Chinese semiconductor industry

[WTAN]

@WTAN Sir, good day, glad to hear from you again, have you had any news about the 14nm domestic equipment processes and its progress and if it can be completed within the year?

Most of the local Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers have already started R&D on or have already developed and released 14nm Equipment. CETC, North etc. You can check their Websites.
Once you have developed a completely localised 28nm Manufacturing Line, it is much easier to make improvements to current equipment and take the next step which is to move into 14nm.
This how US and Japanese Equipment makers did it by moving step by step or from one node to the next.
It wont take too long, probably by next year, much of the locally made 14nm equipment should be ready.
There is also huge quantities of second hand 14nm Equipment which can be picked up to help the process along.
SMIC is currently building a De-Americanised 14nm Line.

 

[Oldschool]

The CCP can be blamed in the same sense that you can blame a kid for getting a 98 instead of 100 on a test when the class average is in the 30's. Did you really expect that China overtaking the US would be smooth and without struggle? That it's doable and happening at all is amazing. The Chinese government, with its limited influence over Chinese companies out to make money, was at least able to make sure that China put itself in a position where it has a good fighting chance to overcome America's tech war. And don't forget, this tech war is quite limited to only a few things that America can target because the Chinese government covered so many points so well. A lesser government could have left many more points open for sanctions and crumpled under the stress of having too many things to catch up on simultaneously. You are asking China to be perfect, to be impervious to all strain and laugh off all challenge. It's not realistic; the CCP is a young government and it still managed to get China to a place where Chinese scientists can kick things into overdrive to win, but you are saying they shouldn't even face this trial or tribulation. No other government is even able to give their scientists the chance to be the strongest in the world. You ask for perfection; you ask too much. No government in the world can fight China's fight. Be thankful for the fighting chance and use it.

Cardinal Sin
Don't mistake activities for achievement.


China is gonna be judged by end result only. Don't compare China to other country because other countries don't have to and US lead western Bloc sanctioning on China only.

China have to because it needs that survive.


Has it established 100 % fully running Indeginous tech production line at mature
Tech
65nm, 55nm, 45nm,
Or medium tech of 16nm, 14nm, 12nm ??

China has not demonstrated full independence at any one of those above nodes yet.

Maybe very soon but we don't know until indeginous line pumping out parts.

Remember, only end result counts not activities

 

[Oldschool]

Not a tech expert but this video below shows what happen when politics gets involved in business affair. In summary China is the main market and SMIC is her Champion, if all those FABS being built in the US become operational to whom it will sell? the US demand alone is not that big to absorb the increase capacity. And the current shortages is an artificial one due to the Chinese customer stocking up supply of chips (an ex. Huawei). A bust is coming and Mr Morris Chang is sounding the alarm and he is hedging his bets, if SMEE 28NM DUVL is proven that it is capable as the latest ASML DUVL, you bet that TSMC will used it and the Chinese gov't will encourage it. Cause Having an experience and world leading FABS company verifying your machine and the feedback will further enhanced your technological base.

And also its a sample of how the American operates, with excess capacity and investment when the bust came those company will be bankrupt and the American will have it for a song. That's a nice way of stealing others tech with other means...LOL

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That's why I am saying TSMC 28nm expansion in 2022 gonna squeeze into SMIC 28nm expansion

 

[caudaceus]

Not a tech expert but this video below shows what happen when politics gets involved in business. In summary China is the main market and SMIC is her Champion, if all those FABS being built in the US become operational to whom it will sell? the US demand alone is not that big to absorb the increase capacity. And the current shortages is an artificial one due to the Chinese customer stocking up supply of chips (an ex. Huawei). A bust is coming and Mr Morris Chang is sounding the alarm and he is hedging his bets, if SMEE 28NM DUVL is proven that it is capable as the latest ASML DUVL, you bet that TSMC will used it and the Chinese gov't will encourage it. Cause Having an experience and world leading FABS company verifying your machine and the feedback will further enhanced your technological base.

And also its a sample of how the American operates, with excess capacity and investment when the bust came those company will be bankrupt and the American will have it for a song. That's a nice way of stealing others tech with other means...LOL

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Most of the local Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers have already started R&D on or have already developed and released 14nm Equipment. CETC, North etc. You can check their Websites.
Once you have developed a completely localised 28nm Manufacturing Line, it is much easier to make improvements to current equipment and take the next step which is to move into 14nm.
This how US and Japanese Equipment makers did it by moving step by step or from one node to the next.
It wont take too long, probably by next year, much of the locally made 14nm equipment should be ready.
There is also huge quantities of second hand 14nm Equipment which can be picked up to help the process along.
SMIC is currently building a De-Americanised 14nm Line.

Can they finish it within a year or two for the de Americanised 14nm? That could be huge boon for Huawei.

P.S.
I just read some complain from DC think tankie regarding Chinese HSR. what I learned is that while it's difficult for Chinese to reach 1 from 0. However the moment they achieved that they can scale like crazy.

 

[Oldschool]

Ultra-precision CNC horizontal axis round table grinder for lithography machine projection objective lens parts
PMT ULTRA 700VG CNC

最近有个新闻说长春国科精密光学技术有限公司和北京博鲁斯潘精密机床有限公司联合搞的“光刻机投影物镜零件超精密数控卧轴圆台磨床 型号：PMT U1TRA 700VG CNC

 

[Oldschool]

@Oldschool Is Huawei being supported in any way by the Chinese government in these troubling times. I'd expect them to do so. It's imperative that Huawei be sustained and kept from toppling down. So far, I've not read anything that points to even a passive support from the government. If true, why?

Not obvious.
Maybe funding them for their fab expansion.
Or give them easy access to mining, agriculture, fishing industry.

Cellphone and server unit would coming into halt within couple years.

If Chinese government be like US government , the more aggressive type , it would demand SMIC and local TSMC manufacture for Huawei at 12nm and 14nm under the table. Which is perfectly doable. Those Huawei parts mostly be used for domestic usage.

But Chinese government will never be this aggressive. It should be sometimes.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

That's why I am saying TSMC 28nm expansion in 2022 gonna squeeze into SMIC 28nm expansion

Bring the numbers. What is Chinese demand for 28nm wafers? How many are made by SMIC? How many are made by TSMC? What are the elasticities of supply and the price effects? There's near infinite demand for 28nm in China. Another 20kwpm won't change prices

 

[Deleted member 15949]

Cardinal Sin
Don't mistake activities for achievement.


China is gonna be judged by end result only. Don't compare China to other country because other countries don't have to and US lead western Bloc sanctioning on China only.

China have to because it needs that survive.


Has it established 100 % fully running Indeginous tech production line at mature
Tech
65nm, 55nm, 45nm,
Or medium tech of 16nm, 14nm, 12nm ??

China has not demonstrated full independence at any one of those above nodes yet.

Maybe very soon but we don't know until indeginous line pumping out parts.

Remember, only end result counts not activities

Yes, results. Which country has near growth rates as China has? You didn't need fully indigenous tech before and it's inefficient to do so before. Latent capabilities were there, now that political considerations have changed, those can scale fairly quickly.

 

[Tam]

This interesting infographic about AESA radars in generation points to 3D MMC (3D Multi Chip Module) being used on the radar of the J-20.

A short primer on Multi Chip Modules and stacked ships.

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[ansy1968]

Sir thanks to both of you , really appreciated your valuable contribution as always.

@WTAN
Once you have developed a completely localised 28nm Manufacturing Line, it is much easier to make improvements to current equipment and take the next step which is to move into 14nm.

SMIC is currently building a De-Americanised 14nm Line.

Sir @caudaceus and I may want to know if the progress is possible this year? I'M an optimistic person and need to temper my expectation a bit, but I feel there is a major breakthrough and China being tight lip and calm makes me more anxious....LOL

@Oldschool
That's why I am saying TSMC 28nm expansion in 2022 gonna squeeze into SMIC 28nm expansion

Sir copy that, since its SMIC main revenue generator then maybe it may incentivized them to move up market and focus on the more lucrative 14nm , 12nm and even the 7nm node. Competition is good and TSMC going down the 28nm route again in China for me is a bad business decision on their part, that sector had been commoditized, why not expand their production in Nanjing by introducing their more advance 14nm ,12nm ,10nm and even their 7nm node. There is NO direct local competition by not doing that it allow SMIC to grow.

Sir In my view that decision is made to please the American, that 28nm node is what they needed ASAP, the new FAB in Arizona will be a white elephant cause the demand is not there and if the main target for export is China it will fail cause the cost will be horrendous.