What kind of a crazy article is this from UPI???

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
we havent prove the reliability/operation status of asbm. even if china has its ASBM operational, do they want to use it if US cvbg is in south china sea, international water.

as for foreign debt, war often eliminate foreign debt. iraq-kuwait war for example. each Treasury Bond has ID value during auction, just like ID on $100 bill. this eliminate scam, but also allow US to know where did they sold those Treasury Bond to(thats how US know china hold $1.3T T-bills). if US selective default during a war, all the Treasury Bond in chinese hand is worthless. no one will buy those from china. and since US has all the Treasury Bond ID, it has fairly good idea which bill belong to whom. china will have diffculty to get rid of those.
its like if you own certain banks mortagage and decide not to pay it, the bank can't sell that debts to other bank, because no other banks will buy it, so the bank has to take a lost.

This the most ridiculous post that I ever see.The bond issuance is always depend on trust.

Basically it is a worthless IOU note unless it is back by the credit rating of the borrower

If ever US default on their payment to China. Nobody else in the world is going to buy US Treasury bond.

Now how are they going to cover the deficit. That mean no social security payment. No payment to federal employee. No money for the military. In other word the whole economy is grinding to halt.

Have you seen Greek street lately It is child play compare to what would happened if the day come that US stop payment on their debt

Walking out on the mortgage is not an applicable comparison . It only cover individual.

Even in this case there is penalty to pay like shot up credit rating, You have problem renting an apartment or even buy car.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
we havent prove the reliability/operation status of asbm. even if china has its ASBM operational, do they want to use it if US cvbg is in south china sea, international water.

You are in for a big surprise if you think being in international waters will protect you from enemy fire during a shooting war.

as for foreign debt, war often eliminate foreign debt. iraq-kuwait war for example. each Treasury Bond has ID value during auction, just like ID on $100 bill. this eliminate scam, but also allow US to know where did they sold those Treasury Bond to(thats how US know china hold $1.3T T-bills). if US selective default during a war, all the Treasury Bond in chinese hand is worthless. no one will buy those from china. and since US has all the Treasury Bond ID, it has fairly good idea which bill belong to whom. china will have diffculty to get rid of those.
its like if you own certain banks mortgage and decide not to pay it, the bank can't sell that debts to other bank, because no other banks will buy it, so the bank has to take a lost.

You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Firstly, treasury bonds are traded freely by everyone. The US might know which bonds they issued to who, but they will have no idea who holds which bonds a few years down the line.

Secondly, your mortgage example completely ignores the impact such a move will have on the US. To follow your example, if China is a bank and the US is the mortgage holder, even if the US was able to somehow identify the bonds China holds and cancel them, do you think any other banks is ever going to trust you enough to lend you a mortgage?

Everyone else's treasury bonds might not be cancelled, but they are all going to be worried what would happen if the US suddenly decides to cancel their bonds. So they are all going to sell, and the value of ALL US treasure bonds will become effectively worthless.

Go read an economics book if you want to begin to appreciate how badly that will hit America's economy.

Will such a move hurt China? Of course it will, but it will hurt the US a hell of a lot more.
 

solarz

Brigadier
You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Firstly, treasury bonds are traded freely by everyone. The US might know which bonds they issued to who, but they will have no idea who holds which bonds a few years down the line.

Secondly, your mortgage example completely ignores the impact such a move will have on the US. To follow your example, if China is a bank and the US is the mortgage holder, even if the US was able to somehow identify the bonds China holds and cancel them, do you think any other banks is ever going to trust you enough to lend you a mortgage?

Everyone else's treasury bonds might not be cancelled, but they are all going to be worried what would happen if the US suddenly decides to cancel their bonds. So they are all going to sell, and the value of ALL US treasure bonds will become effectively worthless.

Go read an economics book if you want to begin to appreciate how badly that will hit America's economy.

Will such a move hurt China? Of course it will, but it will hurt the US a hell of a lot more.

Well said, and really, the first paragraph here makes all the rest moot. The US doesn't sell bonds to China, it puts the bonds on the market and Chinese financial institutions and investors buy them. These bonds then change hands as trade flows and the economy moves forward. In short, there is no way for the US to know which bonds belong to Chinese investors.

In short, if the US defaults on its debt, China would be out 1 trillion$ of foreign reserves. The US, on the other hand, would be out of an economy.
 

no_name

Colonel
I see south china sea and the Korean problem both as related to the Taiwan problem. As long as Taiwan problem is not solved, you'll likely not get anywhere with the other two. I actually thinks China holds the leash on these other two problems.

The fact that Taiwan is not unified only makes S/China sea all the more important to China.
 

Red___Sword

Junior Member
@ plawolf,

You are in for a big surprise if you think being in international waters will protect you from enemy fire during a shooting war.

I don't think s002wjh is going to appreciate too much as in this point of time, and stance ("you wanna a piece of me?" stance), so I would put it in this way:

As s002wjh indicated, people regards it as "international water" though China have some different saying about this, but let's play the "international" game. USA can send a CVBG there to stroll, as Chinese cyber community calls it "打酱油", and that's the only thing the CVBG is going to do, as long as the ones in white house are not committed to a direct WAR ON CHINA.

So PLAN stroll around the CVBG too, it's "international water", I am here to buy some sauce, nothing happens! - When Chinese fighter jets drop bombs on some unnamed islets, you DON'T shoot it down; when Chinese frigates chase away some other's gunboats, you DON'T sunk it; when PLAN marines exchanges gun fires with some occupational forces on some below-sea-level reefs, you DON'T jumps in... Everyone just send in a "stroll party" who representing their taxpayers to "take a walk" at this tiny spot on earth. I am sure Chinese taxpayers are willing to, not sure about Americans'.

Not to mention a "stroll" is someone's free will, one can always "stroll" at a time when he is most convenient and not necessary the other guys are convenient too.

Look, vesicles is also speaks to the interests of America, sugguesting ways to "f-word" China to a greater effect to boarden American Interests, yet out of my free will, I give him a thumbs-up. Cause Mr. vesicles made logical points instead of youtube-member type of patriotism propagates. - And that's exactly why China do not react like a child "I punch you everytime you punch me", but to decisively boost its area-denial capability as well as work-under-pressure resource-grabbing capability.

Nothing abnormally would happen when the grand stratege is set.
 

Lion

Senior Member
USN send carrier and watch PLAN bomber bomb the spratly island. That will be interesting.

Sending a carrier to do nothing and sending a carrier to carry out operation is a huge different...

SK will not involved, cos probably NK will attack SK immediately if CHina is attacked.
Japan will watch too.

Anybody remember 1988 spratly island clash? PLAN captured 8 islanlet from Vietnam and nobody says a word. Now 2011, PLAN is even stronger. I shall see who dares to intervene.
 

delft

Brigadier
The US also talks about "defending the freedom of navigation". Even if China would have garrisons on every single island in SCS it would itself defend the freedom of navigation simply because it is in the interest of every seafaring nation to do so and China is a larger seafaring nation than the US.

if its any other non crucial location and doesn't involve so many countries. US probably won't get involve, but because south china sea is resource rich region that happen to be a critical sea lanes. US will be involved. When is the last time US DIDNT involve in a conflict at a strategy/oil/resourc rich location.

That's just greed and a massive military superiority. This massive military superiority is still there nearly everywhere on the world but not near China.
 
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bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
USN send carrier and watch PLAN bomber bomb the spratly island. That will be interesting.

Sending a carrier to do nothing and sending a carrier to carry out operation is a huge different...

Not true. USN carrier operations are the same in peace or war.

Never been on a USN carrier have you? I have..five of them..Kennedy, Midway, Hancock, America & Nimitz.
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
You are in for a big surprise if you think being in international waters will protect you from enemy fire during a shooting war.



You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Firstly, treasury bonds are traded freely by everyone. The US might know which bonds they issued to who, but they will have no idea who holds which bonds a few years down the line.

Secondly, your mortgage example completely ignores the impact such a move will have on the US. To follow your example, if China is a bank and the US is the mortgage holder, even if the US was able to somehow identify the bonds China holds and cancel them, do you think any other banks is ever going to trust you enough to lend you a mortgage?

Everyone else's treasury bonds might not be cancelled, but they are all going to be worried what would happen if the US suddenly decides to cancel their bonds. So they are all going to sell, and the value of ALL US treasure bonds will become effectively worthless.

Go read an economics book if you want to begin to appreciate how badly that will hit America's economy.

Will such a move hurt China? Of course it will, but it will hurt the US a hell of a lot more.

all the bond can be trade via stock or other method. if its legal transaction with huge amount of t-bond(t-bond trading between nations are often large amount). IT HAS RECORDS, that records indicate how much t-bond sold to japan/europe from china for example. its same when you do a transaction through bank, there is always a record. In the event of a war. US can effectively default those debt, which make china liquify/transaction those debt to other countries impossible. transaction between small amount of t-bond through private party is not recorded as detail as those between nations due to too many transaction daily. ask some foreign finance expert on this if you don't belief it, because i ask a friend of mine who happen work in this area. anytime there is huge amount of t-bond trading between nations, its recorded. read up on ISIN,CUSIP, NSIN numbers. small amount hold by private party are difficult to track, but in the event of a war. china need to trade large amount of t-bill, bonds etc $1.3 trillion. so if china want to get rid of those 1.3 trillion, first china has to trade those bond for gold, resource, or other europe/asia bond WITH other countries. its gonna be hard to sold all those t-bill simultaneously when most country won't even buy it. its like going to a store pay your purchase with cash, but the store deny your purchase, because they don't want to make a transaction WITH YOU, not because your cash is fake. China can't sell those $1.3 trillion in an instant, some small private party might want take risk and buy some t-bill from china(but those are small amount millions, certainly not trillions) but nations such as japan/europe etc won't buy it. because large amount of t-bill transaction between nation are recorded, and its easy for US to found out. even if its not, investors/those nations won't take the chance. furthermore once nations trade t-bill, its not that often they sold it right away(private party are opposite), so when china purchase t-bond from US, most t-bill will stay in china for some time. in the end is about how china can get rid of $1.3T bonds instanly via trade with other nations. No private party can afford that much t-bonds. So which nations is dumb enough to buy US t-bill from chinese when US specifically said due to war, the debt is default. what kind of investor would risk it by buying US t-bond from china. we are talking about trillion t-bonds, not small transaction daily between private party. and as i SAID BEFORE because of WAR US can effictively default their debt to china. do you think US will still pay their debt to china WHEN there is a conflict going on between them, when hundreds US sailor is killed?? its like while i'm punching you, not only you are not getting mad, but paying me with cash. how well do you think US public will feel when US stilll paying chinese debt during a WAR due to south china sea. US still gonna pay japan/europe back because they are ally, and because US is not at war with them.

as for attack US ship in international water, sure china can do it. but do they willing to do it if US CVBG is in that area. South china sea is not a Chinese core interest. if china don't have to worry about US, taiwan and south china sea is probably already under chinese control. if US decide to put CVBG directly between china task force and phillipine/other countries or particular area chinese are interest in. what would china do? its same situation as taiwan 1996, US basically just put their CVBG there, and wait for chinese response. so would china attack US or back down or negotiate? because its very likely US will get invovle in south china sea conflict, and thats the situation china might face one day.
 
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