Putin has lost in some aspects, no matter how this war might end.
you raise good points. but here is alternative view.
1. He might conquer Ukraine with heavy losses but he has lost the Ukrainians forever(their hearts)
I dont see heavy losses except for few strikes on conscripts with old equipment or lack of logistics equipment breakdown. they rescued pilot of Su-25. and there is no evidence Ka-52 pilots got captured.
every life is important but those making decisions will take into account this performance.
2. After his criminal attack NATO is more united then ever before. More nations want to join because they don't want to get annexed by Putin who suddenly claims the right to decide which nations have a right to exist and which not
It is understood that smaller countries want to get united to share the cost. As Asia consume more things will get expensive for lower population and older age structure of Europe. Vietnam alone 100M people while Bangladesh 180m.
3. Russian economic collapse due to sanctions
German auto production was upto 600K a month in 2018 . now it is down to 250K a month even that need much more imports to make it happen. will you call this collapse? i am sure there will be some other parameters that Germany producing more but this only visible thing that i can observe. similar thing hasnt happened in visible production parameters of Russia rather they increase there importance to rest of the world. Russia is competing with China in Gold production.
4. He destroyed the trust between Russia and Germany built up by generations after the war. It will take decades to restore this trust
The earliest UN resolution in 2011 against Syria was drafted by Germany not acknowledging the role of Turkey. This after Libya. so things were already moving downhill. Ukraine never graduated from IMF or was given any prospect of EU membership. so there is little confidence that Germanic system can bring prosperity and infrastructure that will be closer to modern Asian cities.