Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[BoraTas]

China is still doing business with India despite being economically attacked by India. No wonder all of those China/India border meetings never result in any agreements. Why would India stop making unjust demands?

US would still sanction PRC over taking outlying Taiwanese islands. Why risk overwhelming sanctions and likely asset seizure over such small payoff? If war broke out over Taiwan with US, PRC should go big or go home instead of following Russian half-hearted attempt in Ukraine. We can all see how that's going.

US would still supply Taiwan with intel and military aids carried by US flagged ships even when PRC chose to only attack Taiwanese arm forces in hope of limiting the scale of the conflict.

The problem is when you slap all of your sanctions on China, it leaves nothing to serve as a further disincentive for China to invade the main island. A few months ago I was thinking like this too but my conversations with Chinese people on Quora changed this. Taking the islands change the strategic picture. And I don't think the current pro-independence groups in Taiwan give a hoot about outlying islands' historical governance. Tsai admin has already defined the nation of Taiwan's lands as all landmasses the Taiwanese gov currently rules. Taiwan is not a province name in these people's rhetoric. And Taiwanese independists don't care about even unification supporters living on the main island.

 

[4channer]

What part of MORE excuses don't you understand? Taiwan doesn't want these rocks anyway cause they are part of Fujian province and a roadbloack to TAIWAN independence. China has the moral high ground right now, and hitting Taiwan will be seen as unnecessarily aggressive. If anything has to be hit by a rocket, then let it be Guam instead.

Hitting Guam is fine for me.
More or less excuses, what's the difference? Their excuses were always lame. They will do whatever they want with excuses or without them. Unless, China finally shows courage. In 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040,.. some of you will still say that is still not the time and that China is still weak and that the USA are still more powerful...
What was the last big American geopolitical success? Removing Gaddaffi in 2011? God knows who controls Libya now, Americans certainly don't control it.
They failed to

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, they failed to

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, they were defeated by the Taliban,

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(while American soldiers were hiding in bunkers), they failed to protect the Ukrainian regime they installed, they failed to integrate Ukraine into NATO...

 

[siegecrossbow]

Has her husband shorted TSMC?

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What’s the effing point you only got a decade to spend the money anyway, and shorter should something go wrong?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

What’s the effing point you only got a decade to spend the money anyway, and shorter should something go wrong?

Well, they have children and grandchildren, right? Although in their case, the more accurate term would be "spawn."

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Damn.
So if a dog bites you what would you do? Cower in fear and try to appease him and reach a compromise with the dog? No of course not, you have to stand your ground and make the dog your b**** (at least in your own territory) and make him understand you are the boss here or else the dog will make you his b**** inside your own territory.
You are using capability as an excuse to why China should just turn the other cheek to the US. when even a far much smaller country (Russia) invaded Ukraine (an actual country, not a province) yet the US still didn't dare to send it's military directly against Russia and instead decided to make do with weapons shipments and sanctions. And those sanctions are devastating western economies, if they repeat those sanctions against China then that would be the end of western economies.

The US didn't corner any one but itself, the US is at it's weakest point since more than a decade now, due to faulty covid policy plus the Russia sanctions, their actions are out of a position of weakness not that of strength.

If you bow to this kind of a person:

Then imagine just how much would that embolden the upcoming Trump administration.

Let's hope the leadership in Beijing doesn't share your opinion.

I am not saying China shouldn't respond forcefully. We should! However now is not the best time. Beijing should reserve its right to respond opportunistically at a time of its own choosing, say in late October, when there are less typhoon over the Strait or next March, when Xi solidifies his own power after all the political struggles he has to sit through. Now if Xi were to respond tomorrow, the PLA is not in its best position. If the PLA were to take massive casualties without the conquest of Taiwan, Xi would surely lose his prospective third term (exactly what China's rivals desire). With no apparent heir, that would lead to a political crisis worse than 1989 or 1976. Should such crisis occur, it would be primetime for the Anglos to interfere and install pro-West CCP leaders (if not a colour revolution overthrown CCP rule).

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

U only designs are inferior designs. China is a recognized nuclear weapons state, so it doesn't worry about detection of its activities. Furthermore, China already has enough plutonium for a couple thousand (granted the error bars are quite large) warheads before it needs to make more. China with ~2,000 more warheads is a lot more difficult to threaten than China today.

Plant 404 still exists. Whatever capital cost savings are dwarfed by the increased weight of the warheads, requiring much more throw weight to deliver the same kilotonnage.

That was a test, not a production weapon. All known Chinese warheads in military service (535 and 575) use plutonium pits.

well, China only has enough Pu for ~1500 warheads total at the high end. Maybe for strong countervalue - as opposed to minimum countervalue - 1500 is sufficient. That means taking out some economic/population AND some conventional military sites. If you want parity or if estimated Pu production is on the low end, the only possibility is U only designs.

I've been searching for sources on existing Chinese designs, I can't find them, but I don't have an ideological aversion to simplified "inferior" designs. I've seen in my career that perfect is the enemy of good enough, shit happens and you just have to deal, and sometimes either an opportunity or crisis comes along and you just go with what you have.

 

[Temstar]

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Xiamen right now





Medium mixed brigade?

 

[siegecrossbow]

Well, they have children and grandchildren, right? Although in their case, the more accurate term would be "spawn."

What makes you think children and grand children will get to enjoy the money?

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

If you want parity or if estimated Pu production is on the low end, the only possibility is U only designs.

Uh... no. The other possibility is restarting plutonium production. Do you people think China forgot how to make plutonium or something? The reactor it used to make the plutonium it has is still there!

I've been searching for sources on existing Chinese designs, I can't find them, but I don't have an ideological aversion to simplified "inferior" designs. I've seen in my career that perfect is the enemy of good enough, shit happens and you just have to deal, and sometimes either an opportunity or crisis comes along and you just go with what you have.

Or, you know, you could just solve the problem in the same way you solved it before.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

What makes you think children and grand children will get to enjoy the money?

I'm afraid that whooshed by me, chief. Is this a "we're all going to die in nuclear fire" joke?