What's Peter Zeihans claim to fame anyway? I am familiar with George Friedman due to his work at STRATFOR.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Russia never said they were going to invade Ukraine. They said they would reply with "military-technical" measures to NATO expansion. They already moved S-400 SAM systems to Belarus and moved more Iskander-M systems close to the border for example. Those are "military-technical" measures.
Russia already said they would attack the "centers of decision" in case of an attack on Russia. They would not just attack Ukraine in case the US was directly involved in organizing or planning such an attack. Several years back, like a decade ago, they even claimed they reserved the right to use nuclear weapons in case of an attack on Russian soil. Regardless of the attack being nuclear or not.
If the U.S. feel like we are losing Western Europe, someone in the Oval Office might gamble that a limited conflict will keep the Europeans in line and keep the Nordstream II from going operational. If a small U.S. unit gets killed in the process, that is the price to pay for keeping the European alliance intact. If Russia attacks U.S. troops in Western Europe, so much the better. The relationship between Europe and Russia goes into a deep freeze, not the worst thing for the U.S. The U.S. does not pay a big price in this process. It is Western Europe and Russia that pay the big cost of the conflict.
That's exactly what I said back in pages 19-20 of this thread:
Russia's deployments leave its options open but that doesn't mean it wants to launch a full-scale invasion. If that was its primary objective, it would've already pulled the trigger last year without issuing any ultimatums.
The challenges Russia is facing in Ukraine right now are not Operational or Tactical. It can win the war if it launches. The problems for Russia are at the Strategic level. A) It doesn't want to risk the European gas market. B) It's true objective has always been neutralizing NATO itself, not just which land route NATO chooses (i.e. Ukraine.) It wants to fracture NATO by creating a division within it. And the key to that is Germany. As soon as Germany decides it no longer wants to side with the US's hegemonic goals in the region, NATO is finished and Russia's Western flank is secure.
Ideally, Russia would want to fracture NATO with just ultimatums/pressure. But that hasn't worked so far. So now the question is, if Russia launches this war, what will Germany do? Will it abandon the US and keep buying Russian gas? If that happens, Russia wins and NATO is finished. On the other hand, if Germany sides with the US, then Russia hasn't really gained much in invading Ukraine and its strategic problems remain (and may actually get worse.)
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I think Russia miscalculated and pulled the trigger way too early.
IMO it should have done so a few years later when the US-China strategic rivalry would have reached the peak. That would be the best opportunity for Russia to get concessions from the West.
Now, the US is supposedly focusing on China, but it is not in such a degree that the US is fighting tooth and nail with China. It is still relatively comfortable from a strategic point of view.
IMO maybe 2024 or 2026 would be better for Russia
That is good for China though. Many commentators in US are now saying the supposed 'pivot' to Asia has not really happened and that Ukraine is a distraction from this.
Well, it's possible this is a set up for that timeframe. Russia is under no obligation to execute right now.
Good point. With troops and equipment in place and rhetoric already set up successfully, Russia could execute a quick attack or to put heavy pressure on a later date
Like a sword of Damocles. The moment Russia finds an opening in the future, it would be well positioned to exploit that.
If that's Putin's plan, then that pretty smart. I am sure that in the next 5 years there will be opportunities for Russia
It also allows space for the US to hang itself with their own rope in the SCS, complicating any response in both fronts even more.
Its funny because both sides of the aisle have droped their masks, with the Democrats going full russophobes, trying to blame Russia for their own failures while the Republicans took Obama's sinophobia and ran with it because they are even more open about their white supremacism and can't have non-whites challenging US hegemony.
Its funny because both sides of the aisle have droped their masks, with the Democrats going full russophobes, trying to blame Russia for their own failures while the Republicans took Obama's sinophobia and ran with it because they are even more open about their white supremacism and can't have non-whites challenging US hegemony.
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