US Navy & PLAN - South China Sea Situation News (Closed)

Brumby · Oct 31, 2015

Jeff Head said:
This exercise would have had a heavy hand from the CINC, meaning the POTUS.

You can be sure that the Lassen was doing exactly what it had been ordered to do.

As I said all along, this was more about (from the US standpoint) punctuating FON to the world, but making sure they did so with full disclosure and (IMHO) making arrangements beforehand with the PRC so there would be no miscalculations.

These further details just punctuate and re-emphasize that.

I recognise that it is the fault of the present administration and not the USN as its hands are tied.

Going by the details, one can argue equally that it was simply innocent passage as it was FON. If the whole exercise was to demonstrate FON then in my view it has failed to conclusively demonstrate it. This does not project confidence to its allies regarding US actions. In my view if the administration cannot bring itself to conduct certain actions with firmness than it is better off that nothing is done as at least there is ambiguity in it.

MwRYum · Oct 31, 2015

Brumby said:
The whole point of the FONOP was to make a statement and you don't make a statement by being vague. In contrast, the purpose of being vague is to achieve an end without making a statement like many of China's actions.

The underline message is that both Washington and Beijing comes away with what they wanted, what you read as leaving it vague is what in political lingo as open to interpretation, which works best for both parties in practical sense, alas Beijing still comes away from this whole thing with a hurted pride. But then again, Beijing has time and again picked a course that'd reap long-term benefit at the cost of "face" and pride, something that most people failed to see.

Bltizo said:
I'm sure China is happy to hear that. I wonder if the incoming DPP government would change Taiwan's policy on the SCS as well as the Philippines' court case at all.

The DPP candidate's election platform did stated that Taiwan will abandon the SCS domain.

Blitzo · Oct 31, 2015

Brumby said:
The whole point of the FONOP was to make a statement and you don't make a statement by being vague. In contrast, the purpose of being vague is to achieve an end without making a statement like many of China's actions.

I can understand that the USN needs to balance its actions without being seen as too provocative within the 12 nm. If launching a helicopter was deemed too provocative, the transit through the 12 nm by the P-8 would be the alternative to punctuate the point that it is FON and not innocent passage. I agree loitering would suggest that it is FON and not innocent passage but is the combination of the actions that make the whole exercise ultimately dubious in nature. In my view the exercise had to be firm and clear but not provocative. What I see in the details are a set of actions that are wavering and that simply lack the will to execute a firm message. If I was the Chinese, it signals to me an administration that is unsure of its own actions. That means full steam ahead for the Chinese because when it comes to the punch, the Obama administration just don't have what it takes.

Hmm I'm not sure about that -- the fact that Lassen loitered in the area, and the fact that there was P-8 support (despite flying outside the 12nmi limit) says to me that it should reach the minimum standard for not being innocent passage despite the fact that they may have claimed to have been doing innocent passage. The relatively high profile nature of this action, along with the rhetoric that has preceded it, along with the actual action taken, seems like quite a firm message to me.

Sending a P-8 inside the 12nmi or sending a helicopter up would likely be a far more provocative action.
Then again, if this occurred a decade or two ago, I'm sure the US would have been quite happy to do all that, and maybe more, due to the fact that China probably wouldn't have been able to respond to a firmer message/perceived provocative action in any meaningful tactical or strategic way, at this present relatively medium level of tension.

So I'd say this doesn't necessarily reflect poorly on the US's will, but rather it reflects on the gains in Chinese military, political and economic power in recent years instead.

Brumby · Oct 31, 2015

Bltizo said:
Hmm I'm not sure about that -- the fact that Lassen loitered in the area, and the fact that there was P-8 support (despite flying outside the 12nmi limit) says to me that it should reach the minimum standard for not being innocent passage despite the fact that they may have claimed to have been doing innocent passage. The relatively high profile nature of this action, along with the rhetoric that has preceded it, along with the actual action taken, seems like quite a firm message to me.

Sending a P-8 inside the 12nmi or sending a helicopter up would likely be a far more provocative action.
Then again, if this occurred a decade or two ago, I'm sure the US would have been quite happy to do all that, and maybe more, due to the fact that China probably wouldn't have been able to respond to a firmer message/perceived provocative action in any meaningful tactical or strategic way, at this present relatively medium level of tension.

So I'd say this doesn't necessarily reflect poorly on the US's will, but rather it reflects on the gains in Chinese military, political and economic power in recent years instead.

My point is that if you don't have intention to do a job properly then don't do it at all. It is symptomatic of an administration with all the form but no substance.

a1a2a3a4a5a6a · Oct 31, 2015

MwRYum said:
alas Beijing still comes away from this whole thing with a hurted pride. But then again, Beijing has time and again picked a course that'd reap long-term benefit at the cost of "face" and pride, something that most people failed to see.

I don't know the reason that you continuously insisted on a "hurted pride" for China. The reality is a rising superpower, China, has established a position in South China Sea, where the reigning superpower, the US, couldn't remove short of war and staged a tour in the name of FoN to please its Asian allies and reenforce its influence. China is gaining in strategic terms for this geopolitical game and the situation in South China Sea is better than a stale-mate for China. For all the Chinese I know and observed, they aren't emotionally hurt for this incident at all, nor do they want the Chinese government to act particularly dramatic.

Of course, what the media said can always be entirely something else.

antiterror13 · Oct 31, 2015

a1a2a3a4a5a6a said:
I don't know the reason that you continuously insisted on a "hurted pride" for China. The reality is a rising superpower, China, has established a position in South China Sea, where the reigning superpower, the US, couldn't remove short of war and staged a tour in the name of FoN to please its Asian allies. China is gaining in strategic terms for this geopolitical game and the situation in South China Sea is better than a stale-mate for China. For all the Chinese I know and observed, they aren't emotionally hurt for this incident at all, nor do they want the Chinese government to act particularly dramatic.

Of course, what the media said can always be entirely something else.

Totally agree, the "incident" showed that Chinese' geopolitical strength (and military) has increased dramatically. It is a good thing in my opinion for both China and the US .. like Jeff said many times.

I am sure the USN not only sent Lassen, but also one or two SSN were around the area (of course outside 12 nm) and I heard also CVN Reagan was in full alert, not too far from the area.

I am sure China knew about this and Chinese responses are just because they had to do that ..... as simple as that

a1a2a3a4a5a6a · Oct 31, 2015

antiterror13 said:
Totally agree, the "incident" showed that Chinese' geopolitical strength (and military) has increased dramatically. It is a good thing in my opinion for both China and the US .. like Jeff said many times.

I am sure the USN not only sent Lassen, but also one or two SSN were around the area (of course outside 12 nm) and I heard also CVN Reagan was in full alert, not too far from the area.

I am sure China knew about this and Chinese responses are just because they had to do that ..... as simple as that

The incident was announced well in advance, so that both sides were prepared to "act by the script", where avoiding any real confrontation as well as serving each others agenda. To have offered this kind of "coordination", should we consider this incident as the US acknowledging the rising geopolitical as well as military status of China instead? And the fact is after all the smoke, the artificial islands are staying and will be further developed with more support for militarization. How could there be any "hurted pride"?

Blitzo · Oct 31, 2015

Brumby said:
My point is that if you don't have intention to do a job properly then don't do it at all. It is symptomatic of an administration with all the form but no substance.

I think the administration probably believed the way they did their job was consistent with what they were willing to risk versus China and consistent with their intended objectives.

Whether they were able to do more is dependent on whether they were willing to risk more...

ahojunk · Oct 31, 2015

Thank goodness. The cool heads of Xi and Obama have prevailed. I was afraid that a miscalculation by either side would result in an incident which would benefit no one.

They have "scripted" this as the FON was announced shortly after Xi's state visit to US. It is not in their interests to get into a conflict with each other. (China needs the US market and the US needs China's money.)

Both US and China got what they wanted, and they can both claim "victory".

In this particular "geopolitical game", I would say the Chinese and Americans both have played it well.

antiterror13 · Nov 1, 2015

There is extremely slim chance a miscalculation would occur ... there is a reason why 052C/052D was sent by PLAN.

China knew the war with the US is the last think they want and it would be the war they couldn't win. For the US also very similar, they may be able to win the naval war against China in SCS but the question is with what cost? and the future consequences and geopolitic would be totally unpredictable. Including economic consequences, imagine what would happen to the world economy if the war broke between the US and China in SCS

US Navy & PLAN - South China Sea Situation News (Closed)

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