Indeed, the calculus or Game Theory i’d observe as follows:You are worried that Xi will be taken advantage of in event of negotiation, but worry not - this ain't his first rodeo.
This isn't going to look exactly like Treaty of Nanking but the idea is similar - US is currently fighting on three fronts and none of them are going that well:
Any one of them would be a headache for Washington, all three at once and they'll have to fold on at least one if not more. That's why Xi is going and talking to Biden, and that's why they're treating Xi's visit like he's the god emperor:
- Russo-Ukraine War, where AFU's big Spring Offensive have failed and Russians are slowly advancing and potentially arranging a Bakhmut 2.0 at Avdiivka
- Israeli-Palestinian Conflict which have derailed their Saudi-Israeli normalization process and causing the west's image to take a further nose dive in the Global South due to supporting Israeli ethnic cleansing, and the offensive into Gaza is not going as well as planned
- trade war and tech war with China, where Huawei gave them a kick up the ass with the Mate 60 breakthrough
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I was quite taken aback when I read this, but on second thought that's a very normal human reaction isn't it? I too clean up my house before visitors come, particularly if it's people I'm trying to impress, we're just not used to this coming from Americans. Xi knows what's up, if all the attempts by Biden to get a meeting with him is not clear enough you just need to look at the conga line of US politicians visiting Beijing prior to this meeting. It's clear they want some help and I trust Xi to drive a hard bargin.
I'm also not worried about this, because we've already seen this happen once before under Biden. Recall the meeting between Xi and Biden at Bali where they had some kind of closed door agreement. To this day MFA would say US needs to mean what they say and carry out the Bali Agreement and you won't even hear that name from US government.
The result? When Xi goes now the price that was on offer at Bali will no longer be available. Whatever help US wants from China, the price is higher. And if this time around they want to renege again then fine, by next meeting (with either Biden or whoever replaces him) the price that US will have to pay will be higher still.
US:
Current trajectory with those aforementioned scenarios not to mention recession and general inflation is a direct line to disaster.
China:
Current trajectory with current world inflationary environment and trade wars are not ideal and may hamper growth and delay chinas rise but will fail to prevent china’s development.
Needless to say, both states need each other but for the US, it is existential given the lack of buyers of US debt and the collapse of their influence in the Middle East And a population dissatisfied with the Brezhnev leadership and cost of living.
China, well it could come to some sort of modus vivendi with the U.S. but it doesn’t need to, it would be nice to have, a few extra years of peace and development of Chinese industry and if it’s achievable then yes go do it. More years of development means less lives lost if and when the US decides on a east Asia gambit.