What kind of a crazy article is this from UPI???

solarz

solarz

Brigadier
s002wjh said:
if there is a navy conflict in which china is winning and declare the entire south china sea as chinese territory, then US has issues with that. that area is crucial for shipping lanes. no country will want to see china control 1/3 worlds shipping routes.
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That's ridiculous. It's not as if China is going to close the SCS to shipping once they kick out Vietnam and Philippine.

It shows that you don't even realize what the issue is about. The issue is about exploitation rights for the resources in SCS. The US does not exploit SCS resources, nor is there any expectation (except among the most paranoid) that China will ever close off a vital shipping lane.


jantxv said:
China does not need the South China Sea's resources, free trade supplies more than enough at much cheaper costs. China does not need the South China Sea as a security buffer, since China is a nuclear weapons power and this is 2011, not 1911.

Nations would be wise not to fall for bait that would embroil them into costly proxy wars with the world's great powers. A protracted proxy war in the South China Sea is guaranteed to produce no winners, only stalemate and a return to the status quo.
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I agree with the first part of your assessment. Likely the reason China does not press so much on the SCS issue is the fact that China does not need those resources yet. However, that can possibly change in the future.

On the second part, I disagree. A war in SCS would be risky, but it will not result in stalemate. This is a naval conflict we're talking about, not a land war.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
solarz said:
That's ridiculous. It's not as if China is going to close the SCS to shipping once they kick out Vietnam and Philippine.

It shows that you don't even realize what the issue is about. The issue is about exploitation rights for the resources in SCS. The US does not exploit SCS resources, nor is there any expectation (except among the most paranoid) that China will ever close off a vital shipping lane.
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its not only about resource right, china claim the entire south china sea as their own territory, is this true or not? if it is, it will meant that foreign ship go through that area has to have permission from china, be commerical, research, or military ships. it would meant US navy can no longer go through that area like its in international water, same for other types of foreign ships. furthermore, said if china has some dispute with japan, Skorea or taiwan, china can use south china sea as an advantage by deny other country access through that area for certain type of ships. its a strategic location that can be use for chinese benefit in the future against other countries if it become part of chinese territory. it shows you didn't even think about what kind of disadvantage other countries have to deal with after south china sea become chinese territory
 
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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
s002wjh said:
its not only about resource right, china claim the entire south china sea as their own territory, is this true or not? if it is, it will meant that foreign ship go through that area has to have permission from china, be commerical, research, or military ships. it would meant US navy can no longer go through that area like its in international water, same for other types of foreign ships. furthermore, said if china has some dispute with japan, Skorea or taiwan, china can use south china sea as an advantage by deny other country access through that area for certain type of ships. its a strategic location that can be use for chinese benefit in the future against other countries if it become part of chinese territory. it shows you didn't even think about what kind of disadvantage other countries have to deal with after south china sea become chinese territory
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You should
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. Look at the Vietnam and Philippine claims. Then come back and tell us that China's claims affect international waters.
 
vesicles

vesicles

Colonel
s002wjh said:
its not only about resource right, china claim the entire south china sea as their own territory, is this true or not? if it is, it will meant that foreign ship go through that area has to have permission from china, be commerical, research, or military ships. it would meant US navy can no longer go through that area like its in international water, same for other types of foreign ships. furthermore, said if china has some dispute with japan, Skorea or taiwan, china can use south china sea as an advantage by deny other country access through that area for certain type of ships. its a strategic location that can be use for chinese benefit in the future against other countries if it become part of chinese territory. it shows you didn't even think about what kind of disadvantage other countries have to deal with after south china sea become chinese territory
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It seems to me that you are taking more of a fanatic position on the potential Sino-US conflict. Yes, if everyone on both sides of the Pacific coast have been bitten by Zombies and turns into mindless monsters, what you say will more likely to happen.

OK, jokes aside, I truly believe that you are looking for reasons to pick a fight between the two nations. Realistically, nations are led by sane and intelligent people who fully understand the consequences of war and will do everything they can to avoid it. This is not some regional conflicts that have occurred in the past. Any direct confrontation between China and the US could escalate to something else.

Examples? During the Korean War, Washington tried everything they could to limit the confrontation to only Korea. Even though the military wanted to expand the war to Chinese territory and even use the nuke, which makes perfect military sense, but Washington firmly refused to do any of that. The Cold War. I've said it numerous time about how the US and the Soviets avoided direct confrontations. China and the Soviets also had a "border war" in the 60's. Both sides also tried their best NOT to escalate the conflict. Both sides even ordered their soldiers to carry wooden sticks instead of actual weapons on patrols so that no one would be killed and the conflict would not be escalated. This compares with how China attacked India in the same time period and later Vietnam; how the US started an all-out war with Vietnam in the 60's and 70's; how the Soviets fought open wars in Afghanistan, etc etc etc. You clearly see that these large nations behave completely differently when facing different opponents. So an open Sino-US conflict, to me, is highly unlikely.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
vesicles said:
It seems to me that you are taking more of a fanatic position on the potential Sino-US conflict. Yes, if everyone on both sides of the Pacific coast have been bitten by Zombies and turns into mindless monsters, what you say will more likely to happen.

OK, jokes aside, I truly believe that you are looking for reasons to pick a fight between the two nations. Realistically, nations are led by sane and intelligent people who fully understand the consequences of war and will do everything they can to avoid it. This is not some regional conflicts that have occurred in the past. Any direct confrontation between China and the US could escalate to something else.

Examples? During the Korean War, Washington tried everything they could to limit the confrontation to only Korea. Even though the military wanted to expand the war to Chinese territory and even use the nuke, which makes perfect military sense, but Washington firmly refused to do any of that. The Cold War. I've said it numerous time about how the US and the Soviets avoided direct confrontations. China and the Soviets also had a "border war" in the 60's. Both sides also tried their best NOT to escalate the conflict. Both sides even ordered their soldiers to carry wooden sticks instead of actual weapons on patrols so that no one would be killed and the conflict would not be escalated. This compares with how China attacked India in the same time period and later Vietnam; how the US started an all-out war with Vietnam in the 60's and 70's; how the Soviets fought open wars in Afghanistan, etc etc etc. You clearly see that these large nations behave completely differently when facing different opponents. So an open Sino-US conflict, to me, is highly unlikely.
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why the heck i want to pick a fight, all these talk about how china should claim the entire south china sea as its own territory, if it become reality do you think other countries will just stand by and let china claim the territory. the whole arguement start when chinese fans start claim south china sea is part of china, in fact china doesn't has rigth to claim that part of ocean anymore than vietnam/phillipine. if everything resovle peceafully, good, if major navy conflict involve between china and ASEAN then some country such as US might not stand by idly.

Now find any post that I said "i'm looking for a fight between US and china"" US will definitely try to find a peceaful solution, but the original discussion started when someone claim US won't get involved during a south china sea conflict. Now, if china claim the entire south china sea by defeating ASEAN navy. can you say US won't be involved in anyway, this was the original discussion that started my post.

there are certainlly many way to get involved as I said before in my previous post. US can indirectly support phillipine/ASEAN or directly depend on the situation.

as for your example regarding conflict between large nations. think taiwan 96, US did it before, US might do it again at south china sea, if things become out of control.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
solarz said:
You should
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Look at the Vietnam and Philippine claims. Then come back and tell us that China's claims affect international waters.
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they don't have claim right anymore than china does. nations claim those area should either workout a solution or keep it as international water.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
s002wjh said:
they don't have claim right anymore than china does. nations claim those area should either workout a solution or keep it as international water.
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What? That makes no sense whatsoever. Sorry, but "international water" is not a "default solution" to conflict. By your logic, China could claim the entire Western coast of the United States as its own, and because the US won't agree and they can't work out a solution, the West Coast should become international water.
 
vesicles

vesicles

Colonel
s002wjh said:
why the heck i want to pick a fight, all these talk about how china should claim the entire south china sea as its own territory, if it become reality do you think other countries will just stand by and let china claim the territory. the whole arguement start when chinese fans start claim south china sea is part of china, in fact china doesn't has rigth to claim that part of ocean anymore than vietnam/phillipine. if everything resovle peceafully, good, if major navy conflict involve between china and ASEAN then some country such as US might not stand by idly.

Now find any post that I said "i'm looking for a fight between US and china"" US will definitely try to find a peceaful solution, but the original discussion started when someone claim US won't get involved during a south china sea conflict. Now, if china claim the entire south china sea by defeating ASEAN navy. can you say US won't be involved in anyway, this was the original discussion that started my post.

there are certainlly many way to get involved as I said before in my previous post. US can indirectly support phillipine/ASEAN or directly depend on the situation.

as for your example regarding conflict between large nations. think taiwan 96, US did it before, US might do it again at south china sea, if things become out of control.
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You haven't said it out loud, but keep listing all the worst-case scenarios that would lead to a direct conflict. For instance, you said above "Now, if china claim the entire south china sea by defeating ASEAN navy. can you say US won't be involved in anyway". Now, when did China claim the entire South China Sea as its own? When did China declare that it would use military to solve the SCS issue? China flat out says it would use it military to solve the Taiwan problem, but never even once implies anything even remotely close to a military operation in the SCS. To keep your line of thought, it is also possible that China will use its nukes to destroy the entire world, but is that going to happen?

You seem to insist that China will use its military in the SCS and the US would intervene because of the supposedly "enormous" strategic interest in the SCS. Now, the SCS may be good for China to have, but would China risk open war with the US to start attacking ASEAN nations? the answer is obviously NO! Would China risk damaging its economic development by angering its neighbors and everyone else with an open war? the answer is NO! To China, there are so many more important issues, such as domestic stability, economic development, etc. The SCS is not even close to make the China's list of top priorities. One of China's TOP foreign policy is "PEACEFUL RISING". Would China deviates from one of its key foreign policies for the SCS? NO!

You are correct that the US does not want China to dominate the SCS, but is the US interest in the area big enough to warrant an open war? the answer is obviously no. However, you keep insisting that the US will go to open war if any its interest is in danger and that any interest is worth an open war. This obviously is wrong. On the other hand, China will not push the US to the corner by using military in the SCS. So an open war is highly unlikely.
 
Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
I hope the South China Sea doesn't turn into a powder keg for a major conflict much like how World War I was started with the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria follow by the Austro-Hungary invasion of Serbia. It is not wise for these "smaller" ASEAN states and politicians to be playing the poor victimize card game between the worlds two largest economy when it's obviously they're doing business with both.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
vesicles said:
You haven't said it out loud, but keep listing all the worst-case scenarios that would lead to a direct conflict. For instance, you said above "Now, if china claim the entire south china sea by defeating ASEAN navy. can you say US won't be involved in anyway". Now, when did China claim the entire South China Sea as its own? When did China declare that it would use military to solve the SCS issue? China flat out says it would use it military to solve the Taiwan problem, but never even once implies anything even remotely close to a military operation in the SCS. To keep your line of thought, it is also possible that China will use its nukes to destroy the entire world, but is that going to happen?

You seem to insist that China will use its military in the SCS and the US would intervene because of the supposedly "enormous" strategic interest in the SCS. Now, the SCS may be good for China to have, but would China risk open war with the US to start attacking ASEAN nations? the answer is obviously NO! Would China risk damaging its economic development by angering its neighbors and everyone else with an open war? the answer is NO! To China, there are so many more important issues, such as domestic stability, economic development, etc. The SCS is not even close to make the China's list of top priorities. One of China's TOP foreign policy is "PEACEFUL RISING". Would China deviates from one of its key foreign policies for the SCS? NO!

You are correct that the US does not want China to dominate the SCS, but is the US interest in the area big enough to warrant an open war? the answer is obviously no. However, you keep insisting that the US will go to open war if any its interest is in danger and that any interest is worth an open war. This obviously is wrong. On the other hand, China will not push the US to the corner by using military in the SCS. So an open war is highly unlikely.
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as i said before my reaction was base on "solarz" and others who indicate US wont get involve during a conflict in south china sea. On top was that, is it true or not China claim the entire south china sea? if this is true how does china plan to peacefully resolve this and still has the entire south china sea, I'm glad to hear your explanation on this subject. And as I said before US can support indirectly or directly, they can either give intel,supply etc or they can send CVBG to that area to persuade china backdown if there is a conflict.

read post #11 & #12 see who start the discussion about war in south china sea. I didn't insisit anything, i simply react to some users comments.

I quote
If it comes to war in the South China Sea, it will be restricted to that area alone.
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so who start this discussion about the war in that area. I simple say it will unlikely restrict to that area due to strategic location of south china sea.

so I said it again, i didn't say war in that area is likely or not, I simply react to post #11 claim if there is a war in that region it won't involve other nations. so can you distinguish difference now!! My post didn't start with there will be a war etc etc, but a reply to forum member comments before. find any post that I start the discussion about how there will be a war etc, all my post are simply replies to other comments
 
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