Ukrainian War Developments

Phead128 said:

If China can become a quasi-ally with US to counter the Soviet Union, then it's not outside the realm of possibility that "Reverse Nixon" is also possible: that Russia can be an quasi-ally with US to counter China. I don't see how Russia, a former Superpower, can accept or tolerate to be subordinate junior partner to China, particularly an alien civilization with no shared language, culture, or even ideology like Communism (like old times). You have to have more than just "Anti-Americanism" to form the basis of a long-term alliance, the Sino-Soviet Split demonstrated this.

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Thats not entirely inaccurate. Realistically, if western containment of China were to succeed in holding back China to a certain degree in its economic development, Russia would remain in alliance with China, as China would remain the only viable bloc with Russia against American global hegemony. However, if China did in fact reach a GDP of US + EU by the 2050's, it may persuade Russia to join a western bloc, especially if it isn't able to accrue benefits from the rise of china (broadly being increases in per capita GDP and living standards at least matching china by the 2050's.) If china were to reach a GDP of US + EU by 2050's though, other options would potentially exist, such as marshall plans to uplift 1 billion people out of poverty in the Arab World and Africa to bring into a counteralliance against the west.

Either way, global hegemony never lasts and is self correcting.

Phead128 said:

Trans-Amur Baikal is former Qing Chinese territory, so China isn't interested in any Russian territory, it's interested in originally Chinese territory.

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Regardless, China isn't interested in it. What you're saying has no basis in reality.

What you seem to ignore is that so long as the US poses a threat to both Russia and China, which will be the case for the foreseeable future, then Russia and China will be eager to cooperate.

Even when Russia and China no longer feel the need to cooperate as closely, the two have no conflicting interests. Russia's core interests are in Eastern Europe, while China's core interests are along its coastal regions. In areas where the two's interests intersect, China and Russia have established organizations and frameworks to hash out any differences. We saw this pretty clearly in the recent Kazakhstan riots, where the CSTO acted swiftly and without any objections from China.

Phead128 said:

Like I said, China and Russia is an "Axis of Convenience" because of a mutual enemy (US). There is no ideological commonality, shared language/culture, or shared history as the basis of an "Alliance". We tried "anti-Americanism"-based alliance and it ended horribly.

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Phead128 said:

Like I said, China should prepare for a situation where it's overwhelmingly more powerful and richer than Russia, stoking Russian perceptions and insecurities over Siberia, and pre-empt a Western-attempt to "Reverse Nixon" strategy. China should prepared to counter it.

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Phead128 said:

Only two-digit IQ people will dismiss the possibility of "Reverse Nixon" strategy against China. Just hating US isn't enough, Sino-Soviet split demonstrated this.

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No offense, but you need a reality check, in both history and geography.

First of all, the Sino-Soviet split happened because the Soviets wanted to dictate China's actions, which China was not willing to accept. Neither did Nixon pull off some tour-de-force in turning China against the Soviet Union, as Sino-Soviet relations were abysmal long before Nixon went to China.

There are no such tensions between China and Russia today. Your imagined insecurities over Siberia is just that: imaginary. Siberia is an extremely vast and inhospitable region. The idea that it will become valuable due to climate change is mere conjecture, and belongs more in the realm of science-fiction than actual science. What's more, if you take a look at a map, China is actually separated from Siberia by vast deserts.

As for Vladivstock, it only offers access to the Sea of Japan. There is no current strategic value for China to obtain such access. On the contrary, the fact that Russia controls this access creates a welcome buffer zone between China, Japan, and South Korea.

9dashline said:

Just read this on r/sino

So US and NATO spent over 20 years expanding NATO’s border until its right up against Russia. The Russians have given them a written demand and the US have responded with a secret response! What could be in their response that warrant this much mystery? What kind of bargain is America going to ask Russia that is worth over 20 years of effort? I think they’re gonna ask Russia to join them against China. I think they’re gonna dangle the prospect of being let back in the G7, removal of sanctions, access to EU markets and the US, and pushing back NATO’s border back to the 1997 border, certification of the Nordstream pipeline for cooperation against China. I’m taking bets

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they can't. it would break NATO. Their entire identity is wrapped up in hating Russia. Any reconciliation with Russia would be seen as a betrayal and they would quit NATO, which would be a massive diplomatic humiliation.

For Russia, it isn't worth either. They'll lose pressure on their west to gain an existential pressure to their entire eastern and southern flank. They also know that once a backstabber always a backstabber.

james smith esq said:

Is is really that difficult to see that Putin has a Napoleonic complex? And that he’s really nothing but a Mafia-boss styled thug. Dude takes “Macho Man” shirtless pics; c’mon man!!!???

There’s a difference between someone that’s potentially politically useful and someone that’s admirable. Just because Putin’s charades might benefit China doesn’t mean that he’s either admirable or particularly smart.
If Putin were some geo-political genius, he’d have re-oriented Russian political, military, and economic policies away from Europe and towards China and Iran long ago. Instead, he continues selling weapons to one of China’s principal regional antagonists and groveling for attention from the west.

Putin might be useful, he is not admirable!

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Russia selling weapons to India is a massively good thing.

1. they sell their highest cost weapons to India and charge them huge premiums for maintenance.

2. Russian weapons like Mig-21 and Su-30 break India's supply lines since they aren't compatible with western systems (used in Indian Mirages, Jaguars and Rafales) and thus India must maintain at least 2 supply chains.

3. India has hesitancy in going 100% for the west since they don't want to lose half their arsenal

If Russia stopped selling weapons to India it would be a disaster to China.

1. India now has more money freed up for economic development and social stability instead of having to watch out for rebels

2. India consolidates around western supply chains and all their munitions are live instead of being split between 2 supply chains

3. India politically will 100% gravitate to the west

why would you want Russia to sell even 1 cent less to India?

Phead128 said:

Agreed. Russia and China is an "Axis of Convenience" given the mutual enemies (read: US/West), there is no ideological connection (unlike the Sino-Soviet Alliance), there is no common shared culture/heritage (unlike Russo-Belarus Union), and no common shared language or history (unlike CSTO Alliance).

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Chinese and Russians share fundamentally same values. See World Values Survey.

Chinese and Russians both are fundamentally secular, pragmatic countries.



than

Russia and the West shared views: White Supremacy

They hate each other, but they respect each other. They do not allow other races to challenge White Supremacy

FangYuan said:

Russia and the West shared views: White Supremacy

They hate each other, but they respect each other. They do Not Allow Other Races to Challenge White Supremacy

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I think "white supremacy" is a pretty loaded concept here, especially when the West don't see Slavic people as their equals from day 1 (particularly Eastern Slavs like majority of Russians). It really doesn't matter what Russians think, as Yeltsin have demonstrated. And I think Russians are pragmatic enough today to see through all of this.

Just saying, your definition of "white" may be different from others.

FangYuan said:

Russia and the West shared views: White Supremacy

They hate each other, but they respect each other. They do not allow other races to challenge White Supremacy

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But west sees Russians as the Asiatic Horde, not as fellow whites.

GodRektsNoobs said:

I think "white supremacy" is a pretty loaded concept here, especially when the West don't see Slavic people as their equals from day 1 (particularly Eastern Slavs like majority of Russians). It really doesn't matter what Russians think, as Yeltsin have demonstrated. And I think Russians are pragmatic enough today to see through all of this.

Just saying, your definition of "white" may be different from others.

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"West vs Russia rivalry is a rivalry among family members. Cousins fighting each other. China is not part of the white Christian family.

In the racial hierarchy of the white Christians, it goes like this:

1.Anglo-Saxons
2.Western European and Scandinavia
3.Southern European
4.Eastern European and Russia"