Ukrainian War Developments

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foxmulder

Junior Member
Agreed. Russia and China is an "Axis of Convenience" given the mutual enemies (read: US/West), there is no ideological connection (unlike the Sino-Soviet Alliance), there is no common shared culture/heritage (unlike Russo-Belarus Union), and no common shared language or history (unlike CSTO Alliance). Basically, it's "Anti-Americanism" that is the binding glue, but history has proven that a common enemy (read: US) was not sufficient to prevent the rupturing of ties (see Sino-Soviet Split).

I am willing to bet that post-Putin successor would re-oriented to the West if China became too powerful. Russia seeks the prestige of an independent Great Power and does not want to be a subordinate vassal of China. Russian are a Former Superpower and cannot tolerate playing junior subordinate to China, which is an alien civilization. If Russia can leverage itself to do a "Reverse Nixon" and form a counter-weight with West against China in the future, China should prepare for that eventuality and potential Sino-Soviet Split 2.0.

Well, you don't know that. All EU is basically vassal of US... so Russia might be the "vassal" of China as you put it. If I were a Russian I prefer China as an ally rather than West. West only brought war to Russia.
 

foxmulder

Junior Member
If China can become a quasi-ally with US to counter the Soviet Union, then it's not outside the realm of possibility that "Reverse Nixon" is also possible: that Russia can be an quasi-ally with US to counter China. I don't see how Russia, a former Superpower, can accept or tolerate to be subordinate junior partner to China, particularly an alien civilization with no shared language, culture, or even ideology like Communism (like old times). You have to have more than just "Anti-Americanism" to form the basis of a long-term alliance, the Sino-Soviet Split demonstrated this.

True but, it can work other way around... Interest might dictate selling your products to largest market rather then follow orders of smaller market owner ;)
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
If China can become a quasi-ally with US to counter the Soviet Union, then it's not outside the realm of possibility that "Reverse Nixon" is also possible: that Russia can be an quasi-ally with US to counter China. I don't see how Russia, a former Superpower, can accept or tolerate to be subordinate junior partner to China, particularly an alien civilization with no shared language, culture, or even ideology like Communism (like old times). You have to have more than just "Anti-Americanism" to form the basis of a long-term alliance, the Sino-Soviet Split demonstrated this.
There is a big difference between China/Soviet versus China/Russia. Soviet Union was an existential threat to China. Millions of Soviet army amassed at the border, ready to pounce. China is not and will not be an existential threat to Russia. In fact, if the Soviets did not threaten China and if they allow China to still be an alliance without subordinating China, the Cold War would have turned out differently.

In the future, if Russia turns to the West and against China, China would be much more of a threat against Russia than the West ever was. They share a border and China has a much stronger army than Western Europe ever did. For this reason alone, a post Putin Russia will not be against China at the least. Even if they are subordinate to China, China will not seek the break up of Russia, unlike the U.S. When your power is limited, you pick the least bad option.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
If China can become a quasi-ally with US to counter the Soviet Union, then it's not outside the realm of possibility that "Reverse Nixon" is also possible: that Russia can be an quasi-ally with US to counter China. I don't see how Russia, a former Superpower, can accept or tolerate to be subordinate junior partner to China, particularly an alien civilization with no shared language, culture, or even ideology like Communism (like old times). You have to have more than just "Anti-Americanism" to form the basis of a long-term alliance, the Sino-Soviet Split demonstrated this.
This is a very shallow and erroneous take. China has not and will not make Russia a "subordinate junior partner", that's an American speciality. Russia has a "choice" (it's not really a choice) of being the right hand and trusted confidant of the rising superpower or one more concubine in the fading superpower's harem. Except the latter isn't even offer; Russia tried to go that route in the '90s and Putin was the result.

Russia also shares no language, culture, or ideology with the West.

But your biggest mistake is to sorely underestimate how binding anti-Americanism is. Neither Russia nor China will have the spheres of influence that they are due so long as the post WWII order endures. For as long as America exists as a unified entity, Russia and China's relationship is ironclad.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
If China can become a quasi-ally with US to counter the Soviet Union, then it's not outside the realm of possibility that "Reverse Nixon" is also possible: that Russia can be an quasi-ally with US to counter China. I don't see how Russia, a former Superpower, can accept or tolerate to be subordinate junior partner to China, particularly an alien civilization with no shared language, culture, or even ideology like Communism (like old times). You have to have more than just "Anti-Americanism" to form the basis of a long-term alliance, the Sino-Soviet Split demonstrated this.
I disagree. Even if Russia changes president and wants to build better ties with the West, China is still an important partner. Russia will want to take advantage of both. Not surrender to either side. The West will always try to bend Russia to its will. The West have been doing this for the last 100 years, they will continue to do so.

China OTOH never treated Russia like a junior partner. China didn't demand Russia to become Communist again. China didn't try to pull Russia's Eastern neighbours into an alliance to confront Russia. The SCO also includes Russia, and Russia can also keep the CSTO. There are no sides to choose for Central Asian nations. There is no hostile competition to recruit allies in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. No matter how alien China is to Russia, China was historically not an existential threat. All the bloodiest wars in modern Russian history were inflicted by the West and Japan.

Boris Yeltsin, the most pro-West Russian leader in modern history was still quite friendly to China. Although Gorbachev started to warm to China. When Yeltsin took over, he still continued the warming relationship to China. Russia and China had their problems in the past, but both have learned their lessons. Russia learned to not conduct imperialism on China. And China learned that excessive Maoism is not good for foreign policy.

Just like how the Sino-Soviet split happened. It wasn't ideology or culture that defined China - Russian relations. It was mutual trust. China and Russia learned it the hard way that undermining your closest neighbours for the benefit of outside powers is a bad idea. Both were played by the West against each other, and both got burned by the West. Now, that both had awakened to the manipulations of the West, there is no going back. Mutual trust between Russia and China has never been higher in both of their histories.

Russia had fully embraced the West before, during Yeltsin's reign. The next thing the West did was to vacuum out the economy of Russia, move NATO eastwards, and encouraged the further disintegration of the Russian state. Russia may want to get closer to the West in the future, it is their sovereign right to do so. But it won't do so at the expense of its relations to China. Russia will never trust the West like Yeltsin ever again.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
When you have advice or mindset that pervades in the America intelligentsia you have the outcome that's saddling the U.S. regime right now. It's like hey all the problem in Ukraine is due to Russia, Russia, Russia, and then Putin, Putin and nothing else. When you explicitly expressed that "under no circumstances where Ukraine mustn't get invited to join NATO" and still expect Russia to accede to some kind of "creative" diplomacy is plain NUTS.




Then you have CNN (which frankly works for the Biden administration regardless of their denial) is keen to push the idea that the so-called state media pro-Putin agenda isn't the sentiment or widespread of how the Russians think of the Ukraine issue, the NATO expansion, and the west treatment of Russia. Clearly suggesting that once Putin is gone all this issue will go away and fade like a dancing drunk Yeltsin. Objectivity and trying to place their shoes on Russian point of view can't be entertained because that would actually be doing a journalists job for once. CNN only serves the American interests and nothing else.

@Bellum_Romanum Bro Fareed Zakaria is a perfect neo liberal snake oil salesman, he is a minority , a good speaker, a muslim , part of the so called intelligentsia and therefore their ideal propagandist. Early on I'm a fan BUT his style changes and become a conformist, I stop listening to him cause he lie and can't accept criticism as success clouded his judgment.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Don't mix up the propaganda with the real intentions.

The ruling class has access to good and objective information, they had same plan that they actually communicate indirectly, and based on these they forming the view of the subordinate masses.


They know that Putin represent a soft west approach ,and all events/movements from Russia reflecting the interest of the country not the decision of a single man, but they push the narrative about "dictaroship" to delegitimize all moves of Russia.

the first rule of war is to dehumanize the enemy, otherwise your soldiers will loose they will to kill them.
 

Janiz

Senior Member
So, this thread is clearly gone wildly off rails here and very little discussion is taking place of the Ukrainian situation as it is. I would strongly suggest a course correction. A little less thumping and bashing and more actual data and news.
Wrong thread - here people discuss why 'West' is disgusting and why Russia has right to do whatever they want (not on their soil).

Maybe let's talk about dams on Dnieper river and it's strategic value. Anyone?
 
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