Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
There is a former Dutch marine who did research on conflicts and he came up with a model that calculated and predicted that WWIII could begin somewhere around 2020, +/- 2 years. According to him the WW would go on for 16 years if I remember correctly, and would completely change the powerbalance in the world.

I thought I would remind you guys because of all the things currently happening in the world...

Edit: I found a vid unfortunately in Dutch only



If anyone's interested in a general read (from a recent article referencing what sequ is talking about).

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US bioweapon Covid-19 can be considered opening shots of WW3 ... the same virus that has no natural traceability and proven to not come from bats/snakes/pangolins found in nature and the same virus who's "ancestorial trace" that was detected in wastewater in many European nations as far back as 2019... the same one the US mostly refuses to test their own wastewater from 2020 and 2019 (except in Virginia and California). So even on the year this isn't necessarily inaccurate despite the suggested margin of error.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
This whole situation reminds me of two sun tzu quotes

Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak” - Sun Tzu,

It is the rule in war, if ten times the enemy's strength, surround them; if five times, attack them; if double, be able to divide them; if equal, engage them; if fewer, defend against them; if weaker, be able to avoid them. - Sun Tzu

I feel the US crossing china red line and goading china to make the first attack cause they feel they have the advantage and can win, especially since they can hit China mainland easier than vice versa. Is this a case of the US feeling like china is weaker or is China's pretending to be weaker ?

China should not take the bait unless they are sure they can evenly match the US in that region. I hope china does not get goaded if they aren't ready. Otherwise the US has succeeded in choosing the time and place for the battle and and forcing china to respond. Seems like a lot of people on this forum feels if china doesn't respond then Xi will be gone. Doesn't that just make it easier for the US to dictate the time and place of the battle if they can easily goad china into launching something they are not ready for?

I feel china will not shoot first but will do do flyover of Taiwan or something forceful but fall short of a hot war.
 

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
The U.S. does have a huge military advantage, especially against China, but this path of escalation is not that easy to control. This is especially true now that we are at war with Russia. Russia does have a very large stockpile of nuclear warheads and means to deliver them. If the U.S. initiate a single nuclear bomb at a military target, the minimum of nuclear escalation, the Chinese will surely respond. There is no lack of U.S. military targets surrounding China. Now what? A losing conventional war may end this way, but the U.S. will lose big if we initiate a conventional war that ended this way. The Chinese will get to keep all the gains and the U.S. will lose significant military prestige around the world. We may lose East Asia if the Chinese are able to take a few islands on the first island chain.
Rest assured China now is no easy pushover! Try, you will get more than you bargain for!
The US started the war in Ukraine by expanding NATO into Ukraine. The US starts the war in Taiwan by Pelosi visit. The US is not a nation of peace. The US is a nation of war.
This demon-cratic country national history is about 240 years within which only about 20 years without directly of indirectly in wars! Create wars and it can sell weapons and make big bucks! innocents suffer!
The US started the war in Ukraine by expanding NATO into Ukraine. The US starts the war in Taiwan by Pelosi visit. The US is not a nation of peace. The US is a nation of war.

The US started the war in Ukraine by expanding NATO into Ukraine. The US starts the war in Taiwan by Pelosi visit. The US is not a nation of peace. The US is a nation of war.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
what I doesn't make sense for me, and which makes me worried. If Xi spoke with Biden, and was made clear that Biden could not stop Pelosi from going, then having the Foreign Ministry make further statements over the weekend to deter her from going only increases the costs of letting it slide. Also, the propaganda ministry does have a collar on Hu Xijin, or does it?
Maybe because the government, who has access to all info on this, already knows they're likely to prevail in a conflict?

A lot of people here thinking war is just as simple as matching starting numbers when not a single large conflict has gone that way historically.

Chinese planners are generally not beholden to save face like their American counterparts, because its not taboo for them to admit weakness or mistakes. So when they think escalating the situation with words and then readying troops is the best option, it is almost certainly an objective decision.

To those thinking China would fear any form of economic "sanction" from America, have you learned nothing from Russia? It is America who would fear being sanctioned by China. After 6 months of complete sanctions, the ruble has reached an all time high and said sanctions are revealed to be unaffordable in the long term. We're talking about a Germany sized economy here.

Regarding Hu Xijin, no, he's just a civilian journalist writing his opinion as a journalist. No-one can stop him unless what hes writing breaks laws about national security.
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
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India couldn't fight a protracted war with China at Galwan due to ammo supply issues (very little live fire videos) and poor logistics in 2020. China had a good chance of winning a punitive defensive war which could have forced India into some kind of settled/signed peace over the border issues.

I am sure PRC would have offered somewhat favorable terms (within reason) after defeating India given PRC's defensive nature. There was an opportunity to pressure India into a signed border settlement. Anyway, this is getting off-topic so this is last I will say about Galwan.
Not going to happen they haven’t settled in the past and especially not in 2020 with America’s backing. India would have most likely be played like a proxy and wars today are not going to be restricted to just that particular disputed area. Current border is the most realistic option for settlement relatively speaking.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
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4channer

New Member
Registered Member
These are Type 63A amphibious tanks
Where? Those are wheeled amphibious assault guns/tank destroyers ZTL-11.

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Anyway, these beauties will lead the way if something happens:

52253763193_89a1c6bb73_k.jpg
 
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