Ukrainian War Developments

If the Europeans or the poles, Romanians, Czechs were one moment openly braying for war with Russia and wanting to supply fighter jets and then the next day awfully quiet and the picture of world peace, man, that can only mean their master in Washington/Langley changed their minds and gave the order to stand down.

if there is to be another thirty years war in Europe, let us hope it’ll inspire Some sort of actual nationalism and independence from these European statelets

anzha said:

The Russians massed around 160 to 200k troops before the fighting started. Why would they not move them all in asap? Even if you are not going full out Stalin's organs on anything that moves, why wait to commit the entirety of your force as fast as possible?

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From my military experience there would be a couple reasons. You never fully commit, you need reserves so should you take casualties you can plug holes. For every 1 front-line solider there are at least 3-4 logistics personnel to enure that front line soldier gets what he needs( fuel, ammo, food/water ETC) and that is just a rough estimate. In Iraq we had 5 logistic to every 1 grunt. Another was air, it did take Russia some time to get that air superiority and they are still taking casualties from the air. Your territory is much easier to defend than to defend a fluid battle line from the air. Also the ground at this time of year stinks and the Russians have tried to stay on roads. That would mean even more bottle necks which present prime targets.

There are probably more reasons but this what came to my head from my experience.

Abominable said:

This map looks like a reasonable option.

Split the country into two divided by the red line, India - Pakistan style. Ethnic groups on either side can freely choose to migrate to either side. Both regions respect and allow the use of either language.

The right half becomes a region of Russia, the left half becomes a demilitarised non aligned independent state.

It may be a good idea to hold a plebiscite in the purple region to stop that becoming a future Kashmir problem with Hungary.

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That might be too greedy. They'll fight to the death to avoid that which Russia could oblige but I sense Russia would be OK with a little less in exchange for calming the situation down and forcing them to settle so Russia sustains minimum damage. Russia is likely to conquer it anyways but trade it back if sanctions cancellation are on the table.

That way Russia only gains in the aftermath.

anzha said:

Have you been to Ukraine? Have you been to the Donbas?

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not trying to reply to one liners when the mod already gave a warning to it where my one liners will get responded back, but those reports were pending for 8 years and got ignored by the west.

Seems attack on kyiv was a double feint, if it worked, good, if not, it pulled UkA mobile reserves to defend the capital and away from the south. The main objective is the operational encirclement of the bulk of the UkA east of the Dnieper River,

That Lukasenko presentation about the activity was very interesting.

On the map the many details , and the USA 1st Cavalry Division insignia .

Poland and the baltics had many details, but Slo/Hun/Ro haven't got any.



I think it is a polite notification / warning.

Now, if we check on the Google earth the 1000 km distance from Moscow


Anything outside the circle needs 10 minutes of flight time to reach moscow.
And the countries detailed in lukasenko presentation the ones are within the circle.
Finland - neutral, without USA units, the three baltic state, and Poland.

I would be paranoid if I am polish .

Phead128 said:

I thought the same way too until I learned that Russia had been fighting a proxy war in Ukraine for 8 years since 2014 Euromaidan coup as a way to have a veto over Ukraine foreign policy orientation, but proxy war and diplomacy failed fo shake Ukraine resolve to EU/NATO, so he felt forced to go bigger, and maybe pandemic is a good time to do it while countries were disarrayed.

So perhaps Putin thinks a failed state in Ukraine is worth it, otherwise a prosperous democratic EU-aligned Ukraine could spread similar Euromaidan revolutions in Russia. Putin likely thought of his own future and needed to make a Ukraine a fail state to protect his own future.

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If it is that simple, then why there are Orange revolution and Maidan Revolution. Remember how Orange Revolution overthrow the pro-Russia Ukrainian party and failed to deliver their promises.

After multiple pro-West presidents failed to revive Ukraine economy and fight corruption. Ukrainians elected a pro-Russia president again which even the West acknowledged it is a fair election.

Four years later in 2014, another election and pro-Russia candidate won again but the West decried the election is rigged. So we have Maidan revolution. This time, Putin decided to intervene.

Do you know how many years it takes for DPP to change the public opinion of Taiwanese from pro-unification to pro-independent? Less than 10 years. As we know Hong Kongers were never interested in politics but it took them just 17 years to incite the Umbrella Revolution and 22 years for a full blown color revolution.

I am not saying Putin is right or good. I am saying the game is rigged. You can't win. If one color revolution could not change Ukraine, then the West would have a second one until Ukraine became strongly pro-West and anti-Russia.

China showing the world how its done:

Jai Hinds, specifically, should break out the crayons and take note.

亚洲特快：俄军在乌克兰表现究竟如何？​

<Sorry this video is in Chinese>

The author in this video, Xi Yazhou (席亚洲), is way better than most of the western commentators on this subject so far. If he sees it that way, one can extrapolate how PLA would see it.

FairAndUnbiased said:

That might be too greedy. They'll fight to the death to avoid that which Russia could oblige but I sense Russia would be OK with a little less in exchange for calming the situation down and forcing them to settle so Russia sustains minimum damage. Russia is likely to conquer it anyways but trade it back if sanctions cancellation are on the table.

That way Russia only gains in the aftermath.

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Yup, a case of "漫天要价落地还钱“, the final partition will depends on how easy/difficult to rule local population, percentage of pro-Russia/anti-Russia etc... Still most of heavy industry and entire coast line to the east is quite good for Russia