What kind of a crazy article is this from UPI???

By the same token, the costs could equally become too high for China.

s002wjh :

if south china sea become part of china, this mean ALL ships from any nation travel there has to be approved by china. be military ships passing through, research ship, fishing boat etc etc.

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Rubbish. The connections between the Indian ocean and the Pacific nearly all pass through the territorial waters of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and/or Australia. Naval ships as well as merchant ships have the right of free passage through those territorial waters.

Lezt said:

Also, you are thinking in a very American centric way, did the Americans force the soviet union down? Did the American navy know that the foxtrots they were practice torpedoing and hunting each carried a nuclear torpedo and had orders to fire them? The Cuban missile crisis is not a case where one triumphed over the other, but it is a case where very cool heads prevailed. If you read the memoirs you will find that we were seconds from a nuclear war.

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The Cuban Missile Crisis, and the subsequent revelation of how close the world came to nuclear war, is a profound lesson for the major powers of the world. I'd like to think that we've learned from that crisis, hence why I don't think the US and China will ever come to open confrontation.

s002wjh said:

I wrote my response base on the fact some member don't believe US will be involve in a navy conflict between china and ASEAN nations(this does not mean a direct military involvement, of course it depend on the size of conflict). So its not about how unlikely a conflict will start, but IF it did happen, what would US do about it. And as i said before depend on the scale of conflict US might involve directly or indirectly. US might give intel, supply, support to phillipines, or it might send CVBG to phillipine coast to send a clear message to china. my assumption is base on the scale of conflict and tension in that area. if a large navy conflict over there involve asean and china, US could send CVBG over there to give china a pause, on the other hand if its minior skirmish US could have another navy drill with phillipines.

if you read my previous post, its never about the likely hood of a conflict. its about US response if there is a conflict. this was started @post11

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I think I understand your point completely. You are the one who's not understanding my point. I don't care who started the discussion, but am arguing with you about your point that the US is willing to get involved in a direct military confrontation. I am the one who suggested possible indirect involvement. And now you claim it was your point to begin with...

We are arguing the same thing, i.e. how the US would get involved in a potential conflict in the SCS. Your argument is more on the side of fantasy/PC game because, in your imagination, everyone is over angry and ferocious. China gets angry and starts attacking ASEAN nations and the US get angry and sends CVBG's to the SCS and both China and the US get angry and start attacking each other. The premise of your argument is that the SCS is uber important that everyone will fight to the death for it and that China would be willing to start an open war. However, the point I am trying to make is that world leaders are a lot more sane than how you would imagine. Any potential conflict will not get to the point of an open war. China will not attack ANSEAN nations and as a result, the US will not get militarily involved. Why? The SCS is not that important. It is NOT a top priority for China and it is certainly not a priority of the US.

As I mentioned in my first post in this thread, IF (a huge IF) China starts a war in the SCS, it is much more likely for the US to get involved indirectly, instead of directly sending troops/CVBG into the area (post #17). Sending a CVBG into an active combat zone is a very dangerous thing to do if you don't want to get involved.

s002wjh said:

taiwan 96, US did involved, as result china back down. same could happen, US might just send a CVBG near phillipine or other locations during a conflict/high tension, and see chinese response. please tell me what part of this is fantasy.

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What happened in 1996 cannot be used to predict what will happen in the SCS in case of an open war. Why? the incident in 1996 was never a direct military operation. China did not attack Taiwan. It was an exercise. China was simply playing by firing missiles over the island of Taiwan as a way of intimidation. And the US sent in the CVBG, also as an intimidation, to warn China and to tell them to stop playing. That was it. A game. No one was super serious about it.

IF there is an open war in the SCS, no one will be playing. Washington knows fully well that China will be prepared mentally and logistically to confront with the US if it decides to start a war. So a simple intimidation will NOT work because once China decides to start a war, it has stepped over the point of no return. Will Washington still get involved if they know fully well that China is prepared to fight and if they know that China must have some kind of plan to fave the US on the battlefield and is confident of winning the confrontation? Of course, whether China could win or not is unknown. but the fact that China is prepared means that the US will suffer tremendously. That makes the decision-making a little harder than simply sending the CVBG out for an intimidation.

This is completely different situation from 1996! So the response will be different. It's like at a party, you see someone playing with a knife. You might step in and tell him to put down the knife. If you see someone with eyes bloodshot holding a loaded gun and yelling crazy stuff, would you still step out and tell him to put down the gun? The most like action will be to run as hell. even if yo want to get involved, you will think very carefully about whether it's worth it to confront the guy.

The South China Sea will not elicit U.S intervention via military force or provoke WW3.

The South China Sea is China's exclusive sphere of influence, and nobody is going to challenge it. Nobody.

Phead128 said:

The South China Sea will not elicit U.S intervention via military force or provoke WW3.

The South China Sea is China's exclusive sphere of influence, and nobody is going to challenge it. Nobody.

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The USN has been operating in the south China Sea, continuously, since the end of WWII.

It is no point aggravating anyone on the matter of the South China Sea. I am sure China's Leadership is pragmatic enough to find an amiable solution to the problem. Rhetorics, especially threatening ones would not work. Let's give diplomacy a chance and avoid working ourselves into a frenzy.