War game scenario's

Vlad Plasmius said:

A very likely scenario would be:

A massive, surprise air campaign that is launched quickly and consists of glide bombs, LACMs, ASCM, ARMs, and several fighter squadrons.

There is also one possibility I've entertained. Converting hundreds of J-6s and old J-7s to drone configurations and launching them all towards Taiwan. Perhaps launch glide bombs in front to take out weapon depots and air defense batteries. The result would be complete exhaustion of Taiwan's air defense missiles, making it easy to acquire air superiority.

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For naval simulations, I personally used Harpoon III ANW. I used it to simulate a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for a paper (got additional marks for making original research and comparing it already published research), and I played both China and Taiwan to see how a war would end up. My analysis said China would win, but with heavy losses in aircraft.

Pointblank said:

For naval simulations, I personally used Harpoon III ANW. I used it to simulate a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for a paper (got additional marks for making original research and comparing it already published research), and I played both China and Taiwan to see how a war would end up. My analysis said China would win, but with heavy losses in aircraft.

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The PLA has over whelming force....A win would be expected.

Pointblank in your war game scenario did you interject any poential US forces on the ROC side? If so what happened? thanks!

bd popeye said:

The PLA has over whelming force....A win would be expected.

Pointblank in your war game scenario did you interject any poential US forces on the ROC side? If so what happened? thanks!

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Only aerial aircraft from Okinawa in the first scenario that I created indicated a virtual surprise attack, though the masking of invasion forces through a regular exercise. This scenario indicated that the Taiwanese needed to sustain less than 80% casualties in aerial and naval ships over the next 72 hours to await American carrier reinforcements. The next scenario when the Americans were able to intervene, that got bloody. The carrier battle group entered from the edge of the map, and took time to arrive near Taiwan, and the Chinese had time to lay out a submarine trap, and were able to serverly maul American forces. Chinese losses in surface ships were kept to a minimum at first because they were kept under close Chinese air cover, until the threat from aircraft diminished and they were used in hit and run attacks on the carrier force. Lessons learned:

1. Any war between China and the USA would be extremely costly in terms of losses on both sides, in ships, aircraft, and men. It is a far cry from a similar simulation that predicted a war in 1996, where Chinese capabilities were not as strong as they are before, where such a scenario predicted a complete massacre of Chinese military units. The Chinese were able to inflict more losses (instead of just a few aircraft as in the 1996 scenario), with ships being sunk by the Chinese or being heavily damaged.

2. One carrier group at the current air wing strength of USN carriers may not be enough to halt a Chinese invasion. I modified the scenario somewhat to include two carrier task forces and that even the scenario up a bit, which included air forces at Okinawa.

3. A permanent forward deployment of a squadron's worth of F-22 Raptors will also act an excellent deterrent. Such a deployment would also even out the odds considerably in favour of the ROC and the USA.

4. Attacks on Kadena Air Base on Okinawa cannot be ruled out, with aircraft and ballistic missiles. I was able to neutralize Okinawa for a while to continue operations against Taiwan in the scenarios through ballistic missile attacks on the air base, which intermittent bomber raids to keep Okinawa out of commission. Deployment of at least a battalion of Patriot missiles to shore up air defence against such threats is essential. This is the major danger of airfields, they are static, and comparatively easy to suppress. I would suggest that on top of deploying at least a battalion of Patriot missiles to Kadena Air Base, the forward deployment of another carrier in the Asia Pacific Region to add flexibility and an increase in firepower in the region.

Thanks for your response.

The only part of your war game I really hold in question are the real ASW, ECM and AAW ablity of the PLAN.

Well plus these items:

You know, in real life, the F-22's have finally arrived at Kadena.



Also was the US ECM ablity taken into consideration? What sort of BM's were used? Were they all nukes? If they were nukes the equation changes quite a bit.

Did the USN have the use of at least one Ohio Class SSGN?

Thanks!

For naval simulations, I personally used Harpoon III ANW. I used it to simulate a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for a paper (got additional marks for making original research and comparing it already published research), and I played both China and Taiwan to see how a war would end up. My analysis said China would win, but with heavy losses in aircraft.

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I'm actually kind of tired of hearing these kinds of assessments. Taiwan isn't losing its edge, it never really had an edge. All that's changed is China has become increasingly capable of pulling off a win before U.S. forces can interject.

China is now very near the point where they can build an enforceable beachfront in a day or two, much faster than a carrier could react, it may not even be enough time for Congress to even sneeze in the direction of authorizing use of force on any level.

I think once these weapons are fully inducted Taiwan will have little hope:

Zubr class
071 LPD
long-range LACM (DH-10?)
LS-6

Those, in addition to other weapons like ARMs and BMs, give China the capacity to launch a massive debilitating air strike that can be quickly followed up by a paradrop, helodrop and amphibious landing. All of it capable of being launched with very limited warning.

I'm actually kind of tired of hearing these kinds of assessments. Taiwan isn't losing its edge, it never really had an edge. All that's changed is China has become increasingly capable of pulling off a win before U.S. forces can interject.

China is now very near the point where they can build an enforceable beachfront in a day or two, much faster than a carrier could react, it may not even be enough time for Congress to even sneeze in the direction of authorizing use of force on any level.

I think once these weapons are fully inducted Taiwan will have little hope:

Zubr class
071 LPD
long-range LACM (DH-10?)
LS-6

Those, in addition to other weapons like ARMs and BMs, give China the capacity to launch a massive debilitating air strike that can be quickly followed up by a paradrop, helodrop and amphibious landing. All of it capable of being launched with very limited warning.

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.....and offcourse you "forget" to mention that the year, PLANs amphibious forces are in the level to actually do something else than be practice targets for Taiwanese coastal defences are (taking account the pace of the modernisation) somewhere near 2020.

They have just launched their first docking ship for cry out loud! That doesent mean anything when it comes to the operational level of chinese marines that havent never used such ships and can really realistically expect to be quite unfamiliar with the whole concept of modern landing assaults.
Also, there isent sufficent Heliborne troops or helicopters fully intact that we could speak PLA possesing anything in this field to recon with. All we know, that they are gradually processing to move to that field, but a high level doctrinal change NEVER and I say again NEVER makes the actual tactical level to change overnigth and be professional in the new their new shop.....perhaps in computer games, when you can 'upgrate' your troops, but in real life....

PLAN has no means for rapid take over of Taiwan. The Ballisitic missile threath is really a myth if you look it more closely, with out WMD, they compare to the fire level of one group army doing some small sunday firing with its artillery.

There still isent PLAAFs true close-air support assets, no attack helicopters and PLAN as a naval force is still maturing out of the centralised lead coastal defence into something that could be called a fleet. Its amphibious force still reliving some invasion of Okinawa, its C4 assets are just showing first sings of lifes....China is huge and powerfull, but still guite teetheless in what comes to invasion of Island nations, a task that is argubly the most hardest and difficoult one of all military operations.

So if you want to play realistic wargame scenarios, take account of the reality of PLAs capacities instead of what you want them to be.

I refer to a large debilitating airstrike for a reason. The use of ballistic missile to damage airbase runways and use of glide bombs, cruise missiles, ARMs, and other guided munitions could quickly erode the defenses. I'm not sure exactly how much they have with regards to anti-ship missiles though. Ultimately the idea would be to sink much, if not the entire ROCN in the first few hours of the fight.

Also, with Zubrs and 071s and extensive air support it would be possible. The idea would be to act quick and without warning, which could leave forces on the beaches in the first few hours, maybe the first hour. Then establishing a beachhead would be easier.

Pointblank said:

For naval simulations, I personally used Harpoon III ANW. I used it to simulate a Chinese invasion of Taiwan for a paper (got additional marks for making original research and comparing it already published research), and I played both China and Taiwan to see how a war would end up. My analysis said China would win, but with heavy losses in aircraft.

Click to expand...

I used the Harpoon III software engine and data base for many of the war games in my:



of novels which is, after all, really just a huge war game scenario with a large plot and a lot of characteriaation and geopolitics that large plot and sttoryline entails.

I modified the database to interject the supercavitating weapons, and other weapons I introduce in the seres.

Lots of fun doing that, and pretty enlightening and sobering as well.

Yes, thecnically Zurbs would do, But China hasent got them yet
They are good for make speed dash to inflirtate SOWs or greate beach head to support local fighting, but in theather role they make little difference. You cannot overlook the fact that Taiwan has its own landforces to strike against those beach heads, and chinese marines lacks the fire support element to enable the landed first wave to survive in battle against Superior Taiwanese mechanised units.
The overal state of Chinese marines are still far behind of those you need to conduct theather landings

Zubr class?? I keep reading that name. But some time ago I read that only a handful were ever built.

Right now, today..How many does the PLAN have?..Zero

Have any contracts been signed for more to be reproduced?