Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
"How dare you criticize God's will? He is all-knowing and wise."
If there was an all-knowing God, that's how he should be treated. Problem is, we have never seen evidence that he exists. However, there is, undisputedly, a CCP, and they know more classified information than we do and they have a track record of success.
Just because I don't know exactly what China's military spending is - which isn't entirely accurate since people who do know put it at 1.7% - doesn't mean I then substitute a comforting story that the secret number is much higher. Since you seem obsessed with a concrete ask, here it is: I want the official Chinese defense budget to reach the 2% NATO minimum. That's a thing with me.
2% because that's NATO's thing? Didn't know you liked to follow the West... What else should China follow the West in? Democracy? LOL China has our own system and we grow faster than they do.

Besides, did you want it to be a public 2% or they can do it unannounced like you said before? If they don't announce it, how do you know if it has or hasn't been done?
Its growth rate is limited by funding. When J-20s are produced at a fraction of the rate of F-35s, I know the problem isn't technological, but funding limitations.
Do you know the needs set forth? Did they need more J-20s to defend China and its interests? Did they want to wait until WS-15 or other technologies are ready? Do they have a plan to make do with what they have now? You kinda need to be in the room during this conversation to have a good chance of understanding how to budget.
This isn't government spending but societal spending more broadly. The part that should be diverted is the part that blew up real estate prices to malignant levels. China's youth unemployment is at high double-digit levels and a healthy chunk of them have STEM degrees, I'm sure that with a little extra currency the Chinese military-industrial complex can go on a hiring spree.
Do they have projects to be put on? Institutions that hire in order to hire are fraught with inefficiency and national security is one where that can be a dangerous game. From what I know, the Chinese military has its projects and it hires all the people it needs; it does not lack people nor does it hire them without real use.
This reads like a fervent religious believer's conviction in his deity's omniscience.
And your post reads like a foolishly arrogant person demanding that his will be recognized over the analyses of experts that have classified knowledge that he doesn't and who have a resounding track record of success which he doesn't. Usually, when one finds himself in this situation, it is due to his simple mind misrecognizing itself as a genius.
I can believe that 1. The CPC is the best governing body on Earth by far and 2. It needs to correct course on the issue of military spending. They're not mutually exclusive and I don't require the CPC to be 100% right on every issue ever until the end of time.
They're not mutually exclusive but you are by no means equipped with the knowledge to make that determination.
We don't know in detail but we do have some idea. We know, for instance, that the WS-15 will enter mass production in a couple of years. We know that CAC pawned off J-10 production to GAIC to expand capacity for J-20s. All very welcome. But we also know that CAC isn't expanding its factory space or hiring substantially more workers. I would like that to change.
Would CAC like that to change? Once again, is an expansion not happening because they need it but cannot afford it or because it's not needed now given the situation at CAC/the plans of the PLAAF? Do you know better or does CAC/CCP know better?
How recently has that rate been calibrated because it strikes me that it hasn't been calibrated for a while. Perhaps a recalibration is in order.
It's recalibrated with every new meeting, political change and every new technological advancement. Recalibrating it doesn't mean it's going to be what you want.
Yes, but that doesn't mean that China can be lazy and complacent or think that the appropriate defense spending rate in 1993 should hold indefinitely.
China's advancements and accelerated developments should have cued you that there is no complacency but regarding the defense spending level, go back to the first sentence of this post.
True, yet I still assume it. Just because they're excellent doesn't mean they're infallible or that in this specific circumstance I might *gasp* know better.
In the last post, you said you would not presume to be their teacher and now you presume you do. So this paragraph will need to reappear:

"And your post reads like foolishly arrogant person demanding that his will be recognized over the analyses of experts that have classified knowledge that he doesn't and who have a resounding track record of success which he doesn't. Usually, when one finds himself in this situation, it is due to his simple mind misrecognizing itself as a genius."
 
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texx1

Junior Member
Its possible but it would depend on their assessment of PLA strength as well as other factors whereas in your scenario they would be already in a protracted war with China with no choice in the matter. One is a guarantee the other is optional. Even if it happens it would still likely be restricted to the border dispute whereas in an all out war the stakes are a lot higher. Again Taiwan is the weaker opponent not India, India can be sustained for far longer. How exactly are you going to wipe India off the board? It would require a prolonged major scale war not some small scale defensive campaign. Turn what is essentially a border skirmish into a protracted large scale war? US is still ambiguous on the defense of Taiwan and there is no telling if China goes to war with India especially as the offending side the US wouldn’t come to their defense either(it would be a much better justification since they are a sovereign nation and more nations will side with India).

India couldn't fight a protracted war with China at Galwan due to ammo supply issues (very little live fire videos) and poor logistics in 2020. China had a good chance of winning a punitive defensive war which could have forced India into some kind of settled/signed peace over the border issues.

I am sure PRC would have offered somewhat favorable terms (within reason) after defeating India given PRC's defensive nature. There was an opportunity to pressure India into a signed border settlement. Anyway, this is getting off-topic so this is last I will say about Galwan.
 

Yommie

Junior Member
Registered Member
What I am refering to is the specific threat by China against Taiwan on destroying the TSMC plants in Taiwan, as per mentioned by @ember.

If China attacks and takes over Taiwan while leaving the TSMC plants intact, those plants can be restarted and put back into operation soon enough when proper law and order have been restored on the island. Then things would have gone back to normal in a couple of months.

Destroying the plants will not help China achieve any of that.

Compared to China, Taiwan is only a drop in the bucket. 20 million people compared to 1,400 million people. Whatever TSMC has, China can make no problem, and in far greater scale. Even if TSMC is completely blown up, it does not affect anything of any consequence.
 

Aegis21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Speaking about blood… if there’s any sort of large movement of blood/medical equipment to provinces near Taiwan, I think we can safely assume that some sort of conflict is imminent. I say this because the same thing happened prior to the invasion of Ukraine. At the start it all seemed like one of the many exercises Russia had been conducting along the border but once the blood showed up I knew the shooting would start, the only question was “in how many hours/days?” Blood isn’t necessary if you’re doing military exercises, it’s only necessary for a war.

Now, I don’t know if this source is accurate or not, I’m just sharing some observations. Hopefully it won’t come to the point where this happens.
 

ironborn

Junior Member
Registered Member
India couldn't fight a protracted war with China at Galwan due to ammo supply issues (very little live fire videos) and poor logistics in 2020. China had a good chance of winning a punitive defensive war which could have forced India into some kind of settled/signed peace over the border issues.

I am sure PRC would have offered somewhat favorable terms (within reason) after defeating India given PRC's defensive nature. There was an opportunity to pressure India into a signed border settlement. Anyway, this is getting off-topic so this is last I will say about Galwan.
If India trying to start a second front in a hot war with China, their new capital would be called New New Delhi.
 

Jj888

New Member
Registered Member
Hitting Guam is fine for me.
More or less excuses, what's the difference? Their excuses were always lame. They will do whatever they want with excuses or without them. Unless, China finally shows courage. In 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040,.. some of you will still say that is still not the time and that China is still weak and that the USA are still more powerful...
What was the last big American geopolitical success? Removing Gaddaffi in 2011? God knows who controls Libya now, Americans certainly don't control it.
They failed to
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, they failed to
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, they were defeated by the Taliban,
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(while American soldiers were hiding in bunkers), they failed to protect the Ukrainian regime they installed, they failed to integrate Ukraine into NATO...
China clearly doesn’t want to dominate the world.

China wants to protect it’s own territory & people. The red lines are meant for protection! When the red lines are crossed, clear action have to be taken! warnings have been given & repeated.

usa likes to treat the world as its playground with bombs & removing leaders that does not agree with their demands. These days are over.

Their no boots on action foreign ground clearly shows their weakness. F35 with faulty seats at this moment, what a joke.

This trip itinerary had been officially announced & it will be followed. Any deviation will be discouraged by the leaders of the 4 host countries & its citizens
 
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