Ukrainian War Developments

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Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
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Kich said:
Interesting podcast about the War [From a Russian expert in the US who is from Ukraine. He is not biased]
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Quick summary
  • Russia wanted to quick and dirty war (Crimea 2.0). Secure the south while avoiding cities and create a land bridge to Crimea while rushing to Kyiv to cause the govt. to collapse.
  • While doing that also push a small units forward to cause the Ukrainian military to collapse.
  • A reason why Russian propaganda machine is MIA is because this war is they wanted to keep this war from their public. This explains why they never use the term "invasion" or "war" and are instead calling this "special operation." This war was very unpopular in Russia
They essentially underestimated Ukrainian resolve and assumed the west won't overreact. But they miscalculated.

This explains why we're not seeing RuAF or the Russian artillery and why we are seeing this mess of the Russian small groups going into cities and suburbs and driving around without purpose AND getting picked off.

Going forward, I think the Russian will retool and reassembly and re-adjust. I think they will bring the big guns because at this point Putin essentially bluffed charged to scare his opponent--Ukraine--but instead got punched in the face. The west are bringing the Russian economy to its knees and the country is getting isolated from Europe. He essentially has nothing else to lose.

This war is about to get a lot worse with so many civilians and troop casualties unfortunately.
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If this is true then Putin relied too much or was relying on stupid, arrogant, too assumptive "intelligence" to the point that his intelligence unit may have been sabotaged. Meaning that he was fed a set of bad intelligence in order for Putin to commit such overly optimistic operation when the real purpose was to bait Russian military into committing a less than ready force;weakened the Russian mythical military might, which could lead to Russian instability due to a perception of military incompetence or duplicity. I mean, isn't it telling that Pres.Biden was so confident that Russia was set on invading Ukraine despite Russian denials.

If what this expert is suggesting is close to the truth then am inclined to believe that Putin was prepared to receive the wrath of sanctions - let's be real, the U.S. and western public would have demanded anything less than what has been inflicted to Russia right now - in exchange for achieving all the mission objectives listed on the article. If the said mission goals were have been accomplished in the manner expected then the world would have been frankly reeling with shock, awe, dread, fear, and grudging respect to the efficiency and lightning quick operation with minimal cost to Russian military forces.

Unfortunately, this is not what's happening on the ground. And the shaping of perception both home and abroad are increasingly becoming confident that Russian military ain't s...t. Which has given some ammunition to the domestic critics of Putin’s leadership in Russia. Putin can handle the international condemnation but if his popularity suffers because of the "bad overly optimistic intelligence" he relied upon then it's not improbable where he might have to start looking over his shoulders if he's going to get the boot from within his own closest people.

Betrayal often comes from those closest to you. Ask Jesus Christ, Caesar, Ferdinand Marcos etc..and if my suspicions is true then the U.S. intelligence operations is something else that China better be watching their backs to see if they have their own double agents working for the U.S.
 
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tokenanalyst

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Many predicted Nato expansion would lead to war. Those warnings were ignored​


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Russia’s military offensive against Ukraine is an
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that will make already worrisome tensions between Nato and Moscow even more dangerous. The west’s new cold war with Russia has turned hot. Vladimir Putin bears primary responsibility for this latest development, but Nato’s arrogant, tone‐deaf policy toward Russia over the past quarter‐century deserves a large share as well. Analysts committed to a US foreign policy of realism and restraint have warned for more than a quarter‐century that continuing to expand the most powerful military alliance in history toward another major power would not end well. The war in Ukraine provides definitive confirmation that it did not.

“It would be extraordinarily difficult to expand Nato eastward without that action’s being viewed by
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as unfriendly. Even the most modest schemes would bring the alliance to the borders of the old Soviet Union. Some of the more ambitious versions would have the alliance virtually surround the Russian Federation itself.” I wrote those words in 1994, in my book
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, at a time when expansion proposals merely constituted occasional speculation in foreign policy seminars in New York and Washington. I added that expansion “would constitute a needless provocation of Russia”

George Kennan, the intellectual father of America’s containment policy during the cold war,
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in a May 1998 New York Times interview about what the Senate’s ratification of Nato’s first round of expansion would set in motion. “I think it is the beginning of a new cold war,” Kennan stated. ”I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else.”

Moscow’s patience with Nato’s ever more intrusive behavior was wearing thin. The last reasonably friendly warning from Russia that the alliance needed to back off came in March 2007, when Putin addressed the
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. “Nato has put its frontline forces on our borders,” Putin complained. Nato expansion “represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?”
 
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reservior dogs

Junior Member
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Temstar said:
I got a source saying 82nd Airborne Division readiness has been reduced from defcon 2 (ready for war in 6 hours) to defcon 3. If one were to guess:
  • Putin waving the nuclear stick
  • pace of operation in Ukraine has increased, they may judge that they not be able to make a difference any more at this rate
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When the EU offered Ukraine NATO membership, I knew they had seen the light. This means they saw a certain Ukraine defeat and also saw that entire Ukraine will fall to the Russians. If there is any chance that some part of Ukraine will survive intact, they would not offer NATO membership.
 
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anzha

Senior Member
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reservior dogs said:
When the EU offered Ukraine NATO membership,
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The EU cannot offer NATO membership. The EU is - at this point - an economic and political block. NATO is a defensive alliance, or military alliance. They have overlapping memberships, but not all members of NATO are part of the EU and vice versa. EU membership does not immediately grant NATO membership.

This confusion keeps coming up here and I don't know why.
 
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