Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
This may sound harsh, but the moment Putin decided to go all in on Ukraine he should’ve been prepared to, you know, stop holding back. The global media will paint him a villain regardless of what he does.

If you choose the irrational action, be decisive enough to go completely bonkers. Otherwise it will only handicap your forces.
Click to expand...
I think Putin was trying to avoid a nasty bloodbath that would create lasting animosity. He was hoping that there would be many Ukrainians who would want to get rid of the Kiev Nazis just as much as him. But alas, as the war progressed, this was a naïve hope.

Putin had seriously underestimated the extent of Russophobia and facism in Ukraine. Years of Western brainwashing, and 8 years of a civil war with ethnic Russians have certainly done its work. Anti-Russian bigotry and facism is very much rampant among the Ukrainian populace, especially in the Western side of the country. Now he has to listen to his generals. At this point, he has to finish this war with victory, no matter the cost. It is sad, but this is war. Putin has to end this 8 year proxy war in Ukraine. War was going to come to Russia anyway if Putin had left the Ukrainian Nazis to fester even further.

The same kinda thing happened to China too during the 2019 Hong Kong riots. China was hoping that saner HKgers would eventually tamper things down. But the Sinophobia in HK was much greater than anticipated. Practically half of HK was anti-China, and this gave massive momentum to riots. People are much easier to brainwash than China had hoped. Only by implementing the harsh National Security Law, China was able to get HK back in control.

The lessons of this Russian war with Ukraine must be heeded by China. A military invasion of Taiwan is gonna be more complicated than anticipated. Winning the hearts and minds of a brainwashed Taiwanese populace is not gonna be easy. They are not gonna greet the PLA as liberators, even when the PLA are actually liberating Taiwan. As this war had shown, war is messy and bloody. China should start considering using its own flavour of Color Revolution or coup d'etat to change the regime in Taiwan. Leave war as the absolute last resort.
 
K

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
bustead said:
I think Russia is keeping most units in reserves as a counter against NATO interventions.
Other than that, I think the war will be over in 1-2 weeks. Faster if Russia is willing to scale back the original goals. Toppling the Ukrainian government is difficult unless Zelennsky himself gives up.
If the goal is to secure a buffer zone, I think Russia will still need to neutralize Ukrainian forces along the East.
Click to expand...
Russia will be better serve if they commit forces to end this quickly. If they drag it out, it will give NATO funny ideas. This piecemeal approach is a disaster for Russian troops.

Already there are talks of NFZ in some parts of Ukraine from the west.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Kich said:
How about we get back on topic. Past 15 to 20 pages have been too random.

Videos from Kyiv and Kharkiv have been drying up. Have the Russians made any progress since **reportedly** they started bringing heavy artillery. Those are the two places they are facing resistances.

If those two fall, this war will end in weeks.

Edit: I've seen morning videos of Russian Z military convoys in Kharkiv
Click to expand...
Kharkiv has been receiving very heavy shelling overnight, not sure if those 200mm+ guns were involved but it's indeed very intense. Rumour has it that Russians are making an attack now and have reached Malyshev Factory, this I can't confirm.

Other news I've picked up listening on
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
:
Handing out guns in Kiev is turning out to be an bad idea and yesterday they started going door to door and asking people to hand the guns back, obviously the numbers they're getting back is a tiny fraction of what they handed out. Overall not that many guns were handed out in Kiev. The majority of guns handed out were in Kharkiv.

Also, Ukrainian troops in Donbas area are nearly out of ammo, that's why DPR and LPR forces are actually pushing through defence lines and gaining grounds now.
 
LawLeadsToPeace

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Chilled_k6 said:
I'm curious about the Russian tactics. Kharkov seems to be the location where there's been a lot of material loss for the Russians (at least from amateur videos). Shouldn't they be more cautious in their advance moving through contested territory? And that column has no armor.
Click to expand...
That column is most likely a patrol to initiate contact with Ukranian forces.
 
S

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Chilled_k6 said:
I'm curious about the Russian tactics. Kharkov seems to be the location where there's been a lot of material loss for the Russians (at least from amateur videos). Shouldn't they be more cautious in their advance moving through contested territory? And that column has no armor.
Click to expand...
Maybe they are trying to take the Malyshev factory without destroying it, hence the restraint?
 
M

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
anzha said:
It's that time again! A summary of my observations and thoughts for the day. We are now 3 days into the Russian campaign in Ukraine. The dawn of the fourth day is hours away. There have been some changes in the war. There have been some that has stayed the same. All of this is my opinion and worth as much as you paid for it.

1. I am going to say this quite loudly first. The Russians are still winning. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.

2. The Russian air force is still very anemic. While the Ghost of Kiev was suspect the second the ace combat derived myth popped up, Ukrainian jets remain in the air, taking down Russian occasionally and striking ground targets. I am still very, very surprised by this. The milk carton meme really fits here.

3. The Russian army is making significant progress and yet still chokes on certain areas. Sumy trades back and forth. Kharkov is still defiant. The LNR and DNR have made little progress. yet the Crimean forces seem to be making quite significant forward progress. There are the forces from Belarus as well that seem to have reached towards Kiev.

4. Airborne assaults have happened a few places by the Russians. The disputed accounts of Holostmel, Borispyl and Vasylkiv show the Russians really want an airport. With the armour so close, it almost seems pointless.

5. Its becoming more and more obvious, not just rumored, the Russian army did NOT come with a long enough, large enough logistics tail. On day 3 of the war, we see armoured fighting vehicles running out of fuel. The only idea that seems even remotely possible was put forward here of maskirovka, deception about an invasion coming. I, honestly, have a very, very hard time believing that. Another week of moving equipment, especially tanker trucks would have made the invasion go far, far more smoothly. I am going to say this out loud and I am sure people are going to be unhappy and mock me for it, but...perhaps the Russians are just not good at moving those large of armies anymore?

6. That leads us to the fact it appears the Russians have still not committed more than 2/3s, probably only 1/2, of the forces they prepositioned. Again, makes little sense. battles are won by those who get there the fastest with the mostest, using awful American english for a moment.

7. Ukraine continues to resist. Fiercely, forcefully and defiantly. Their forces continue to out perform who and what they are. It's quite impressive. Any idea Ukraine would fall in 72 hours was clearly a delusion.

8. Kiev still stands. Which, again, I'm surprised the Russians have not pushed in enough to at least have established themselves in the city...somewhere.

9. Disinformation remains rampant. Whether it was the claims Mariupol fell in an hour of the first night or...as it looks like now, the downing of the IL-76s. 2 were reported the night before. 2 were reported shot down AGAIN today. They're huge. There should be craters or impacts of some kind. And yet... nichevo. Show me, Kiev. Show me. The claims about the Chechens at Holostmel is another one. Show proof, not pronounciations. I can declare I am king of the world, but unless I have pix...it didn't happen.

10. Flipping back to Russia, it seems there are now efforts to hit infrastructure. The gas pipeline outside of Kharkov. The oil farm at Vasylkiv. This seems like a shift in targets to me.

11. Finally, for today, I think i figured out wtf Rubio was talking about. It probably has to do with the claim the Russian generals were ordered to capture Kiev by Monday and damn the consequences. If that order is even remotely real, it would require the Kievans to lie down and show their bellies. That seems wildly unlikely to me.

Let me state again, Russia is still winning. I'd upgrade Ukraine's chances of winning at 5% now. 1:20 is awful odds.

Let's see what happens today. Will Kharkov finally fall? Will Kiev?
Click to expand...
I’m curious. Disinformation is extremely rampant as mentioned.

in that case, couldn’t it be also be possible that our perceptions of Russian mistakes and ineptitude as well as the Ukrainian fierce defend as false? Maybe the Russians already expected this, and wanted to minimize collateral damage. Maybe their supply limitations are because they didn’t expect to penetrate so deep so quickly, and are actually ahead of their schedule? Is that possibility? I’m not a military expert so I don’t know.

i meant 90% off social media posts on this war are pro Ukrainian. Really gives us a loop sided view. Even the Russian Reddit page is closed but the Ukrainian one is still very active. additionally we have already witnessed lots of proven false information on the Ukrainian side. I don’t trust any Twitter post on this war anymore, especially if it’s anti Russian.

btw off china ever go to war in the future, we can expect the same type of propaganda on social media, probably worst. This is good practice to learn to deal with it, at least for me,
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top