It's that time again! A summary of my observations and thoughts for the day. We are now 3 days into the Russian campaign in Ukraine. The dawn of the fourth day is hours away. There have been some changes in the war. There have been some that has stayed the same. All of this is my opinion and worth as much as you paid for it.
1. I am going to say this quite loudly first. The Russians are still winning. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.
2. The Russian air force is still very anemic. While the Ghost of Kiev was suspect the second the ace combat derived myth popped up, Ukrainian jets remain in the air, taking down Russian occasionally and striking ground targets. I am still very, very surprised by this. The milk carton meme really fits here.
3. The Russian army is making significant progress and yet still chokes on certain areas. Sumy trades back and forth. Kharkov is still defiant. The LNR and DNR have made little progress. yet the Crimean forces seem to be making quite significant forward progress. There are the forces from Belarus as well that seem to have reached towards Kiev.
4. Airborne assaults have happened a few places by the Russians. The disputed accounts of Holostmel, Borispyl and Vasylkiv show the Russians really want an airport. With the armour so close, it almost seems pointless.
5. Its becoming more and more obvious, not just rumored, the Russian army did NOT come with a long enough, large enough logistics tail. On day 3 of the war, we see armoured fighting vehicles running out of fuel. The only idea that seems even remotely possible was put forward here of maskirovka, deception about an invasion coming. I, honestly, have a very, very hard time believing that. Another week of moving equipment, especially tanker trucks would have made the invasion go far, far more smoothly. I am going to say this out loud and I am sure people are going to be unhappy and mock me for it, but...perhaps the Russians are just not good at moving those large of armies anymore?
6. That leads us to the fact it appears the Russians have still not committed more than 2/3s, probably only 1/2, of the forces they prepositioned. Again, makes little sense. battles are won by those who get there the fastest with the mostest, using awful American english for a moment.
7. Ukraine continues to resist. Fiercely, forcefully and defiantly. Their forces continue to out perform who and what they are. It's quite impressive. Any idea Ukraine would fall in 72 hours was clearly a delusion.
8. Kiev still stands. Which, again, I'm surprised the Russians have not pushed in enough to at least have established themselves in the city...somewhere.
9. Disinformation remains rampant. Whether it was the claims Mariupol fell in an hour of the first night or...as it looks like now, the downing of the IL-76s. 2 were reported the night before. 2 were reported shot down AGAIN today. They're huge. There should be craters or impacts of some kind. And yet... nichevo. Show me, Kiev. Show me. The claims about the Chechens at Holostmel is another one. Show proof, not pronounciations. I can declare I am king of the world, but unless I have pix...it didn't happen.
10. Flipping back to Russia, it seems there are now efforts to hit infrastructure. The gas pipeline outside of Kharkov. The oil farm at Vasylkiv. This seems like a shift in targets to me.
11. Finally, for today, I think i figured out wtf Rubio was talking about. It probably has to do with the claim the Russian generals were ordered to capture Kiev by Monday and damn the consequences. If that order is even remotely real, it would require the Kievans to lie down and show their bellies. That seems wildly unlikely to me.
Let me state again, Russia is still winning. I'd upgrade Ukraine's chances of winning at 5% now. 1:20 is awful odds.
Let's see what happens today. Will Kharkov finally fall? Will Kiev?
