Miscellaneous News

[ACuriousPLAFan]

The collapse of the SAA is unprecedented. While the rebels in the north has reached the outskirts of Homs, the rebels in the south has already entered the surburbs of Damascus, with the rebels from the southeast threatening to cut the road between the two cities.

The two maps below are only 10 days apart.



At this point, unless evacuated to the coastal regions, Assad's government may not even have a week left - One week plus at most.

 

[iewgnem]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865330859613790715

It doesn't look like Assad even wants to fight considering he rejected Iranian help, hasn't given any public address and SAA is just being ordered to retreat without any fight. Can't blame him, for a doctor the last 10 years was exhausting and not many people will want to go through that again. If the people don't want to focus on the economy, then let them fight, at least he won't be responsible for any destruction.

From a larger perspective it's important to separate the different factions between those allied with Israel and those not. US/Israel still officially consider ISIS to be an enemy, they were effectively allied when fighting the Syrian government, but if ISIS is on Israel's border it becomes a different story. Turkey, FSA and SDF are all openly pro-Palestine, some are fake and are infact allied with Israel, but an alliance out of convinence ends when convience ends.

Similarly SDF has been occupying half of Syria and stealing most of their oil, which is why Syrian economy has been struggling, Assad kept Turkey from SDF, but without them Turkey backed ISIS is unlikely to make peace with the Kurds especially with oil revenue on the line, this fight will end one way or another but neither side is likely to agree to any peace until one is eliminated. Considering Trump's coming to power and has no interest in backing the Kurds, they won't have a good time.

Between all the things around the world, one thing is for sure, the world order is changing and it'll likely take WW3 to make it official.

 

[iewgnem]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865115389199347935

The quote was from a FSA guy, the picture has nothing to do with the quote
- It's interesting Times of Israel tried to insinuate ISIS support Israel.
- It's even more interesting that on Twitter people are offended by the suggestion.

 

[plawolf]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1864718794352140791

Rational: It’s something we would totally do in China’s position, so duh!

 

[tamsen_ikard]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865115389199347935

An sunni islamist group in control of Syria will be a much bigger threat than Hezbollah for Israel. Palestinians are Sunnis too. And Sunni's have always had a much bigger brotherly feeling towards Palestine than Shite groups. Moreover, Turkey is no longer as friendly to Israel with Islamist Erdogan in power. I consider Turkey to be an anti-western trojan horse in Nato, slowly gaining power. Turkey will soon be a bigger threat to US power in the middle-east than even Iran. Turkey has rich heritage of dominating the middle east and they want to regain that dominance once again.

A non-sunni Alawaite government cannot rule a Sunni majority Syria forever, this collapse was bound to happen. Even if this new group is not so pro-Iran, as long as its anti-Israel and anti-US, Iran will find ways to make use of them, and also Russia and China.

 

[TPenglake]

Takfiris have reached the outskirts of Palmyra on motorbikes. Again, the SAA didn't bother to fight them.

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In the past, Palmyra had been liberated twice with the help of Hezbollah and Wagner. It appears that there won't be a third liberation. If Syria won't fight for it's self, then nobody else is gonna fight for Syria again. Even if Assad still have loyalists, how much hope do they have left, after watching the nation so many people fought and died for just crumble in days.

I'm starting to believe that the SAA had chosen to turn on Assad. They would rather defect and surrender than to stand and fight for Syria. All those rumours of a military power struggle behind the scenes are starting to ring true. Why is Assad not coming out to address the nation and rally his troops at this very crucial period? Has he been couped already?

Assad was a classic Middle Eastern dictator who never had the charisma or cult of personality that others in the region, or even his own father, were able to exude over the population. He was Western educated and a fluent English speaker, so RT did a lot of work in recent years to build up his reputation with all those English language interviews. But the problem with propaganda is precisely, which audience are you targeting? All that PR from RT worked wonders to win Assad legions of "anti-imperialist" internet fanboys all over the world, but internet fanboys were not the ones who were going to be coming his rescue if he ever found himself in a situation like he's exactly in today.

On the domestic front, he was just a rump dictator with nothing but sadistic brutes to enforce his rules and the backing of two great powers. And as all tyrants know by the time its too late, fear's all fine and dandy until the population no longer has a reason to fear you.

 

[Sardaukar20]

An analysis of the Syrian War 2.0, and how the the SAA collapsed.

 

[W20]

"A terrible war took over all of Syria: all the cities were divided into two sides"

(Flavius Josephus, Peri haloseos, book II, 462 )*

The civil war in Syria began in 66 when Menahem beheaded the high priest "and burned the Debt archives".

It is very likely that the so-called "Alawites" by the French in 1920 are the descendants of the Yehudim of the 1st century.

---

*: Book II, 462

Δεινὴ δὲ ὅλην τὴν Συρίαν ἐπεῖχεν ταραχή, καὶ πᾶσα πόλις εἰς δύο διῄρητο στρατόπεδα, σωτηρία δὲ τοῖς ἑτέροις ἦν τὸ τοὺς ἑτέρους φθάσαι.

 

[Sardaukar20]

Assad was a classic Middle Eastern dictator who never had the charisma or cult of personality that others in the region, or even his own father, were able to exude over the population. He was Western educated and a fluent English speaker, so RT did a lot of work in recent years to build up his reputation with all those English language interviews. But the problem with propaganda is precisely, which audience are you targeting? All that PR from RT worked wonders to win Assad legions of "anti-imperialist" internet fanboys all over the world, but internet fanboys were not the ones who were going to be coming his rescue if he ever found himself in a situation like he's exactly in today.

On the domestic front, he was just a rump dictator with nothing but sadistic brutes to enforce his rules and the backing of two great powers. And as all tyrants know by the time its too late, fear's all fine and dandy until the population no longer has a reason to fear you.

Taking off the anti-Zionist, and anti-West tinted glass. I realized that Assad's Syria had actually been a Russian and Iranian imperial outpost in the Levant. Russia wanted to retain its last remaining Soviet-era overseas military outpost. Iran wanted to hold onto its Shia crescent from Iraq to Lebanon. There is that Israel problem, but that is for another discussion. Assad's Syria had its positive values such as tolerance for multiple ethnicities and faiths. Many anti-imperialism fanboys and Western conservatives were captivated by this image of Syria. Behind this image are the majority masses of regular Sunni Muslims, mired in poverty and oppression. These people may be oppressed, but that doesn't mean that they'll be benevolent to the minorities once they are able to take power.

Unfortunately for Russia and the Western conservatives, the Middle East was never meant to have an egalitarian society. This concept had only been around since the end of WWII, less than 100 years ago. But Syria was part of the Ottoman Empire for 400 years. Erdogan and Qatar's Muslim Brotherhood did a fantastic job of spreading their version of Islamic conservatism that reached far and wide to Sunni Muslims around the globe, including in Syria. Therefore, there had been a cultural inclination by the Sunni Syrians to go back to the "ancient ways". In times of economic destitution, the desperate and angry masses will entertain radical ideas, including "returning Syria to the Ottoman Empire" or turning it into an Islamic Caliphate.

Assad just cannot turn Syria's economy around. Russia and Iran never had the financial means to sustain their imperial outpost in Syria. They can provide military assistance, but they are unable to provide the economic assistance to get it back on track. Without an economy, Syria is vulnerable to corruption, treason, and low morale. This is an unsustainable situation, but was hidden from the anti-imperialism fanboys by Russian and Iranian propaganda, and by drinking too much of that anti-imperialism Kool-Aid. Syria had always been on life-support, and it crumbled when the Russians and Iranians were distracted with much more pressing matters. Its patrons had to prioritize themselves first.

My prediction is that after Assad falls, Syria will still not see peace. Erdogan's Ottoman project in Syria will begin, and he too will have no peace.

 

[Overbom]

My prediction is that after Assad falls, Syria will still not see peace. Erdogan's Ottoman project in Syria will begin, and he too will have no peace

After Assad falls, the US will be in an even better position to influence Turkey. With Syria a collapsed and chaotic state, the Kurds could be funded and armed quite easily by the US whenever Erdogan tries to remove his US leash.

Erdogan thinks he is some kind of genius but in reality he is just a jumbing clown in the eyes of the superpowers of the world, US and China.

Frog in a well