Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
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Honestly, unlike those simple-minded idiotas on Twitter, r/China, Facebook and Youtube, this is yet to be over. This is especially true with the military exercise zones being set up around Taiwan by the PLA from Aug 4-7.

There are several types of key movements that I believe we should look out and monitor in the coming days (and weeks) to see if there is any indication on significant responses against Taipei and Washington DC by Beijing:

1. Movements of the US Navy warships - In particular, those CVNs and LHDs in the Pacific Ocean, especially in the Western Pacific. Are they going to leave the areas close to Taiwan immediately after Pelosi departed Taiwan for Japan/South Korea? Or would they be lingering around Taiwan for unspecified amount of time in order to observe the PLA exercise around Taiwan?

2. Movements of the civilian RORO ships - I remember one or few of the guys here has posted regarding the movements of several RORO ships that are outside of their scheduled routes. Where are they now? And for how long do those RORO ships stay around the Fujian area?

3. Movements of PLAGF and PLARF troops, equipment and vehicles - There are lots of video footages showcasing PLAGF and PLARF equipment and vehicles being transported around Fujian province that has been surfacing yesterday (Aug 2). Problems are - When are those footage being taken? Where are those equipment and vehicles now? Where are they getting moved to?

(It is also worthy of note that I have seen some comments regarding the video of PLAGF armoured vehicles driving in the streets and freeways of Xiamen, claiming that those footage was taken as early as July 22. Could this mean that there are already troop, equipment and vehicle movements before July 31-Aug 1?)

4. Movements of PLAN warships - Related to those exercise zones announced by the PLA right after Pelosi's plane has landed in Taipei Songshan Airport. Honestly speaking, I don't think the plan was drawn up right after Pelosi has arrived at Taipei - It was drafted up much earlier than that. So the question is - How many of the PLAN warships would be leaving port? And what is their status of activity and alert in the coming days?

5. Movements of ROC military - The authorities of Taiwan has already raised the alert status of their military to the near-highest, if not the highest level on Aug 1. Recall that they already cancelled all leaves of their troops to "prepare for war". Would this alert status be dropped after Pelosi's plane departed Taiwan? If not, how long would the alert status be maintained? And what is their mobilization status?

6. Movements of higher-ranking government officials near the regions, and in Beijing - If there is some sort of unusual movements of high-ranking government official convoys being spotted, then it could mean something. Although, this is a very hard task to be done reliably, I'm afraid.

7. Movements of assets and finances belonging to China, both at home and abroad, especially in the Western Hemisphere - If there is significant pullout of Chinese investments, selling off stocks and US Treasury Bonds, among many other things, this should tell something as well.

8. Etc.
 
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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
One potential flash point is if Taiwanese warships ignore the fire warning and enter these zones and accidents happen. I hope they have a backup plan for that because they sure didn't have one for their PR.
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They have a backup plan for their PR. Moving live ammo firing ships within 12nm of Taiwan island is now the weakest possible step China will take, with most expecting an even stronger response. If Taiwan fires the first shot it gives great casus belli to decimate them with strikes, even if the army likely isn't ready right now to land on the island.

Short of outright doing armed reunification immediately, these plans allow China to come ahead pretty far, as they can normalize the armed forces ignoring all of ROC's territory control. Pelosi will leave and be forgotten in a few months, the PLA will now be a permanent friend of the Taiwan Island coastline.
 
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dingyibvs

Senior Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
Remains to be seen. But why didn't they make this move as soon as China heard of the news that was leaked by FT? Or perhaps they did but I am just not aware of it (someone can correct me on this).

When Xi did the same dog and pony show in Doklam, the Indians became emboldened and Ladakh happened. When Trump did his trade war, and the wars America under his leadership made what did Xi do? Huawei has been hammered to oblivion in terms of their smart phone business, Tiktok was almost sold to a U.S. based company. Has there been any moves where China was on the attack or doing the initiative or has it always been China on the reaction side. When the covid-19 first flared up officially in Wuhan, China what did China under Xi do that could have made the Wuhan virus narrative less palatable in the consciousness of the world's population? Nothing. Everything on the surface seems just endless reaction to American led provocation after the other.

This latest episode, why couldn't China's diplomatic corps took the initiative and call for an emergency meeting at the UN prior to Pelosi's visit to raise the f..ng profile of this case at the possible highest level because this is about a sovereign countries sovereignty which is supposedly recognized by 180 countries in the UN. Why not put those western countries on the spot under the media spotlight if they recognize Taiwan as an independent country or not because if those countries ambassadors publicly affirm that Taiwan is indeed part of China and that Beijing is the SOLE LEGAL government of China then what the U.S. is doing along with her vassals are nothing short of breaching a country’s sovereignty. Which is the SAME legal argument that these western hypocrites are using against Russia. They either put up or shut up where they stand on Taiwan.

Use the very "rules based order" that America loves to crow on them and see how they squawk. But no, they can't even freaking do that, instead they go on this high minded moralistic talk where no one freaking listen when you're not feared.

Xi is far more harsher to his domestic enemies than he is to the foreigners whom have caused far more lasting damage to his country that he serves. So what is Xi going to do when AUKUS focus finally comes into play? Would he do something when ASIAN nato somehow by some miracle happens?

The leadership of China needs a Mao level balls of bravery.

No one is asking or least of all in China mainland advocating for decolonization of the west because that's dumb, stupid, and waste of Chinese lives. Their primary interest is first and foremost to see the country restored as one with all its missing pieces together as one. And for the country to be as prosperous as possible that can and will trade with everyone at every level. That's it.

This decolonizing the west smacks of imperialism that has never been part and parcel of the Chinese DNA. The Chinese ain't the Mongols nor the yellow people ascended from that branch.

If the West wants to disintegrate let them kill each other till their hearts content. I just feel that Chinese diaspora who are residing in the west are the one's advocating for this quixotic vision. Sorry it ain't going to happen, it's not in the Chinese interest to do so nor would it have any support from the Chinese Mainland people.
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I think the question you should ask is this: is China stronger now vis-a-vis its opponents (India, US, etc) in all the examples you listed, or weaker?

The status quo is that China is getting stronger whether militarily or economically each day vs. its opponents. What should its opponents do in this scenario? Do whatever they can do disrupt the status quo, of course. What should China do? Do whatever it can to preserve the status quo.

Every decision should be made with sound logic, not emotions. The west will continue to disturb the status quo, and each attempt should be studied as it's own case. In Huawei's case, it galvanized the Chinese semi industry like no subsidy ever could or would, so it didn't need a response. In the Pelosi case, it'll normalize higher level visits by foreign officials, so it does warrant a response.

The response also should be tailored to each situation. The provocation in this case may have come from the US, but the response should be directed toward Taiwan. Taiwan is the main prize here, and if the US is seen to be unable to offer any support beyond PR stunts, then it'd be an even bigger PR hit to the US as well.

Let's wait to see what happens first. IMO there'll be something more obviously substantial coming from China than military exercises. I think if they didn't plan to physically stop Pelosi from visiting and had no follow on actions planned then the Chinese government wouldn't have broadcasted the event so widely. I think Xi is trying to drum up support for something big, I just don't know what yet.
 
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Lime

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anyone know whether China would unify Taiwan without the spy event in 1996?

Maybe they will complete it this time?
 
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