China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Derpy]

This sort of thing is inevitable with the blocking tactics China have been using, not sure why they would use a destroyer though.

 

[votran]

The problem is that the Philippine military doesn't actually have weapons worth bombing, and even if they were to be destroyed, it wouldn't deter anyone. And yes, as long as they don't overthrow the regime, they can still buy new weapons.

We are not Israelis

lol they can't even buy proper fighter jet yet after so many years , you really think they able to replace all their sea worthy ship quickly to play water cannon , boat ram game again ?

and with their own unstable politics situation , i don't think the current dictator son bong bong jr grovernment can last after getting his ass kicked so hard by PLA . and being left out to dry by US because philipines not valueable enough for a war between US or anyone else vs china

 

[siegecrossbow]

So what is stopping CCG cutters from putting a shell through a PH boat?

No firing first shot policy.

 

[Tomboy]

No firing first shot policy.

Not even a warning shot? I'm pretty sure the CG did this against the Japanese.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Not even a warning shot? I'm pretty sure the CG did this against the Japanese.

For the record I am in favor of the use of warning shots in this scenario. I just don’t think that PLAN allows for this yet.

 

[Inque]

This is the cost of doing business if China wants to stand tall as a superpower.

Nothing to frown over or to get uncomfortable about.

If anything, get used to it.

Nothing about this incident benefits China or helps it become a superpower.

 

[bsdnf]

1/ china not yet taken back taiwan or have any other military/navy support based around western pacific allow navy become real blue water super power yet
so saying US falling in term of deter other big power still too early
2/ NATO biggest expand eastward era is 90 > 2010 when russia still friendly , trying so hard to be good friend , act nice and soft

1. A blue-water navy doesn't become one simply by bombing the insignificant Philippines, and whether the PLA even wants to become one is still debatable.

The US military's widespread sailing and bombing efforts have resulted a significantly damage on fleet's lifespan. To a certain extent (and the decline of the shipbuilding industry) has led to the current narrowing of the gap in naval tonnage between China and the United States, and the upcoming reversal. And Russia's bombing of ISIS in Syria cannot change the reality that it is degenerating into a yellow-water navy.

2. NATO's first eastward expansion was not due to friendship with Russia, but the fact that Russia was weak and could not even express any substantial opposition. NATO's second eastward expansion was because Russia did not quickly resolve the Ukraine issue, proving that it was still weak (although NATO's situation later proved to be equally bad).

If you look back at the timeline, you'll see that NATO, including the United States, adopted a wait-and-see approach in the early stages of the Russo-Ukrainian war, and only gradually escalated their aid to Ukraine after Russia's early defeat was confirmed (well, they thought). Unless the Kiev regime collapses quickly and Russia regains its footing, that would be true sustained deterrence. Otherwise, it would be another Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

[Tomboy]

Pardon me for my question but what is China's official stance on SCS? Is it considered fully Chinese territorial waters within the nine dash line?

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I think China should do more than ramming and water canon. This is also a sensitive timing cause Marcos just said that Philippines is going to fight China in a Taiwan war. Overall the trajectory is that Philippines is slowly becoming a new Ukraine in terms of provocations.

I think China will have to do something kinetic like arresting trespassers instead of just expelling them.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Pardon me for my question but what is China's official stance on SCS? Is it considered fully Chinese territorial waters within the nine dash line?

Official stance is vague. There is talk of indisputable sovereignty and historical rights but nothing specific.

For China, SCS issue is mostly a power play to eject US out of these waters. I think if all SCS countries stopped their US alliances. China would be happy to make more concessions. Ultimately China cares about having control of the islands rather than complete control of the sea and not allowing other countries from fishing or other economic activities.