Venezuela 'sends tanks to border'

  • Thread starter Deleted member 675
  • Start date

Pointblank

Senior Member
I do not believe Columbia has "stood down". They had not built up on these borders to begin with. In this case, they are simply maintaining their readiness posture and not massing their own troops directly across from the Venezuelans.

This does not mean at all that they are unprepared.

Now, in an opening, first move, Venezuelan forces may experience some temporary success...but Chavez and his forces would then pay a heavy price because that activity, which then would be an overt military act of war against the military and infrastructure of their neighbor (which the border incursion by Columbia to take out terrorists was not), and would then be reacted to as such and the Columbians would undoubtedly receive mucho US aid, both logistically and I believe in terms of forces as well.

I believe Chavez would be foolish to try it. He would risk losing his entire modern military capability which he has spent so much money acquiring.

But that's just my opinion, nothing more.

Not only that, a good portion of his modern military is useless along the border regions. Tanks can't fight in a dense rain forest, and neither can fighter jets. The Colombians have the upper hand in this area due to their experience in jungle warfare, and the training they have received from some of the best US Army units and personnel specialized in jungle warfare.
 

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
To Pointblank

Chavez and staff are well aware of limitations. The move was more for deterance then anything else. Primary objective to deter any future incursions. I believe it would be very foolish of Colombia to risk a limited operation again, regardless of Venuzelas capabilities. The airfore of Venazula is not that bad. It is superior to CAF in fact, If they wanted to they could clear CAF from the sky's and force civilian aircraft to remain grounded. Which I think is unlikely because not primary objective.

Diplomatically the OAS has condemned violation of incursion but colombia knew this would happen. With the US support Colombia is immune from any meaningful action. However the negative fallout of violanting a "democratic" country is not gonna win Colombia more friends in Latin America. Sine the end Cold War, US influence has been steadly declining. Left wingers do not have to fear US backed insurgencies and coups on the pretext of fighting communism. Remember people who launched these past operations are in senior positions in Washington.
 
Last edited:

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
I do not believe Columbia has "stood down". They had not built up on these borders to begin with. In this case, they are simply maintaining their readiness posture and not massing their own troops directly across from the Venezuelans.

This does not mean at all that they are unprepared.

Now, in an opening, first move, Venezuelan forces may experience some temporary success...but Chavez and his forces would then pay a heavy price because that activity, which then would be an overt military act of war against the military and infrastructure of their neighbor (which the border incursion by Columbia to take out terrorists was not), and would then be reacted to as such and the Columbians would undoubtedly receive mucho US aid, both logistically and I believe in terms of forces as well.

I believe Chavez would be foolish to try it. He would risk losing his entire modern military capability which he has spent so much money acquiring.

But that's just my opinion, nothing more.

Like I said to Pointblank. Chavez and Ecauder's move was more for diplomatic show not for desire for military action.

Likewise, what I am saying is speculative. I do not doubt your military analyse but I think you neglect the diplomatic sphere.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Like I said to Pointblank. Chavez and Ecauder's move was more for diplomatic show not for desire for military action.

Likewise, what I am saying is speculative. I do not doubt your military analyse but I think you neglect the diplomatic sphere.
IMHO, whatever diplomatic currency Chavez had with non-aligned countries over this is being completely negated and overshadowed by the publication of the evidence found in the FARC camp regarding Chavez's culpability and support of FARC.

He has been caught with his proverbial hand deep inside the cookie jar.
 

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
IMHO, whatever diplomatic currency Chavez had with non-aligned countries over this is being completely negated and overshadowed by the publication of the evidence found in the FARC camp regarding Chavez's culpability and support of FARC.

He has been caught with his proverbial hand deep inside the cookie jar.

Even Ortega the blast from the past has broken relations with Colombia.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Three countries now broke relations. Bolivia and Cuba are also in the left camp. Brazil, Peru and Costia Rica are neutral. Many others have benefited from cheap oil and loans from Chavez. Regarding the laptop evidence this is gonna be hotly disputed, no nation in S America will break relations with Venuzuela over this cited evidence. Maybe cause some kind of diplomatic repucussions but nothing major.

Lastly if Chavez sticks to soft power then his aims are more likely to be succesful.
 

Baibar of Jalat

Junior Member
What I have been trying to say all along(article). It is a dangerous precendent. Due to taiwan is not even recognised as a nation and most adhere to idea it is apart of PRC. An attack and invasion by the Chinese is as justified considering no one is respecting international law especially in regards to weaker nations thenselves.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Colombia's cross-border attack may have been illegal, experts sayBy Pablo Bachelet | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Thursday, March 6, 2008 email | print tool nameclose
tool goes here
WASHINGTON - When a rebel base in Ecuador was bombed with devastating effect last weekend, Colombia joined countries such as Israel, Turkey and the United States in claiming self-defense as it hit terrorist targets beyond its national borders.

Many Colombian and U.S. officials say the Colombians did nothing wrong by hitting a base of the guerrilla group known as the FARC in the first cross-border armed incursion in Latin America since the Peru-Ecuador border conflict in 1995.

"It certainly seems to me ... that the Colombian government had the right to take action against a terrorist who was striking at them from a camp in Ecuador,'' Sen. Joseph Lieberman, an independent Democrat, said at a hearing Thursday.

But Ecuador and Venezuela have claimed the strikes were illegal, and many experts agree that they might be right.

As an Organization of American States mission heads to the conflict zone next week to investigate the bombing, the case underscores the thorny legal complexities involved when governments seek to balance national sovereignty issues with the right of nations to defend themselves from terrorist attacks.

"Almost regardless of the provocation, Colombia cannot justify a military and physical violation of Ecuador's territorial integrity, so long as the government of Ecuador is not directly engaged in an aggressive action against the government of Colombia, '' said Mark Schneider, with the International Crisis Group, a London-based organization that tracks international trouble spots. "Even then they should respond with diplomatic tools, not military force.''

A top Colombian guerrilla leader and at least 16 gunmen died in the March 1 bombing, which was a terrifying blow to Latin America's most enduring insurgency.

Colombia followed its bombing with a military raid into Ecuador to gather evidence, which even the Colombians said violated Ecuador's territorial sovereignty. But Colombia maintains that its initial airstrike was justified and that Venezuela and Ecuador should be held accountable for harboring terrorists.

Colombian officials argue that their country was fired upon from the Ecuadorean side of the border, meaning that its action was in self-defense. The Ecuadoreans deny this, noting that most of the dead guerrillas were in their pajamas. They also said that the Colombian aircraft fired from within Ecuadorean airspace.

Colombia said it told the Ecuadorean government on 10 occasions, dating back to January 2006, to clear the FARC camps. Colombia's ambassador to the OAS, Camilo Ospina, told journalists Thursday that officials did not go public with its plans "because if you tell a criminal you're going to pick him up, he runs away.''

Colombia also said that Ecuador and Venezuela are violating post-Sept. 11 U.N. and OAS agreements to deny haven to terrorists.

Evidence produced by computers seized in the raids suggest that Ecuador not only knew of the FARC camps but also was negotiating deals with the group, which the United States and the European Union have declared a terrorist organization. The Colombians said there is evidence that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was providing the FARC with $300 million.

The case has some loose parallels with recent strikes by other nations. Israel's cross-border attacks against the Palestinians and Hezbollah are different because Israel is attacking a foreign, not domestic, enemy. U.S. strikes against al Qaida also target foreigners, the experts say, and recent missile attacks in Somalia and Pakistan had the tacit support of governments there.

Most agree that the U.S. actions in Afghanistan complied with international laws, while the Iraq invasion did not.

The Colombian case most resembles the Turkish incursions into northern Iraq to clear Kurdish rebels, said Schneider. That attack is also wrong, he said.

Colombia, he said, should have taken its case to the OAS, the U.N. Security Council and even The Hague-based International Court of Justice, which determines whether nations are violating international treaties.

"Frankly, I think unfortunately Ecuador has a stronger argument,'' said Frank Mora, a professor of national security strategy at the National War College.

Experts say countries can legally attack foreign terrorists or guerrillas within very narrowly defined contexts, such as when there is a hot pursuit or in self-defense, which Colombia might argue before the OAS mission.

But the Colombians seem to have set aside the armed option for now.

Ospina said Colombia would use "diplomatic action.'' If a country is shown to back terrorists, it would "use the judicial option'' -- meaning The Hague-based international tribunals.

McClatchy Newspapers 2008
 
Last edited:
D

Deleted member 675

Guest
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The presidents of Ecuador, Venezuela and Colombia have shaken hands at a regional summit, marking the end of a diplomatic crisis in the Andean region. The crisis had been triggered by a cross-border raid by Colombian troops into Ecuador to attack Farc rebels.

Earlier there had been heated exchanges between the heads of state at the Rio Group summit in the Dominican Republic. The summit of Latin American leaders had originally been planned to discuss energy and other issues. But the crisis, which started with the raid last Saturday, had erupted into the worst political spat in the region for years.

Venezuela and Ecuador cut diplomatic ties with Bogota and sent troops to their borders after the Colombian operation which left 20 Farc rebels dead, including a senior Farc commander, Raul Reyes. As the summit debate unfolded, Colombia's defence minister announced that another rebel leader, Ivan Rios, had been killed - this time on Colombian soil and at the hands of his own men.

Looks like Chavez realised he'd gone too far - it's a good thing Colombia stayed cool and refused to up the ante.

So the question is - what happens when Chavez tries to play chicken with a party that is as obstinant or more so than he is? :confused:
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Colombia's defence minister announced that another rebel leader, Ivan Rios, had been killed - this time on Colombian soil and at the hands of his own men.
Sounds like Colombia's raid last week, killing the number two man in FARC and netting a treasure trove of intelligence (incluidng documentation of Venezuela's funding) is netting benefits far wider than Colombia planned on.
 
Last edited:

Pointblank

Senior Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!




Looks like Chavez realised he'd gone too far - it's a good thing Colombia stayed cool and refused to up the ante.

So the question is - what happens when Chavez tries to play chicken with a party that is as obstinant or more so than he is? :confused:

Good to see cooler heads prevail... and I bet Chavez had a piece of humble pie now that everyone knows that his hands were in the cookie jar...
 
D

Deleted member 675

Guest
I bet Chavez had a piece of humble pie now that everyone knows that his hands were in the cookie jar...

Yes, if the reports about the laptops is true he'd have every reason to pull back from a conflict - it's unlikely he'd win over much Latin American support if there was even a credible suspicion he'd been helping FARC all the time.
 
Top