Ukrainian War Developments

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taxiya

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Overbom said:
Got to say that the US has handled this pretty well.

The way they have played this, if Putin attacks, Russia gets crippling economic sanctions which means another lost decade for the Russian economy. Plus Europe's/Germany's economy will fall and cause capital flight to the US treasuries.

If Putin backs down it will be seen as a humiliation and also make Eastern Europe to see the US as a worthy ally.

Really, I can't see any way the US gets out of this damaged. Its all positives for them. If I was Biden now, I will most likely be praying that Putin attacks Ukraine. This way the US would be the biggest winner while Russia/EU would be the losers.

For Russia, the only way they avoid this is if they convince Germany to stay on their side (doubtful) or if Russia finds an unorthodox way to deal with Ukraine ("little green men" Crimea style)
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What about Putin just keep this tension as long as he want without physically attacking Ukraine? Without attack, there is no EU sanctions. With China's oil and gas contract recently, Putin has increased his bargain power over EU and secured Russia's economy to hold on for longer time. Then how long is EU willing to pay the high price of gas? Once EU's patience run out, I don't see how long US could hold it up.

When Russia repeated "no attack" for so many times, I am actually inclined to believe it because I think Putin is actually doing what I suggested.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

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The more I think about it, the more Syria seems like an illustrative model for what Putin intends in Ukraine. I was looking to see if someone else had this idea and sure enough:
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James here knows what he's talking about. If you know who he is, you know he was on the receiving end of Putin's counterinsurgency strategies.
 
j17wang

j17wang

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Overbom said:
Afghanistan was different. That was a months long civil war with steady fighting by both sides.

This time round it will be a lighting-quick operation with modern weaponry that will cause x times more casualties. I dont see how China can keep its staff in the embassy with an (potential) active war happening between 2 states.
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If we are speaking in hypotheticals, neither Russia or Ukraine will be targeting anywhere close to the chinese embassy. Again, a non-existent event requires a non-existent response.
 
clockwork

clockwork

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ZeEa5KPul said:
I cannot wait until those silos are complete and start getting loaded. I'm pretty sure US intelligence agencies will be able to get at least a rough estimate of the expansion of China's nuclear arsenal. In the coming years, this will certainly be accompanied by drip-fed hysteria in US media, along with constant shrieks to rope China into arms control agreements. This will serve the very useful purpose of fixing in the American mind the idea that China can annihilate America.

Yes, it's true that Ukraine has little bearing on Taiwan. China won't win by breaking America's resolve, but by becoming strong enough to destroy America's military.
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China should hold a parade or find some other excuse for an occasion where they can gather all of the mobile TELs together in the same shot, just to make it clear to them how many of those there are as well. I don't know how much the mobile ICBM force is expanding but it can't be that much less than the silo-based force.
 
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