Ukrainian War Developments

james smith esq said:

The only thing I can think of is reports that the Russians had deliberately de-intensified operations on Friday and that they would re-intensify starting today.

Click to expand...

Not today. Yesterday. The report was in Moscow time.

I think the Russian position might be better than people giving them credits for. They have successfully pinned the Ukrainian army and limited their mobility. Russia is making some rapid advances with an overall force about 1/3 the size of Ukraine standing army is impressive and also interesting. Really shows the importance of air superiority. Russian might overestimated the support they would receive from the Russian speaking population.

Ukrainian government shoot themselves in the head, when they did not issue general mobilization order during the period Russian force was surrounding Ukraine. Now Ukraine need time (which it does not have) to organise reservists into basic units to effectively fight. Apart from sieges of Ukraine cities, we only been hearing reports of sparotic ambush of Russian convoy. Now, even with some many reservists on paper, Ukraine are drafting people who have never fired a weapon before is a bit disheartening.

tokenanalyst said:

The problem how we know that Russia make a mistake? is weird that the Russians only send ~50,000 troops to invade such a big country like Ukraine, i was expecting something of much bigger scale and way more destruction, i had the gut feeling they are creating this chaos to make the civilian population to flee and to know what they are going to fight in Ukraine then make a much larger incursion. I have the feeling that the situation for Ukraine is going become much much worse.

Click to expand...

if it's not a mistake, then it might be as you said: the first 50k pushes are exploratory, then they will bring down the hammer on the strongest points of opposition if they stay static and encircle + channelize + artillery the largest formations that attempt maneuver.

FairAndUnbiased said:

if it's not a mistake, then it might be as you said: the first 50k pushes are exploratory, then they will bring down the hammer on the strongest points of opposition if they stay static and encircle + channelize + artillery the largest formations that attempt maneuver.

Click to expand...

I can see how that’s a strategy but it just seems extremely cruel. Sending in troops in weak vehicles and not providing sufficient air support. The exploratory push should’ve been done in the first day and drones should’ve been used.

FriedButter said:

Not today. Yesterday. The report was in Moscow time.

Click to expand...

Sorry, didn’t notice that it had become tomorrow, already!

If Kharkiv falls how much disruption and morale damage are we talking?

james smith esq said:

The only thing I can think of is reports that the Russians had deliberately de-intensified operations on Friday and that they would re-intensify starting today.

Click to expand...

I think this is similar to US did in vietnam they slowly increase their military presence to avoid outside intervention the problem is this will gave Ukraine valuable time to reorganize their military and make russian offensive more difficult

Temstar said:

If Kharkiv falls how much disruption and morale damage are we talking?

Click to expand...

Probably significant damage. Kharkiv is home to a large portion of Ukraine’s defense industry like the tank factory. Apparently it’s also one of the areas with highest concentration of Azov.