China's SCS Strategy Thread

[SDtom]

Overconfidence and Incompetence. Just because you have more expensive ship with more fire power doesn't mean you will come out on top. And personnels on both Chinese ship lacked situation awareness, unclear communication with to each other, and not understand the enemy ship resulted in both of your ship crashing into each other. It is laughable and sad.

Play stupid games win stupid prizes. There is no reason whatsoever to play this stupid game with Philippines. The Philippine will continue to bait you like this and this time is how the Chinese side win the stupid prize for playing along.

What the Chinese side should do is to give diplomatic letters to the Philippine government/military to clearly outline how and what China's response will be for any instigation by the Philippine side. Possible responses including but not limited to detain personnel, impound ships, expend current islands and build islands nearer to Philippine mainland. Put the ball on Philippine's side and China must respond appropriately for the next instigation.

China's diplomatic and PR skill is just downright awful and primitive. Even little countries like Philippines and Lithuania can continue to kick and throw mud at China and still can get away with it.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Nothing about this incident benefits China or helps it become a superpower.

This comment has to be the stupidest comment I have read in a long time. And I have been reading a lot of brain dead comments from our Jai Hind friends on Reddit and other platforms.

Superpower is what exactly to you? A country that can just smash their perceived enemies at a minor inconvenience and provocations? If the kind of actions you envisioned actually work, then Russia, India, Israel, and the mightiest of them all, the U.S. wouldn't have waged those useless wars for meagre return to their blood, treasury, and prestige. It's only their preponderance stockpile of Nukes (RUSSIA & U.S. with India, Pakistan, Israel, France, U.K. and N.Korea holding minimal stock piles) that countries have not went all out against them.

The use of force and the application of violence isn't not something that should be trivially applied nor be the first course of action to be recommended as satisfying it is to some and many here on this forum myself included. If you're still gung-ho about the use and utility of force ask Russia, Ukraine, India, the U.S. and Israel how's their actions working out for them.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

I think China should do more than ramming and water canon. This is also a sensitive timing cause Marcos just said that Philippines is going to fight China in a Taiwan war. Overall the trajectory is that Philippines is slowly becoming a new Ukraine in terms of provocations.

I think China will have to do something kinetic like arresting trespassers instead of just expelling them.

There's nothing to be gained by acceding to what your chihuahuas dare you to do - since they're courage relies far too heavily and exclusively from the mercy and patronage of their eternal master, the U.S.

What Bong-bong Jr. is doing is a strategic gamble that would force the U.S. to come and aid in their time of need or being used by the U.S. as an American cause belli for intervening in the TAIWAN reunification against China since the Philippines do have an existing MUTUAL DEFENSE CLAUSE. An invocation that would and could potentially shield the American propaganda and narrative building of being labeled as the aggressor but as A PROTECTOR fulfilling its obligation under international law. Even if the technicalities and rationale is beyond FUBAR what matters is the U.S. ability to craft and build the narrative of defending the defenseless, especially a country that's advertised as a democracy and free like the Philippines.

 

[Reclaimer]

Using a 052D to try to outmaneuver <1500 ton coast guard vessel is certainly a choice...

 

[bsdnf]

In my opinion, while this blunder embarrassed the CCG and the PLAN, it didn't allow the PCG to break through the CCG blockade.

From a maritime law enforcement perspective, the cost of maintaining the CCG's existing blockade remains high, but this is gradually being alleviated by the new generation of patrol vessels.

From the perspective of SCS diplomacy, ASEAN is an important ally of China in the trade war. At this critical juncture, China should not be overly aggressive, lest it raise concerns among the SCS dispute parties.

From the perspective of its diplomacy with the Philippines, China appears to be waiting for the next Duterte with whom it can cooperate, trading easing territorial disputes for Philippine neutrality in relations with Taiwan, to avoid a potential embarrassment for the other side over territorial disputes.

However, If Marcos Jr. truly intends to lead the Philippines back to the first island chain blockade against China, we might witness the rapid islandization and militarization of Huangyan and Renai. Remember, ten years ago, China needed only six months to make an island and another year to build dormitories and airfield.

 

[votran]

There's nothing to be gained by acceding to what your chihuahuas dare you to do - since they're courage relies far too heavily and exclusively from the mercy and patronage of their eternal master, the U.S.

What Bong-bong Jr. is doing is a strategic gamble that would force the U.S. to come and aid in their time of need or being used by the U.S. as an American cause belli for intervening in the TAIWAN reunification against China since the Philippines do have an existing MUTUAL DEFENSE CLAUSE. An invocation that would and could potentially shield the American propaganda and narrative building of being labeled as the aggressor but as A PROTECTOR fulfilling its obligation under international law. Even if the technicalities and rationale is beyond FUBAR what matters is the U.S. ability to craft and build the narrative of defending the defenseless, especially a country that's advertised as a democracy and free like the Philippines.

what ? since when US being label as aggressor in SCS and taiwan issue ?

and they still not yet build the narrative of defending the weak democracy on taiwan or SCS ?

im not sure you are living in different reality or you really believe PRC very successful in term of counter US propagranda in SCS and taiwan matter .

 

[BoraTas]

Overconfidence and Incompetence. Just because you have more expensive ship with more fire power doesn't mean you will come out on top. And personnels on both Chinese ship lacked situation awareness, unclear communication with to each other, and not understand the enemy ship resulted in both of your ship crashing into each other. It is laughable and sad.

Play stupid games win stupid prizes. There is no reason whatsoever to play this stupid game with Philippines. The Philippine will continue to bait you like this and this time is how the Chinese side win the stupid prize for playing along.

What the Chinese side should do is to give diplomatic letters to the Philippine government/military to clearly outline how and what China's response will be for any instigation by the Philippine side. Possible responses including but not limited to detain personnel, impound ships, expend current islands and build islands nearer to Philippine mainland. Put the ball on Philippine's side and China must respond appropriately for the next instigation.

China's diplomatic and PR skill is just downright awful and primitive. Even little countries like Philippines and Lithuania can continue to kick and throw mud at China and still can get away with it.

Prepare to get attacked by people who think China's weird foreign policy choices are some kind of a confucian wisdom. That Zyklon guy just wrote this was the cost of being a superpower. I guess superpower is when you decide to enforce territory by ramming ships and getting a DDG damaged while doing so. This stuff is exactly what the Phillipines wants because even they can continue doing this indefinitely. FWIW, China doesn't even have economic sanctions on the Phillippines.

 

[Helius]

Someone drew this, and it appears to be a 3014 operational error, not 164

That's exactly how it happened. Unlike the conveniently cut small clip put out by the PCG that purports the DDG ramming in between the CCG and PCG boats, this longer cut version shows pretty clearly it was the Filipino boat that was on an intersecting course towards the DDG that led to the collision -

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1954869527080042791

The clear telltale signs are the wakes. Here you can see the PCG speeding in a rightward arc, with the CCG following closely along the same -



Here you can see where that trajectory is heading towards -



The DDG was actually not running towards either vessels, it was in fact attempting to veer off from the PCG which is actively trying to cut across the DDG's bow -



As illustrated, the PCG made a last second left turn to steer away from the DDG's bow, not so lucky for the CCG in pursuit -



A closeup of just how close the PCG was cutting it, literally -



Right as the collision occurred, the PCG made yet another attempt to cut across the DDG's bow by turning sharply to the left -



PCG crossing the DDG's bow again at dangerously close distance -



... Just so they could taking pictures of the chaos unfolded -

 

[Helius]

Cont. -

The DDG continued the pursuit after the PCG made yet another dash across its bow -



And another -





By this point, after the continuous zigzagging across the DDG's bow by the PCG, the DDG ceased its pursuit -

 

[siegecrossbow]

That's exactly how it happened. Unlike the conveniently cut small clip put out by the PCG that purports the DDG ramming in between the CCG and PCG boats, this longer cut version shows pretty clearly it was the Filipino boat that was on an intersecting course towards the DDG that led to the collision -

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1954869527080042791

The clear telltale signs are the wakes. Here you can see the PCG speeding in a rightward arc, with the CCG following closely along the same -

View attachment 157872

Here you can see where that trajectory is heading towards -

View attachment 157880

The DDG was actually not running towards either vessels, it was in fact attempting to veer off from the PCG which is actively trying to cut across the DDG's bow -

View attachment 157874

As illustrated, the PCG made a last second left turn to steer away from the DDG's bow, not so lucky for the CCG in pursuit -

View attachment 157875

A closeup of just how close the PCG was cutting it, literally -

View attachment 157876

Right as the collision occurred, the PCG made yet another attempt to cut across the DDG's bow by turning sharply to the left -

View attachment 157877

PCG crossing the DDG's bow again at dangerously close distance -

View attachment 157878

... Just so they could taking pictures of the chaos unfolded -

View attachment 157879

I think situations like this justify the use of naval cannons…