Ukrainian War Developments

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semiconprof

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One of the nickname for Moscow is "the Third Rome". Russia is a continuation of the Byzantium empire, spiritually, culturally and religiously. It's a nation/culture that's neither here nor there. It's Christian European but not exactly. The cultural and religion similarities seem to make the West the natural ally. In practice, the West is as much an enemy as anyone else if not its greatest threat. It's very much the same dynamic played out between the West and Byzantium. Ukraine should have been left alone to serve as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO but it's too late for that now.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Valid points regarding the various ethnic minorities in Russia, and Russia is indeed an Eurasian country due to it's sheer size

But 70% of its population lives in the European part of Russia, including Moscow, St. Perterburg, Nizhny, Novgorod, Kazan, etc... And these people dominate the rest of the country.
The origins of Russia as a nation is also in Europe beginning with the first Slavic State. Russian language belongs to the Slavic group of
European languages. Russian Orthodox Christianity, culture, architecture, genetics, art, etc.. are all European in nature.

China was friends with Russia until it was not, and then become friends again, and mostly in the last 20 years. Things can change, especially as Central Asia becomes a battleground for influence. Russia and China are friends now, but the root of jealousy and resent always start when one party becomes much stronger than the other. Russia has a relatively small population and even smaller economy vis-a-vie china. Its economy is undiversified and technology rapidly surpassed by China. China may treat Russia as an equal now, but that may not be true in the future.
70% of Russians live in the European side of Russia. Not all of them are White Christian Russians. There are plenty of working migrants from the less prosperous parts of Russia. Don't oversimplify Russia.

If Russia was supposedly so close to Christian Europe. Why then did Christian Europe treat it so horrifically? The Russians have good memory. They remembered the Napoleonic Wars, the Crimean War, WW1, Russian Civil War, WW2, Cold War, bombardment of Yugoslavia, etc. All done by Christian Western civilisations. Even when Russia was the Russian Empire.

Russians especially remembered how lowly they were regarded by the Germans and their European friends in WW2. The Siege of Leningrad was one of those nasty highlights. The Chinese didn't do that. It was Christian Europeans who did that.

I see Russia and China working very well in Central Asia. Russia takes care of the security, China brings in the economic development. Nothing like the outright zero-sum aggression that the West is inflicting onto Russian influence in Eastern Europe, Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and the Balkans. Hell, the West still has dreams of color revolutions in Russia, and breaking Russia up.

You say that China and Russia are on and off friends. And they only got closer these last 20 years. You speculate that they'll be friends only for today, and then become enemies tomorrow. Why? Jealousy? Its a lousy argument. In the last 20 years, every major Sino - Russo friction points from territorial disputes, to commercial disputes has been discussed and settled. Try comparing that to how the Christian West treated Russia during these last 20 years. Howabout the last 100 years? Russians are not morons. You're gonna need much more than European ethnicity, and Christianity to gain their trust.
 
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Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
When you have advice or mindset that pervades in the America intelligentsia you have the outcome that's saddling the U.S. regime right now. It's like hey all the problem in Ukraine is due to Russia, Russia, Russia, and then Putin, Putin and nothing else. When you explicitly expressed that "under no circumstances where Ukraine mustn't get invited to join NATO" and still expect Russia to accede to some kind of "creative" diplomacy is plain NUTS.




Then you have CNN (which frankly works for the Biden administration regardless of their denial) is keen to push the idea that the so-called state media pro-Putin agenda isn't the sentiment or widespread of how the Russians think of the Ukraine issue, the NATO expansion, and the west treatment of Russia. Clearly suggesting that once Putin is gone all this issue will go away and fade like a dancing drunk Yeltsin. Objectivity and trying to place their shoes on Russian point of view can't be entertained because that would actually be doing a journalists job for once. CNN only serves the American interests and nothing else.

 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Valid points regarding the various ethnic minorities in Russia, and Russia is indeed an Eurasian country due to it's sheer size

But 70% of its population lives in the European part of Russia, including Moscow, St. Perterburg, Nizhny, Novgorod, Kazan, etc... And these people dominate the rest of the country.
The origins of Russia as a nation is also in Europe beginning with the first Slavic State. Russian language belongs to the Slavic group of
European languages. Russian Orthodox Christianity, culture, architecture, genetics, art, etc.. are all European in nature.

China was friends with Russia until it was not, and then became friends again, and mostly in the last 20 years. Relationships change, especially as Central Asia becomes a battleground for influence, and US strategic outlook pivots to China.

Russia and China are friends now, but the root of jealousy and resent always start when one friend becomes much stronger than the other. Russia has a relatively small population and even smaller economy vis-a-vie china. Its economy is undiversified and technology rapidly surpassed by China. China may treat Russia as an equal now, but that may not be true in the future. And deep down China would also still like to be friends with the United States.

The issue is that a foreign military alliance (NATO) and economic superpower (European Union) is poised to expand into Ukraine which is adjacent to the core heartland of European Russia.

Unless Russia wants its heartland to be dominated by a much larger EU economy and also potentially by military force, it has to keep Ukraine as a buffer zone. But Russia is so much smaller than the EU or USA. China represents an alternative for Russian sales of natural resources.

From the Chinese perspective, the US will remain a rival for decades because it is safely on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. Having friendly relations with Russia (against the US) is very useful for China.

So I don't see the Russia-China quasi-alliance faltering anytime soon.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
What we don't know ?

Probably the Ukrainan planning an invasion ?

The supply of weapons point to that direction .
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The West failed to take the necessary steps to bring Russia into the Western fold following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the same way it did for Japan and Germany after WWII. Instead it continued the expansion of NATO to isolate Russia. But China is now the #1 “threat”.

The relationship between Russia and China evolved considerably over the last 50 years. Right now the two are best friends for obvious geopolitical reasons. That doesn’t mean it won’t evolve again in the next 20 years+ as China becomes much stronger than Russia creating an unbalanced friendship. There are no permanent friends. And fundamentally Russia is a European country with portions of its population yearning to be part of the West.

it would be wise for the US to create divisions between Russia and China, just as it would be wise for China to create plans if such eventuality ever came true.

Agreed. Russia and China is an "Axis of Convenience" given the mutual enemies (read: US/West), there is no ideological connection (unlike the Sino-Soviet Alliance), there is no common shared culture/heritage (unlike Russo-Belarus Union), and no common shared language or history (unlike CSTO Alliance). Basically, it's "Anti-Americanism" that is the binding glue, but history has proven that a common enemy (read: US) was not sufficient to prevent the rupturing of ties (see Sino-Soviet Split).

I am willing to bet that post-Putin successor would re-oriented to the West if China became too powerful. Russia seeks the prestige of an independent Great Power and does not want to be a subordinate vassal of China. Russian are a Former Superpower and cannot tolerate playing junior subordinate to China, which is an alien civilization. If Russia can leverage itself to do a "Reverse Nixon" and form a counter-weight with West against China in the future, China should prepare for that eventuality and potential Sino-Soviet Split 2.0.
 
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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
70% of Russians live in the European side of Russia. Not all of them are White Christian Russians. There are plenty of working migrants from the less prosperous parts of Russia. Don't oversimplify Russia.

If Russia was supposedly so close to Christian Europe. Why then did Christian Europe treat it so horrifically? The Russians have good memory. They remembered the Napoleonic Wars, the Crimean War, WW1, Russian Civil War, WW2, Cold War, bombardment of Yugoslavia, etc. All done by Christian Western civilisations. Even when Russia was the Russian Empire.

Russians especially remembered how lowly they were regarded by the Germans and their European friends in WW2. The Siege of Leningrad was one of those nasty highlights. The Chinese didn't do that. It was Christian Europeans who did that.

I see Russia and China working very well in Central Asia. Russia takes care of the security, China brings in the economic development. Nothing like the outright zero-sum aggression that the West is inflicting onto Russian influence in Eastern Europe, Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and the Balkans. Hell, the West still has dreams of color revolutions in Russia, and breaking Russia up.

You say that China and Russia are on and off friends. And they only got closer these last 20 years. You speculate that they'll be friends only for today, and then become enemies tomorrow. Why? Jealousy? Its a lousy argument. In the last 20 years, every major Sino - Russo friction points from territorial disputes, to commercial disputes has been discussed and settled. Try comparing that to how the Christian West treated Russia during these last 20 years. Howabout the last 100 years? Russians are not morons. You're gonna need much more than European ethnicity, and Christianity to gain their trust.
If China can become a quasi-ally with US to counter the Soviet Union, then it's not outside the realm of possibility that "Reverse Nixon" is also possible: that Russia can be an quasi-ally with US to counter China. I don't see how Russia, a former Superpower, can accept or tolerate to be subordinate junior partner to China, particularly an alien civilization with no shared language, culture, or even ideology like Communism (like old times). You have to have more than just "Anti-Americanism" to form the basis of a long-term alliance, the Sino-Soviet Split demonstrated this.
 

Maikeru

Captain
Registered Member
If China can become a quasi-ally with US to counter the Soviet Union, then it's not outside the realm of possibility that "Reverse Nixon" is also possible: that Russia can be an quasi-ally with US to counter China. I don't see how Russia, a former Superpower, can accept or tolerate to be subordinate junior partner to China, particularly an alien civilization with no shared language, culture, or even ideology like Communism (like old times). You have to have more than just "Anti-Americanism" to form the basis of a long-term alliance, the Sino-Soviet Split demonstrated this.
No permanent allies, only permanent interests.
 
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