Ukrainian War Developments

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enroger

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Not really no. I was estimating Mariupol would be taken and the big pocket linking Crimea front and Kharkiv front be linked and Kharkiv defenders be critically weakened. I would say we haven't seen any of these yet.

However, there's still no sign of any serious international intervention yet (besides you know shipping MANPADS and ATGM across the Polish border), what with the Mig deal now off. Maybe the nuclear stick was more effective than what I was estimating.

The Mig deal was never practical in the first place, I was kinda looking forward to see they try
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Not really no. I was estimating Mariupol would be taken and the big pocket linking Crimea front and Kharkiv front be linked and Kharkiv defenders be critically weakened. I would say we haven't seen any of these yet.

However, there's still no sign of any serious international intervention yet (besides you know shipping MANPADS and ATGM across the Polish border), what with the Mig deal now off. Maybe the nuclear stick was more effective than what I was estimating.
If true, thats lesson for China, quickly ramping up nuke count is the most asymettric bang for buck (literally) at this point, and might be the deciding difference in a TW scenario
 

sequ

Major
Registered Member
Very interesting insight in Russian military's inability to have secure communication:


Intelligence acquired since the beginning of the Russian military operation over Ukraine has shown an immense lack of logistic support, making this war one of the most unique in 2022 when it comes to surveillance.

For the 1st time in a modern conflict, the regular forces of Russia are communicating without digital mode, making them fully audible by everyone.

A story documented by Nicholas Laidlaw (
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) might explain that the cause would be bad logisitic preparation. A story being confirmed not only by PoW testimony but also by material captured by the Ukrainian army after clashes with the Russian army, such as in this tweet, showing a civilian Baofeng which was used by the Russian infantry.

More and more evidence is emerging that the Russian forces rely on civilian radios and mobile phones for their communications. Our source in one invading unit confirms this.

This photograph is said to show a civilian radio captured by Ukrainians.

Following the lack of security on their communications, we have been closely cooperating with radio amateurs & translators, across the globe, to document and gather intelligence. Russian units on ground were then tracked, such as Buran-30, which we can hear planning an artillery attack on a civilian location.

We can also hear jammers trying to interrupt Russian communications and disrupt their coordination capabilities.

Using publicly available web radio receiver (webSDR), callsigns of Russian military units and roles were discovered. Reports of losses, injuries, ... everything can be heard. Even them swearing at their own crew, such as in this recording.

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During a fight West of Kiev, we learned that there was an FOB in Nalivaykovka - to which Yug95 was sent to bring the 200 (KIA) and 300 (Injured).

We also heard them cry during a fight near Kharkhiv, as heard in this recording. But also had fuel issues, trouble coordinating because lack of maps, ... While also requesting air support or talking about Iskander strikes.

Every conversations have displayed a disturbing lack of coordination between units, sometimes even firing at each other. But also, in addition to the simple fact that they are equipped with analogic radios, a lack of logisitical support.

Because unsecured communications, the frequencies have been constantly jammed by civilians, sometimes in the middle of fights, making the ground infantry unable to operate properly and having to withdraw.

An entire community created itself around those communications, currently scanning and recording anything of interest, including ShadowBreak. Creating hours of intense Russian army chatter recordings, each demonstrating an army unprepared for such situation.

We will soon make as much raw recordings as possible freely available for journalists and translators, with the hope of shining lights on a historical situation where a regular army is being tracked by thousand of individuals.
 
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drowingfish

Junior Member
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given the current force disposition and Russia's penchant for daring maneuvers, I wonder if they will try something like what I described in the picture here. an assault across the Dnieper, which I believe is not frozen over judging from the video of russian chopper getting shot down.

The widest part of the Dnieper is about 15km, well within the range of russian amphibious vehicles and assault boats. a company-size heliborne assault to seize a beach head and a quick transit across the river would surely catch the ukrainians off guard. the benefit of this is bigger than the risks, as it not only speeds up russian advance on the east bank, but also opens up that sector of the Dnieper for transportation by boats once both banks are secured, thereby reducing the traffic jam currently formed north of Kiev. Ukrainian presence along the river bank is likely not heavy as they are either up front in contact with the russians or in kiev.
 
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