What kind of a crazy article is this from UPI???

solarz

solarz

Brigadier
kwaigonegin said:
Solarz NOT to really want to get into hypotheticals with you since neither of us have crystal balls BUT I can almost guarantee you IF China invades the Philipines and Vietnam (based on the stupid article) USN WILL get involve! If you disagree that's fine but that's just my professional opinion
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Philipines? Maybe, since the US has a defense treaty with them. Vietnam? No way.

However, there is no mention of China actually invading either countries. If it comes to war in the South China Sea, it will be restricted to that area alone.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
solarz said:
Philipines? Maybe, since the US has a defense treaty with them. Vietnam? No way.

However, there is no mention of China actually invading either countries. If it comes to war in the South China Sea, it will be restricted to that area alone.
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and you think no other countries will get involve in someway? japan, SK, S.East asia, US.

if philipine ask for help. US very likely will send carrier to that region, just like taiwan 1996. its in US interest not allow china to control the entire south china sea. in that case US might use vietnam to counter china. just like when US use china in the 60's to counter USSR.
 
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I

i.e.

Senior Member
In 79 and 88 the conflict wasn't an orchastrated action directed from top civilian leadership.

the other guy fired first shot and grunts on the ground reacted. reports went up the chain of command while resources were mobilized up and down to "help our own guys out" at the front. by the time top level realized what was going on they already won the fire fight.

this time around I bet some of the guys on the ground are itching to do it again.

the primarily challenge for PLAN/PLAAF in any conflict involving operations in spratly is air coverage.
the nearest chinese airfield is in Paracel islands and it is about 800+ km, its a small airfield can not support high tempo operations,
Nearest chinese airfield that has the logistics potential is in Sanya. Linshui to Spratley is about 1100 km. not trivial to mount a 24/7combat air patrol in that distance.
Now if PLAN had a carrier battle group... even a crappy one...

@red_sword.

your argument on one hand saying US is stupid to get involved because of economic ties, but on the other hand argue that this whole thing was stirred up by US to get a military confrontation. kinda conflicting arguments there.

...
while we are at it,

Carthago delenda est. remember that Line?
 
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bladerunner

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
s002wjh;163684 its in US interest not allow china to control the entire south china sea. [/QUOTE said:
ROFL The entire world let alone the countries in the region would'nt like to see China/US actually control the South China Seas
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i.e.

Senior Member
about the article.

Yeah there is alot of p***ed off people in China on the SCS business.

some of the happened to decide to write an ariticle in Global times. So what's the big deal?
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
s002wjh said:
and you think no other countries will get involve in someway? japan, SK, S.East asia, US.

if philipine ask for help. US very likely will send carrier to that region, just like taiwan 1996. its in US interest not allow china to control the entire south china sea. in that case US might use vietnam to counter china. just like when US use china in the 60's to counter USSR.
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Did you see the US actively fighting the USSR in the 60's? No? What makes you think the US will do so now?

If the US sends a carrier to South China Sea, this will send a message that the US supports the Philipine claim to that territory. There will be huge repercussions to that, as the US will have committed itself to a diplomatic stance from which it gains very little benefit while dramatically escalating the conflict. While it might be in the US's interest not to allow China to control the entire South China Sea, do you think it's high-priority enough for the US to risk a military confrontation with China?

Honestly though, I don't see it ever coming to blows. If China wanted to escalate this conflict, it has powerful economic leverages that can bring both Vietnam and Philippines to their knees long before it needs to resort to its military.

Remember the Diaoyu Island incident? The Japanese released the fishing captain shortly after rumors of a Chinese ban on rare earth exports to Japan.

In 79 and 88 the conflict wasn't an orchastrated action directed from top civilian leadership.

the other guy fired first shot and grunts on the ground reacted. reports went up the chain of command while resources were mobilized up and down to "help our own guys out" at the front. by the time top level realized what was going on they already won the fire fight.
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'88 was a border skirmish, the the '79 invasion was ordered by Deng himself.
 
vesicles

vesicles

Colonel
s002wjh said:
and you think no other countries will get involve in someway? japan, SK, S.East asia, US.

if philipine ask for help. US very likely will send carrier to that region, just like taiwan 1996. its in US interest not allow china to control the entire south china sea. in that case US might use vietnam to counter china. just like when US use china in the 60's to counter USSR.
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In my opinion, IF China gets into a conflict in the South China Sea, the US would/should be more then happy to stand by and watch, instead of getting involved. Washington knows fully well that China benefited mightily from all the conflicts the US is involved. Not directly, but indirectly by wasting so much time and resources in all those conflicts while allowing China to grow unchecked. The US would be more than happy to do the same and watch China wasting some of their money and resource on some insignificant conflicts.

The US might sell a few weapons to those nations fighting China and make a few bucks, but that's pretty much it.

In the Cold War, the US and the Soviets never faced each other directly even though the tension was huge and confrontation was very open. Avoiding direct confrontation was to prevent escalation of conflicts to WWIII. The same strategy would also apply between the US and China, with even bigger constraint because any confrontation between the US and China is not open. On the surface, the US and China are not enemies. So it has to take much much much much much more than a few islands in the South China Sea to get the US and China into a fight.

As to SK and Japan, they would not get involved if the US stays out of it. Historically, there has never been any meaningful relationship by SK/Japan and South China Sea nations. If any, there is tension. So why would SK/Japan get into a fight and risk their national interests for a few islands and those nations they hardly care about? Japan may want to have some of those islands for their own, but they are not worth getting into a war with China. They would be much happier standing by and watch the show.
 
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cn_habs

cn_habs

Junior Member
kwaigonegin said:
Solarz NOT to really want to get into hypotheticals with you since neither of us have crystal balls BUT I can almost guarantee you IF China invades the Philipines and Vietnam (based on the stupid article) USN WILL get involve! If you disagree that's fine but that's just my professional opinion
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Get a reality check and ask yourself if American politicians would risk a public outrage to risk American lives for Vietnam where thousands of American lives were killed. The South Koreans aren't stupid enough to get involved unless their cargo vessels are denied passage.

Unless there's a large scale permanent Chinese invasion which is basically impossible, those things only exist in your craziest dreams. ;)
 
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advill

Junior Member
I agree with i.e. "that there are a lot of p***ed people in China". There are also serious concerns in Vietnam, Philippines & the other neighbouring countries regarding this SCS imbroglio. However, I have my doubts that the article, even if proven authentic, reflects the official thinking of the PRC Government at this point in time. Yes, there are deep frustrations and anger, but "war" is an unwise & disastrous option to take. Imagine the retaliations by parties concerned, sea lanes/trade disrupted etc. etc. Continuation of talks, diplomacy and a binding treaty for cooperation & mutual benefits would solve the problem once and for all.
 
kwaigonegin

kwaigonegin

Colonel
cn_habs said:
Get a reality check and ask yourself if American politicians would risk a public outrage to risk American lives for Vietnam where thousands of American lives were killed. The South Koreans aren't stupid enough to get involved unless their cargo vessels are denied passage.

Unless there's a large scale permanent Chinese invasion which is basically impossible, those things only exist in your craziest dreams. ;)
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hey, that's not me.. I was only basing my judgement in regards to the the article which stated the invasion of Philipines and Vietnam! Pls don't quote me out of context.
 
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