Crisis in the Ukraine

[SampanViking]

This may be the only peer-to-peer war we've seen in a long time where both sides have armour. In all other wars, either nobody had armour, or one side was overwhelmingly superior to the other.

Solarz, you took the words right out of my mouth. To be precise a fully mechanised Peer to Peer conflict.
I have been thinking about this for a couple of days now.
I think that it warrants examination as study in where we are in the balance of technology and how such wars are fought.
My only concern is that to include this in this thread could be a distraction and a major invitation to go offtopic bigtime.
I think therefore that we should have a new thread in the World Military section to cover this and keep this thread purely for the events of the civil war.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

This may be the only peer-to-peer war we've seen in a long time where both sides have armour. In all other wars, either nobody had armour, or one side was overwhelmingly superior to the other.

I would not say true peer to peer. Although the ground forces seem matched. The Ukrainian government has a Air force as yet the Pro Russian militia lack such. That's why Russia supplying BUKs and MANPADs makes sense. They are air denial systems.
politically since Putin and his leadership are leaning hard pro separatist, there has been a demand for Russian federation Military forces to become directly involved. One of the options often discussed is a No Fly Zone. To establish such the Russian Air force would be put face to face with a smaller identical fighter threat mix. Flanker on Flanker Fulcrum on Fulcrum. If such was to happen the chances of getting Russian Military blood spilled and being forced into a larger scale conflict would.be exponential. So use of and supplying SAM systems is a double win for Putin and Russia. It keeps the militia in the fight threatens the UkAF with a threat they will have difficulty dealing with. It also allows Putin to keep his Military directly out of line of fire.

The Pro Russian factions are now tallied as something like 23 Ukrainian government Aircraft shot down.

 

[thunderchief]

A video new this morning and I believe to be from the general vicinity of Donetsk
It shows Armour advancing after fighting and it reoccupying territory and examining a smell smoking burnt out Ukrainian tank.
Trying to work out if its a T64 or T 72

I would say it is T-64 (protruding exhaust, small wheels ...) but I'm not an expert .

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Its a T64. The Pro Russian militia are well know to be operators of the type, and the Ukraine never adopted T72. So the novorussia.... Having any T72 would be a big red flag.
Some probably came from stores in the Crimea, others captured from Ukrainian army but there are also reported that a few can be sourced to Russia.

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[Air Force Brat]

Since you are a long time member here and I still have respect for you. I am going to dismiss your not so subtle personal attack as an uncharacteristic emotional outburst. And I will even say that I agree with you that both of us can be accused of wearing tin-foil hats. It's only a matter of perspectives from the outside viewers.

You obviously have come to the conclusion that Eastern rebels are responsible for the incident before any conclusions issued by international investigators. That's fine. At the end day, you have to choose a side. And you have chosen yours.

Here is mine. I believe it is disgusting and hubristic to launch a multiple pronged biased media blitz against Russia before offering any real substantial proof (outside anonymous sources from an intelligence agency that said WMD existed in Iraq). When I read Ron Paul's piece, I was heartened to see a prominent American who had a distinguished political career would even try to clear away some of the noises perpetuated by the mainstream US media and challenge average Americans to examine this tragedy critically. You can consign me to the tin-foil hat crowd anytime you want. But if questioning biased media narrative is now what it takes to be considered as wearing a tin-foil hat, I can assure you in that case I will wear one as a badge of honor.

Actually Tex, if I had an emotional outburst you really would know it, because I save those for people who are habitually and characteristically dishonest, and post nonsense and fabrications to cover up crimes against humanity. I am a long time student of not only the US, UK, Continental Europe, Japan, China, and the former Soviet Union, now Russia and subordinates. When the US is WRONG, I issue an official US Air Force Brat apology, and attempt to right those wrongs, if you do a little research on my posts, you will find a few of those, when I am wrong, and I'm just a dumb hillbilly, I will issue and official US Air Force Brat "personal" apology, and do all in my power to rectify that wrong. I rarely resort to any personal attack, and my humorous suggestion that if you are going to quote Mr. Paul as authoritative, you should wear the customary tin foil hat of his fellow "conspiracy theorists", is not a personal attack.

tex, you are the feller that is "disgusted" when my president, in an uncharacteristic moment of candor, asks Mr. Putin to take responsibility for arming the "Russian separatists" with weapons of mass destruction, that took the lives of 295 innocent men, women, and children. So when Mr. Obama does get it right, and IMHO he has this one pinned, I am going to stand with him, and say "Thank You Mr. President!". There is more than sufficient evidence to establish who supplied the "Russian separatists" with their SAM, if there were a "shred" of doubt, Mr. Obama would not have put himself "out there". I think you owe the president an apology, in fact honestly, I think in this situation, he is far more engaged on a personal level, and should be commended for trying to prevent another tragedy.

 

[texx1]

Actually Tex, if I had an emotional outburst you really would know it, because I save those for people who are habitually and characteristically dishonest, and post nonsense and fabrications to cover up crimes against humanity. I am a long time student of not only the US, UK, Continental Europe, Japan, China, and the former Soviet Union, now Russia and subordinates. When the US is WRONG, I issue an official US Air Force Brat apology, and attempt to right those wrongs, if you do a little research on my posts, you will find a few of those, when I am wrong, and I'm just a dumb hillbilly, I will issue and official US Air Force Brat "personal" apology, and do all in my power to rectify that wrong. I rarely resort to any personal attack, and my humorous suggestion that if you are going to quote Mr. Paul as authoritative, you should wear the customary tin foil hat of his fellow "conspiracy theorists", is not a personal attack.

tex, you are the feller that is "disgusted" when my president, in an uncharacteristic moment of candor, asks Mr. Putin to take responsibility for arming the "Russian separatists" with weapons of mass destruction, that took the lives of 295 innocent men, women, and children. So when Mr. Obama does get it right, and IMHO he has this one pinned, I am going to stand with him, and say "Thank You Mr. President!". There is more than sufficient evidence to establish who supplied the "Russian separatists" with their SAM, if there were a "shred" of doubt, Mr. Obama would not have put himself "out there". I think you owe the president an apology, in fact honestly, I think in this situation, he is far more engaged on a personal level, and should be commended for trying to prevent another tragedy.

Regardless of one's feelings for Ron Paul and his supporters, I posted his article not because he's authoritative since he's retired anyway. I posted his words because I support his calm and balanced view, wait for official investigation before running wild with accusations and conjectures.

Is the biased media bliz really going to have a positive impact on the outcome on Ukrainian crisis? Just as many Americans are angry at Putin, I am sure equal numbers of Russian nationals are angry at US for demonizing their president, thus hardening their support for Putin's conduct in Ukraine. In war, it takes two to tango. If we are going to ask Putin to own up his responsibility for arming and supporting the eastern rebels, we should also ask Obama to own up his responsibility for supporting the ouster of a democratically elected president and supporting the current Kiev government.

Few weeks ago, there was an opportunity for negotiated peace between Kiev and rebels. But Kiev government backed out and the killing of innocents resumed. Why didn't Obama place more pressure on Kiev to return to the negotiating table?

Is it really that bad for eastern parts of Ukraine to be self governed and pro-Russia? I think we can agree that all great powers want buffer zones and their own sphere of influence. US has already got western Ukraine and advanced its influence within a 100km of Russia. Is that not enough?

For the record, I am disgusted at biased media narrative, not at Obama. He is the current US president, he is doing what's necessary to expand US global influence. His conduct may be right for some Americans, but it doesn't mean it is right for everyone else in the world.

If Obama really is a humanitarian who wants to prevent any future tragedies, he would use his influence with Kiev to get them back to the negotiating table and promise to punish direct culprits of MH17 shoot down after they have been found and confirmed by international investigators.

Btw calling someone a tin-foiled hat wearer is an insult no matter how you cut it.

 

[cn_habs]

I would say it is T-64 (protruding exhaust, small wheels ...) but I'm not an expert .

I think you are right.

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That link offers the comparison it's obvious to see that the T64 has smaller wheels like those in the video posted above.

Both turrets seem really tiny from above.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Jane's Defence is one of the worlds premier military analyst services. They state.
"The T-64B is the final production configuration of the T-64, including a new hull and new turret armour package, with the T-64BV version being fitted with explosive reactive armour (ERA). The MBT is armed with a 125 mm smoothbore 2A26M2 gun guided by an integrated fire-control system, has a crew of three and features a combat weight of 42.5 tonnes. Outwardly the tank appears similar to the T-72 (particularly when fitted with ERA), but there are several distinguishing differences, including the location of its infrared searchlight (on the left-side of the T-64s turret; on the right-side of the T-72s turret); its road wheels (solid on a T-64; indented on the T-72); and its exhaust"

T64 series was manufactured in the Ukraine almost exclusively and as such the Ukraine ended up with around 2000 of those tanks after the fall of the USSR. The only other nation with large numbers of T64s was Russia but after the fall they were retired in favor of the T90 and Russian manufactured MBTs. Uzbekistan also had 50 of theses tanks all were supposed to be disposed of. The Congo Bought a number from the Russians a few years back.

 

[delft]

Bizarre:

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Ukraine jet hit by 'air-to-air missile' - Ukrainian PM

9 hours ago

As fighting continued in eastern Ukraine, officials in Kiev told the BBC that two aircraft - thought to be military jets - had been downed just 35km (20 miles) from the crash site of flight MH17.

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk later told the BBC that one of the fighters could have been hit by an air-to-air missile.

He did not directly accuse Russia but said it was not brought down by a Ukrainian jet.

Ukrainian pro-Russian rebels have been widely accused of shooting down the MH17 plane on 17 July.

Contains unverified footage courtesy of icorpus.ru

With a video.
Could!

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Sadly they cut to the video during his statement so we can't see much of his body language. But I don't see any blatant tells of a lie. IE covering his face touching his head, looking away awkwardly, he does look down and to the left but that's not always a tell.
so I believe he at least believes what he is saying. That is of course opinion.
now possibilities for air to air.

One blue on blue. Something happened and a Ukrainian jet engaged a Ukrainian jet. Could have been any number of causes.

Two Russian Air force. This would be the most important game Changer yet it would mean Putin has loosed the Dogs or war and is now to some degree allowing the Russian Air Force beyond Crimea.

Three. The Pro Russian militias have begun establishing there own air force. Aircraft could have been taken from Crimea or captured bases in rebel territory. Pilots might be defectors or Russian "Volunteers" its not unheard of from time to time for popular rebellions to gain air power. Usually the Aircraft are lower end fighters like the mig21. The question is one of resources. Ammo, fuel maintenance. The jets would have to be operated at a sophisticated base with a established secure supply chain. The base would need a runaway and control structures. Ammo bunkers spare parts storage. Russian Jets are notoriously rugged and designed for use from improvised air fields so it doesn't need to be pristine. A high way tunnel with a good strip of road and some secondary buildings could work. Next is a question of tactics. Does this hunter use Russian airspace as a safe zone? Does he operate beyond that line? In which case the Russian Air force is supporting him and may be offering interception data. If not is he on his own? Does he map the earth and then pop up to kill avoiding Ukrainian Radar? Or only pop up for interception?