Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Russian heavy armor still appears to be have not reached Kiev proper. Why?
You do not need much armor to fight what is mostly irregulars with a tiny amount of regular troops. Those are to be used against the bulk of their army in the East and South. They might send the BMPT Terminator into the cities.

The Ukrainians are still doing better than I would have thought. I legitimately thought the Russians would have stormed Kiev yesterday. Maybe not taken it, but had occupied important pieces of it.
The whole thing is a ruse so the Ukrainian Army in the East will get into the open ground to reinforce Kiev.
Zelensky is such an idiot he already ordered them back to Kiev.
Had he not the campaign would take longer. The Russians already planned for that contingency which is why we saw the TOS Burantino and BM-30 Smerch moving a couple hours back. It is going to be a massacre.

Despite all that, the Russians are still winning. I give them a 95% chance of doing so. Each day the Russians take longer, the percentage ticks down, IMO, a little less likely to win. Like *A* percent per day.
No way. The Ukrainians have like zero chance once their main army is destroyed which, since they are idiots, should happen over the next 24h/48h.

Former NATO supreme commander believes a no-fly or safe zone in Ukraine is being considered by the US
If the US does that, and it goes bad for Russia, I think China might enter the conflict in a repeat of Korea.
China can't allow Russia to fall to other side and get US troops on Siberia near Beijing.

after 3 days the Crimea and Donetsk armies have not managed to link up
This is on purpose. They are moving slowly in that axis to see if the Ukrainian armed forces retreat from the cities.

it’s only 15km and Russia cannot secure that corridor along the Sea of Azov and have land bridge to Crimea like they wanted
See above.

If the Russians believed in such brotherly love then don't start full scale invasion in the first place. Defend "brothers" in Donbass but don't take the friggin capital, or attempt to.
The Ukrainian Army has long range artillery so they would need to pull back to a line at least 80 km distance if not more.
And this wouldn't take care of them squeezing Russian ethnic citizens at Mariupol and Odessa.

The United States went into South Korea and never left. The Soviet Union took Manchuria and North Korea. They gave most of it back to China and their troops left North Korea. "Russians never leave" according to the US. Which is still in South Korea, Japan, Germany, etc.

Yeah, Putin should've made an emergency purchase in preparation. Hell, they can slap "made in Russia" on it if their pride demand it, China won't mind (in fact China might prefer it that way....)
Yes, I see a massive rebranding and rebadging industry in the future for China. Lol.

Russia dumped the dollar from the Central Bank reserves, and then mostly replaced that with a big increase of Euro assets lol.
He was foolish enough that he trusted the EU. Time to pay for this now
It was a gamble and it failed. Don't worry, there are plenty of EU assets in Russia they can confiscate.

"In addition to expulsion from SWIFT, Biden is now considering sanctions on Russia’s Central Bank (50% assets in US$ & Euro), which would likely cause the ruble to crash. Perhaps the Biden WH is coming around to adopting the hard-hitting sanctions it should have imposed days ago."
Oh dear. Putin will have to pay peanuts for both salaries and weapons purchases since all of them are made in Russia.
Russia will be able to massively expand their army for peanuts.

At the same time Russian oligarchs can no longer suck money from the Russian economy and put it in accounts in the West.
Western paid shills and agents in Russia can no longer be easily paid by the CIA and NED.

Thanks NATO!

What "toys" did Ukraine steal from Russia to justify invasion?
The irony is that Russia's invasion of Ukraine actually validates Ukraine's security concerns and desire to join NATO for protection.
Notice how Russia is neither invading Finland nor Kazkhstan or Belarus.
They don't want a hostile regime on their border. A regime which was deeply anti-Russian and tried to erase the Russian legacy in Ukraine by engaging in what the US would call genocide if it was anywhere else. Both cultural and actual genocide. Mostly cultural.

China doesn't have to fear anything from these capitalists. So long as China is economically powerful, it's not possible for West to gang-up on China and risk losing a major import/export market (just like Europe cannot afford losing Russia's energy imports). In America, anyone can speak up and share their opinions, but not every opinion matters. Most of the neocon warhawks sharing anti-China views are likely paid by military-industrial complex to whip up 'enemy fervor' to justify large defense budgets post-Cold War, and doesn't necessarily represent the view of Wall Street, Big Corporations, and Billionaire class who all are invested heavily in China or Greater China markets.
Oh I would be concerned allright. Their plan is to make China poor gradually. This is a many decades long plan.
Already much of the high tech industry is moving into Vietnam. They also are funding backups in the US proper for their MIC.
The plan will be to make to China what they made to Iraq in the 1990s. Their current actions against Russia are a template and China should be watching carefully.

I am sure the Russians did not see that coming like them getting kicked out of SWIFT prior to invading Ukraine, it's like they don't plan anything
They saw it coming allright. This is why they made their own electronics payment system and debit card network "Mir".
Their electronics payment system is connected with banks in Turkey, India, and China.
They also purged all their US treasuries and dollar reserves in the Central Bank.

What they did not expect though was that the EU would freeze their euro reserves in the Central Bank.
They gave Europe a chance to disconnect from the US. Europe has wasted their chance.

IMO, Russia will take Ukraine east of Dnipro river. Dnipro river cuts Kiev into two halves, a western half and a eastern half. Putin will likely install former Ukraine president Yanukovich as president of Russia backed East Ukraine which is east of Dnipro river.
Yanukovich is discredited. They will get someone else.

One reason the Ukrainians are fighting so hard:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
A lot of this is propaganda. The famine happened allright and it was a combination of poor harvest, due to bad weather, and poor logistics to distribute the food, not to mention criminal planning. It was not a phenomenon unique to Ukraine, it also happened in Russia's agricultural region in the south, and Northern Kazakhstan. Local party leaders were way too eager to present high grain output to the central government in conditions of bad harvest and caused this to happen. At the same time Russia was duty bound to pay for Western technology imports like tractor factories in gold and wheat. The West did not accept manufactured goods as payment. This meant "excess" wheat was exported and people starved.

EU membership which will pull Ukraine out of economic poverty faster than Eurasian Union ever would.
Half of Ukraine's trade was with Russia. They simply cut that out, did you expect good results? This is why Ukraine become the poorest country in Europe. Ukraine was better off as a neutral country with trade with both sides and only an idiot wouldn't see that.

Something that has not really been discussed here thus far is the implications of the Russian invasion in terms of its effects on Russian national security; I.E. the material losses on Russian military forces.
So far I have seen vehicle losses which amount to like a couple of months of Russian production. Ammo losses are probably higher. But not that expensive. Yet.
 
Last edited:

meckhardt98

Junior Member
Registered Member
Stingers aren't that big a threat anymore. These days aircraft can fly at night using thermal, and strike from dozens of kilometers away with guided munitions. On top of that, with drones, you never risk losing a single pilot.
I can assure you the stinger is still very much a threat to low flying helicopters; which the Russians are using an abundance of; especially when said helicopters are transports and gunships which are not using stand-off munitions and are instead supporting infantry assaults.

There has also been a lack of Russian drone usage in the conflict.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Why do you think there "ought to be none [security threat by Russia]" when Putin repeatedly laments the collapse of Soviet Union as the "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century"? I don't see any basis where it can credibly asserted that Russia "ought not be" a security concern when it's leader openly waxes about the loss of Soviet territories. I think given the fresh memories of Soviet domination, Putin the Great's desire for glory, it is not unreasonable to seek nuclear weapons or defensive alliances. Some members dismiss Ukraine as merely a 'US puppet' incapable of independent thought, but I think the fresh memories of Soviet domination and Putin's musing about former glory can easily justify joining defensive alliances. Afterall, Russia's weakness is only temporary, not permanent.
Why do you keep repeating this nonsense that Putin desires "the recreation of the Soviet Union" nonsense. Ukraine's so-called nuclear arsenal could not be fired without the source codes from MOSCOW. With all due respect @Phead128 You are clearly blinded by your western/American orientation with respect to this issue.
 

meckhardt98

Junior Member
Registered Member
With star link being setup across Ukraine we’ll hopefully get new updates on the ongoing conflict and hot zones.

I wonder what Elons catch will be once the dust has settled; I highly doubt it’s out of the kindness of his heart.
 

yongpengsuen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine's second biggest city Kharkiv and Ukraine's second biggest port Mariupol are both under immense pressure. Can't be good for Ukraine's economy,
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top