Ukrainian War Developments

anzha said:

The Russian drone salesman seems to be missing though.

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Busy negotiating contracts with Russia at the moment, I reckon.

foxmulder said:

But all these are tactical.

Strategically speaking, Ukraine is big gain for Russia and from this point on I think Putin will annex the whole thing to Russia.

USA played perfectly too. Finally they isolated Russia completely. I mean even Iran and North Korea face much less sanctions At least their football teams can participate international events.

Anyhow, winners will be USA and China. Losers will be Ukraine and EU. Russia will be a loser, too if this goes more than couple months. However less than a month, Russia wins a whole country.

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Make no mistake, Russia is the main loser. It's basically a supersized North Korea from now on.
Russia have no need for new land being by far the largest country in the world and absorbing 40 million very unhappy new citizens at gunpoint will only invite extreme instability internally.
And at their borders 600+ million very hostile neighbours rearming themselves with the biggest stick around currently as an ally.

james smith esq said:

I still stand by my prediction of an unconditional Russian surrender, on Wednesday!

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Now that's ballsy!

ArmchairAnalyst said:

Make no mistake, Russia is the main loser. It's basically a supersized North Korea from now on.
Russia have no need for new land being by far the largest country in the world and absorbing 40 million very unhappy new citizens at gunpoint will only invite extreme instability internally.
And at their borders 600+ million very hostile neighbours rearming themselves with the biggest stick around currently as an ally.

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I'm against Putin starting this war as well, but saying Russia did this for land grab is just disingenuous

Gentlemen I bring ill news from the front. It seems after dissecting the bodies of the VDV killed at Antonov Airport (like, the four of them) the Ukrainian have now learnt the resurrection spell.

This can only worsen the military situation for the Russians I imagine, Moscow is in danger.

anzha said:

You get a Darwin Award! And you get a Darwin Award! And you get a Darwin Award! EVYERBODY GETS A DARWIN AWARD!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498420686980894731

More seriously, I hope that was the first incident from a different angle...

looks like it. but...

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Yeah, Im not seeing how that could possibly end well for the average Ukrainian

Temstar said:

the Ukrainian have now learnt the resurrection spell.

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The dark and ancient art of Juche Necromancy

Kich said:

Interesting podcast about the War [From a Russian expert in the US who is from Ukraine. He is not biased]

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Quick summary

• Russia wanted to quick and dirty war (Crimea 2.0). Secure the south while avoiding cities and create a land bridge to Crimea while rushing to Kyiv to cause the govt. to collapse.
• While doing that also push a small units forward to cause the Ukrainian military to collapse.
• A reason why Russian propaganda machine is MIA is because this war is they wanted to keep this war from their public. This explains why they never use the term "invasion" or "war" and are instead calling this "special operation." This war was very unpopular in Russia

They essentially underestimated Ukrainian resolve and assumed the west won't overreact. But they miscalculated.

This explains why we're not seeing RuAF or the Russian artillery and why we are seeing this mess of the Russian small groups going into cities and suburbs and driving around without purpose AND getting picked off.

Going forward, I think the Russian will retool and reassembly and re-adjust. I think they will bring the big guns because at this point Putin essentially bluffed charged to scare his opponent--Ukraine--but instead got punched in the face. The west are bringing the Russian economy to its knees and the country is getting isolated from Europe. He essentially has nothing else to lose.

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That is a piss poor take from someone who clearly has a reason to be biased.

The Russian objective with this conflict was to drag the west into a nuclear standoff just like would happen in Soviet times. If they just suddenly went in and took Donbass they'd be condemned, sanctioned more and everyone would move on just like what happened with Crimea. By making this a crisis before they even invaded with intelligence leaks, recognition of the Donbass republics and manipulation of the European gas market they've forced the Anglos to pay attention to the Ukrainian problem and not brush it down the road for the next few years.

Note that all western leaders are largely uncomfortable about addressing this, other than to say "stop talking about nukes". They still want to play the game of pin the sanction tail on the Russian donkey, because that's all they're good at.

Biden is nowhere to be seen, while Putin has been giving daily updates. At some point they are going to have to tell the people they are supposed to represent that they're potentially in a nuclear crisis. I expect he's busy practicing his address to the nation about the unfolding crisis his European partners have got him into. Kennedy set a pretty high bar.

They know the Anglos are losing control of their empire and and have decided to strike now.

escobar said:

I have lot of doubts about RU nuke performance...

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siegecrossbow said:

I don't have doubts about the warhead performance but definitely have doubts about the delivery vehicles. Didn't some U.S. Minutemen fail to launch recently? Those things are literal Cold War relicts.

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Russia tests their delivery vehicles frequently. Not as often as China and North Korea but definitely more than UK and FR.