Perhaps. Let's wait and see. I've been convinced in the last 72 hours it was going to go down. Stuff like this made me think so:
Ukrainian War Developments
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Perhaps. Let's wait and see. I've been convinced in the last 72 hours it was going to go down. Stuff like this made me think so:
Could this be why?Ukraine could drop its bid to join NATO to avoid war with Russia, the BBC quoted the country's ambassador to Britain as saying, in what would amount to a major concession to Moscow in response to the build-up of Russian troops on its borders.
Is it possible that this has been communicated, already, and back-channel, to Moscow?It’ll be interesting to see if this will be presented as Ukraine having come to this position independently, or if it will be acknowledged that some voices in the west may have encouraged this “evolution”. Ukraine “dropping its bid” would be interpreted as having alternative implications as NATO “revoking its invitation”, offering NATO a face-saving retreat.
Ultimately, with NATO and Europe having stated, explicitly, that they would not provide active military aid in the event of a Russian invasion, stating, effectively, that Ukraine was on its own, Ukraine’s having come to this position independently would simply be the most rational decision for national self-preservation.
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Saudi Arabia asks citizens in Ukraine to contact embassy, arrange immediate departure
Saudi Arabia is requesting citizens in Ukraine to call the local embassy to “facilitate immediate departure” from the country, according to a statement from the embassy on social media.It also asked all citizens to “postpone their travel” until further notice.
UAE embassy in Kyiv requests citizens postpone travel to Ukraine
Qatar calling on citizens to delay Ukraine visits during escalating tensions
Qatar’s warning over citizens traveling to Ukraine comes after reiterating it cannot replace Europe’s energy supply amid a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) is urging its citizens to adjourn any intended travel to Ukraine, unless it is deemed necessary.
STATEMENT: MOROCCAN EMBASSY IN KIEV URGES MOROCCANS IN UKRAINE TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY
SATURDAY 12 FEBRUARY 2022In light of the current situation, the Embassy of the Kingdom of Morocco in Kiev recommends that Moroccan citizens in Ukraine leave the country for their safety via available commercial flights..
The Moroccan embassy in Kiev provides all Moroccans in Ukraine with the following phone numbers:
Ukraine: the Embassy of Algeria launches an appeal to its nationals
February 12, 2022 byIn a statement made public, the Embassy of Algeria in Kiev requested Algerian nationals in Ukraine to update their contact details (address and telephone number) to stay in contact with the diplomatic services in place, in order to to avoid possible unforeseen events.
The Algerian Embassy has made available a toll-free number (0800-500068) to ensure the safety of Algerian nationals in Ukraine.
Jordan urges its citizens to leave Ukraine: Foreign Ministry
Jordan on Saturday called on its nationals to leave Ukraine in light of the "current developments", the foreign ministry said in a statement.
It also called on citizens to postpone any plans to visit the country.
Developing
Kuwait urges citizens to leave Ukraine amid escalation
Kuwait on Saturday urged its citizens in Ukraine to leave the country amid heightened tensions between Kyiv and Moscow.Kuwait’s foreign ministry also said citizens should postpone any plans to visit Ukraine.
Turkey issues travel warning for Ukraine amid escalating tensions
Turkey's foreign ministry has advised its citizens to avoid travelling to eastern amid escalating tensions between and"It is recommended that our citizens refrain from travelling to the eastern border regions of unless they have to," Xinhua news agency reported, citing the ministry's statement.
Malaysia is also pulling ppl
Kremlin does not view Ukraine envoy's NATO comments as official change in Kyiv's position
It appears that the Kremlin aren’t the only ones that take this view. As such, my previous comments regarding Ukraine’s rational decision-making, though logical, seem irrelevant.
Ukrainian ambassador to UK clarifies NATO remarks
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For those who (like me) didn't know until now:
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ЗАКОН УКРАЇНИ
Про внесення змін до Конституції України (щодо стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договору) (Відомості Верховної Ради (ВВР), 2019, № 9, ст.50)
Верховна Рада України постановляє:
I. Внести до Конституції України (Відомості Верховної Ради України, 1996 р., № 30, ст. 141) такі зміни:
1. Абзац п’ятий преамбули після слів "громадянської злагоди на землі України" доповнити словами "та підтверджуючи європейську ідентичність Українського народу і незворотність європейського та євроатлантичного курсу України".
2. Пункт 5 частини першої статті 85 викласти в такій редакції:
"5) визначення засад внутрішньої і зовнішньої політики, реалізації стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договору".
3. Статтю 102 доповнити частиною третьою такого змісту:
"Президент України є гарантом реалізації стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договору".
4. Статтю 116 доповнити пунктом 1-1 такого змісту:
"1-1) забезпечує реалізацію стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договору".
5. Пункт 14 розділу XV "Перехідні положення" виключити.
II. Цей Закон набирає чинності з дня, наступного за днем його опублікування.
Президент України
П.ПОРОШЕНКО
Попередньо схвалений
Верховною Радою України
22 листопада 2018 року
м. Київ
7 лютого 2019 року
№ 2680-VIII
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This is a law changing the Constitution of Ukraine.
Article (Стаття) 85 refers to function of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament),
Article (Стаття) 102 refers to function of the President of Ukaraine
Article (Стаття) 116 refers to function of the Cabinet of Ministers (government)
The phrase:
"стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договорy"
translates as:
"the strategic course of the state towards the acquisition of full membership of Ukraine in the European Union and in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization"
The law entered into effect on the day of its publication (no vacatio legis) on 7 February 2019.
The first round of presidential election occurred on 31 March 2019.
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Russia demands changes to Ukraine's constitution because Ukraine's membership of NATO is an explicit constitutional provision.
To compare:
The Constitution of the Republic of Poland from 2 April 1997 which was adopted to supersede the previous constitution from 1952 adopted under Soviet occupation has no reference to membership in the European Union or NATO. Poland joined NATO in 1999 and the EU in 2004. The 1997 constitution was adopted while the process of accession was already underway with consistently high popular support. In a referendum 2003 which was largely seen as symbolic with 58.9% turnout 77.6% voted in favor of Poland's membership in the EU. Currently support for membership is among the highest in the Union.
Why was this provision introduced to the constitution of Ukraine and why was it introduced two months before elections took place?
Polls leading to the presidential and parliamentary election in 2019:
Opinion polling on Ukraine's membership in NATO:
International Republic Institute poll from November of 2021, later cited by Euromaidan Press:
"When asked which international economic union they would join if Ukraine could only join one, 58% of Ukrainians chose the EU. Only 21% support joining a Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. If a referendum were held on joining NATO, 54% would vote to join the military alliance."
Pay attention to the wording. Only 54% of the respondents would support NATO accession in a referendum while in the east the support was so far below 50%. Referendum can easily become highly divisive and destabilizing, can be influenced by external and recent events and have an outcome different from that predicted by polls.
In this context making Ukraine's full membership in NATO an explicit constitutional provision seems to me very much like "asking for it".
But what do I know? I'm just some grumpy guy on the internet. All I can say that as I was paying attention to the crisis I completely missed that important element. And that's mostly because nobody seems to be talking about it in the western media and I haven't paid any attention to Ukrainian politics until very recently. I only found out about it today, by complete accident while talking to an Ukrainian. So... there you go.
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ЗАКОН УКРАЇНИ
Про внесення змін до Конституції України (щодо стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договору) (Відомості Верховної Ради (ВВР), 2019, № 9, ст.50)
Верховна Рада України постановляє:
I. Внести до Конституції України (Відомості Верховної Ради України, 1996 р., № 30, ст. 141) такі зміни:
1. Абзац п’ятий преамбули після слів "громадянської злагоди на землі України" доповнити словами "та підтверджуючи європейську ідентичність Українського народу і незворотність європейського та євроатлантичного курсу України".
2. Пункт 5 частини першої статті 85 викласти в такій редакції:
"5) визначення засад внутрішньої і зовнішньої політики, реалізації стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договору".
3. Статтю 102 доповнити частиною третьою такого змісту:
"Президент України є гарантом реалізації стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договору".
4. Статтю 116 доповнити пунктом 1-1 такого змісту:
"1-1) забезпечує реалізацію стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договору".
5. Пункт 14 розділу XV "Перехідні положення" виключити.
II. Цей Закон набирає чинності з дня, наступного за днем його опублікування.
Президент України
П.ПОРОШЕНКО
Попередньо схвалений
Верховною Радою України
22 листопада 2018 року
м. Київ
7 лютого 2019 року
№ 2680-VIII
-------
This is a law changing the Constitution of Ukraine.
Article (Стаття) 85 refers to function of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament),
Article (Стаття) 102 refers to function of the President of Ukaraine
Article (Стаття) 116 refers to function of the Cabinet of Ministers (government)
The phrase:
"стратегічного курсу держави на набуття повноправного членства України в Європейському Союзі та в Організації Північноатлантичного договорy"
translates as:
"the strategic course of the state towards the acquisition of full membership of Ukraine in the European Union and in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization"
The law entered into effect on the day of its publication (no vacatio legis) on 7 February 2019.
The first round of presidential election occurred on 31 March 2019.
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Russia demands changes to Ukraine's constitution because Ukraine's membership of NATO is an explicit constitutional provision.
To compare:
The Constitution of the Republic of Poland from 2 April 1997 which was adopted to supersede the previous constitution from 1952 adopted under Soviet occupation has no reference to membership in the European Union or NATO. Poland joined NATO in 1999 and the EU in 2004. The 1997 constitution was adopted while the process of accession was already underway with consistently high popular support. In a referendum 2003 which was largely seen as symbolic with 58.9% turnout 77.6% voted in favor of Poland's membership in the EU. Currently support for membership is among the highest in the Union.
Why was this provision introduced to the constitution of Ukraine and why was it introduced two months before elections took place?
Polls leading to the presidential and parliamentary election in 2019:
Opinion polling on Ukraine's membership in NATO:
International Republic Institute poll from November of 2021, later cited by Euromaidan Press:
"When asked which international economic union they would join if Ukraine could only join one, 58% of Ukrainians chose the EU. Only 21% support joining a Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. If a referendum were held on joining NATO, 54% would vote to join the military alliance."
Pay attention to the wording. Only 54% of the respondents would support NATO accession in a referendum while in the east the support was so far below 50%. Referendum can easily become highly divisive and destabilizing, can be influenced by external and recent events and have an outcome different from that predicted by polls.
In this context making Ukraine's full membership in NATO an explicit constitutional provision seems to me very much like "asking for it".
But what do I know? I'm just some grumpy guy on the internet. All I can say that as I was paying attention to the crisis I completely missed that important element. And that's mostly because nobody seems to be talking about it in the western media and I haven't paid any attention to Ukrainian politics until very recently. I only found out about it today, by complete accident while talking to an Ukrainian. So... there you go.
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Possibly, inserted in response to the Russian annexing of Crimea?
What stops Russia from building up military infrastructures and make the deployment permanent? At this rate Ukrainian economy is going to collapse. Put more S400 there and Ukrainian airspace will stay forever uninsurable.
Not that I want it to happen, of course.
Not that I want it to happen, of course.
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