Ukrainian War Developments

Overbom said:

I think Russia miscalculated and pulled the trigger way too early.

IMO it should have done so a few years later when the US-China strategic rivalry would have reached the peak. That would be the best opportunity for Russia to get concessions from the West.

Now, the US is supposedly focusing on China, but it is not in such a degree that the US is fighting tooth and nail with China. It is still relatively comfortable from a strategic point of view.

IMO maybe 2024 or 2026 would be better for Russia

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Will have to disagree. If Russia was going to make demands then now is the best time. Waiting a couple or few more years only reduces Russia leverage over NATO/US.

Inflation is at a record high and the US federal reserve has been lying about transitory inflation and when they plan hike interest rates alongside tapering. Goal Post moved from 2024 to 2023 to 2022.

Russia will have no leverage beside saber rattling if they did it during a “peak in rivalry” with China/US. By that time the EU/US will likely have inflation tamed to a degree and have a buffer zone with interest rates as a cushion

The best opportunity for Russia to get concessions is now and not later. Russia is holding the West by their nutsack over the economy, which forces the West to listen to Russia.

Maikeru said:

That is good for China though. Many commentators in US are now saying the supposed 'pivot' to Asia has not really happened and that Ukraine is a distraction from this.

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Not just any commentators.

We have Elbridge Colby (primary author of the 2018 US Government National Defence Strategy) publicly saying last week that the Pivot to Asia is still a failure.

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Most of this thread looks like China vs US. Weird. I don't see that in the thread topic. I don't see China having any troops involved either. Neither does Vietnam. hmm.

US ordering more troops to Romania and Poland (not many, tbh), but that is exactly opposite of what Putin asked.


Poland is sending more MANPADS to Ukraine (drive by source):


Russian helicopter units supposedly moved to the Ukrainian border (another drive by):


Putin and Boris Johnson had a chat:


I am hearing the US is rebuffing whatever came from Russia with a demand Russia evac Crimea and the frozen conflict zones in the xUSSR prior to any arms control. I'll post when I have a decent source.

Bellum_Romanum said:

What's Peter Zeihans claim to fame anyway? I am familiar with George Friedman due to his work at STRATFOR.

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He was doing similar stuff as George Friedman. He fancy himself some sort of strategic forecaster. You can google him up and see the predictions he made in the past. The issue was, they don't actually take the trouble of coming true.

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The United States warned Chinese firms on Thursday they would face consequences if they sought to evade any export controls imposed on Moscow in the event of Russia invading Ukraine.

U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price made the remark after China's Foreign Ministry said China and Russia had coordinated their positions on Ukraine during a meeting between their foreign ministers in Beijing on Thursday.

"We have an array of tools that we can deploy if we see foreign companies, including those in China, doing their best to backfill U.S. export control actions, to evade them, to get around them," Price told a regular news briefing.


IMHO, the neocon/neolib US needs to be taught a very serious lesson about the sovereignty of other nations.

Laviduce said:

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The United States warned Chinese firms on Thursday they would face consequences if they sought to evade any export controls imposed on Moscow in the event of Russia invading Ukraine.

U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price made the remark after China's Foreign Ministry said China and Russia had coordinated their positions on Ukraine during a meeting between their foreign ministers in Beijing on Thursday.

"We have an array of tools that we can deploy if we see foreign companies, including those in China, doing their best to backfill U.S. export control actions, to evade them, to get around them," Price told a regular news briefing.


IMHO, the neocon/neolib US needs to be taught a very serious lesson about the sovereignty of other nations.

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They also need to be taught the kindergarten level basics that you cannot use threats of violence to intimidate someone who you literally just fought 5 minutes ago and lost against.

You cannot threaten China with sanctions and trade wars after you have already tried both and failed.

It is inevitable China will get dragged into the conflict, one way or the other just by the mere fact that the gringos can't shut the fuck up.

These people are even more lazy with their excuse than the Bush administration back in 2003 and Iraq's WMD

Russian media analysis of the crisis:


Janes has a ton of links. I'll just link a couple. Russians moved more units to Crimea:


Jane's analysis of the units and the build up:


The Russian buildup is at sea as well as ashore:

sheogorath said:

It is inevitable China will get dragged into the conflict, one way or the other just by the mere fact that the gringos can't shut the fuck up.

These people are even more lazy with their excuse than the Bush administration back in 2003 and Iraq's WMD

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1489336004637044746

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Couldn't even produce a vial of detergent?