Ukrainian War Developments

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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"We did it. Cyprus confirmed it will not block the decision to ban Russia from SWIFT. Ukrainian diplomacy keeps working 24/7 to achieve important decisions and protect Ukraine from Russian invaders."
If Russia is kicked out from SWIFT basically all their trade with the West is blocked. No one will trade goods without payment. You can still use physical cash to make purchases, but they announced they froze Russian Central Bank reserves too. So only the cash people in Russia physically have can be used. This will be a minute amount. This is basically similar to the Iranian sanctions.

Two days late and short. They should just put up a no-fly zone over Ukraine and let the Ukrainians clean up.
They won't because Ukraine is blanketed in a Russian IADS bubble. If the US moves all its airforce assets into Europe NATO would theoretically win in a conventional conflict, but with massive losses of like a hundred aircraft, However Russia would target NATO airbases and deny them of that chance.

This reminds people of when it abandoned the former Afghan regime last year, the US also said on multiple occasions it would provide "humanitarian" assistance to Afghanistan. But shockingly, the reality is that the so-called US "humanitarian" assistance hasn't been provided to the Afghan people, but the US carved up the $7 billion in frozen funds that Afghanistan's central bank had deposited in New York. As the culprit of the Afghan issue, after satisfying its own strategic interests, the US only left the locals "an avalanche of hunger and poverty," leading to the severe malnutrition of millions of children in Afghanistan.
This is correct. Even blocking Afghanistan from using their own money from purchasing food and medicine. US politicians are quite evil.
After the 2014 Euromaidan coup happened in Ukraine, the US flew all the gold reserves in the Ukrainian central bank and exchanged them with US treasuries and dollars. This should be enough to make you realize how "grass-roots" the movement was.
It was a US operation from the beggining. Some say the US used $50 billion to bribe the Ukrainian top echelons to make it happen.
It is known they were paying Euromaidan protesters $1 million a day, and also gave another $50 million directly to the leads of the Euromaiden funneled directly into their bank accounts.

Why do the US even bother to influence the Chinese public? Do they think they can influence the decision of Chinese government?
It is part of their strategy. They do what they accuse Russia of doing in the US. The US has a $500 million fund (besides the black budget) just to push anti-China propaganda.

I'd find every last Russian asset in the US, personal property, money owed Russia by the Fed, etc. and say, "Thanks Vlad!"
Russia's economy has limited connections with the US economy. But Russia has ways it can strike back economically, both directly and indirectly.

Kharkiv was one of the most pro Russian regions left in Ukraine, they even had their own "Peoples Republic". Footage on youtube from there on youtube over the last few years makes it look like an occupied zone.
The Ukrainian units there are probably the most experienced. Most of the Russian losses seem to be coming from that region.
Kharkiv and Odessa are going to be damned hard to take back because of this. The Ukrainian government troops aren't affraid of putting artillery inside cities near people's houses either. Kharkiv and Odessa are heavily suppressed by the most nationalist of their troops which were placed there to terrorize the local Russian ethnic population into submission.

Realistically no one is going to invade Russia.
It still has either the greatest or second greatest nuclear stockpile in the world. So what if NATO expands into Ukraine?
You already forgot the coups in Belarus and Kazakhstan last months? The US objective is to undermine and co-opt all states bordering Russia, pump them up with their old weapons stocks, fund them just enough to keep their economy floating, and then turn them against Russia. Secessionist coups are sponsored inside Russia like the one in Chechnya. Politicians and NGOs with anti-Russian interests like Navalny are sponsored with NED money.

Going forward Europe may no longer exist as an independent pole, and neither would Russia. Only long term beneficiaries are on the opposite sides of the Pacific.
Europe has turned completely to the US side at least two years ago. They no longer have an independent policy. Macron is probably one of the few European politicians who tried to do this but he is incompetent. The current German leadership is more than incompetent, they are just Atlanticist trash.

Russian Air Force is very much not active over Ukraine ... Russian troops are advancing with minimum fire support. It seems They don't want to destroy Ukraine. Only its military structure. Very weird tactic. However, this is causing significant losses on Russian vehicles. It risk so many soldiers lifes.
Try reading about the Antonov airport seizure close to Kiev. This is false. The Russians are using their airforce to strike enemy vehicle columns.

But the real killer is the ISR support from the West letting Ukraine exploit these weaknesses and hit much harder than it has any right to.
US ISR doesn't seem to be that much use to them. Ukrainian central control has collapsed enough they are shooting themselves and claiming their own people are Russian infiltrators. In Kiev, last night, they killed their own internal ministry forces retreating back into the city claiming they were a Russian military column. Armed Ukrainian civilians shot a civilian green Jeep they thought was a Russian military vehicle. They claim an island near Odessa had 12 of their troops and that they fought to the last, and there were like 72 and they all surrendered to Russia. It is quite obvious central control is gone.

Unfortunately for them, Russia can get wrecked and Ukraine still loses badly in under two weeks.
Every video of Russia getting wrecked means Ukraine gets hit twice as hard somewhere else.
Too much overmatch.
I have only seen images of a couple of Russian vehicles destroyed. Like a T-80BVM and a T-72B3. Two or three Ka-62 helicopters.
In comparison I have seen whole logistic columns of Ukrainian military disabled, and a tank and IFV column also disabled and abandoned. Other loses which are claimed to be Russian losses with dark olive green paint seem to be using Soviet era vehicles owned by the separatists. Not Russian army.

But the fundamental goal for Ukraine is to play for time and not capitulate. Russia's on the clock (like all attacking forces) so Ukraine is trying to run out the clock.
There is no such thing as a clock. The all mighty NATO against tiny Serbia, a nation with around 7 million, had to bomb them for three months straight as they were too scared to send their ground forces in. They only did this after Serbia surrendered after the massive aerial bombardment. Serbia still had most of their armed forces intact in the end since they moved them at night and kept them hidden.

If NATO keeps doing this Putin is going to open up the Brest front and cut the whole Polish border.
I think the Russian game plan is to take the South and slowly encircle the Ukrainian troops in the East while leaving them an escape route to the West. They then threaten Kiev. Once the Ukrainian army in the East tries to go back to Kiev via the open terrain to reinforce Kiev, they will be obliterated by mass artillery attacks and aviation bombardment. Zelensky, that dolt, ordered the troops in the East to move back to Kiev just a couple hours ago. :rolleyes:
Once those troops are obliterated I expect the Russians to move into all the cities on the contact line and Kiev simultaneously at the same time they close the logistics routes from the West with an air bombardment campaign with missiles.

Africans trying to escape from Ukraine are complaining of difficulty and discrimination at land borders into the EU.
The Poles don't want Middle Eastern immigrants from Belarus either. Just shows how these people are.

The Russians don't have air superiority. I am actually extremely shocked by this.
They have air superiority allright. Just not air supremacy. Their air forces are designed to work that way. It is unlike US doctrine.

The Russians have SIGNIFICANT logistical problems that will only get worse. Units running out of gas on day three? uuuuhhhh.
Why do you think they moved only a small amount of troops? You don't need a huge logistics train to do troop exercises. They did not move a lot of those resources to the border before to keep up appearances.
 

Phead128

Captain
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Moderator - World Affairs
I would have never thought that the US and Canada would arrest Meng.
A red princess is minor in the grand scheme of things. If Mao Zedong's son can be killed in Korean War, then China can lose a thousand of these 'red nobility' princesses and still survive just fine.
I would never think that the West would go so low by claiming China committed genocide in XJ so that they could impose sanctions to XJ so that the living standard in XJ would never be improved. You want to bet on it that it would never happen.
It's pretty symbolic since it's impossible to certify the origin of cotton. China has many tricky ways to obfuscate, redirect, or outright lie about the origin of XJ cotton to evade sanctions.

Here is a great article on easy Chinese exporters can evade US tariffs using loopholes/tricks/obfuscation/lies and why US-China trade deficit is expanding. US isn't even investigating tariff invasions or basically given up enforcing the tariffs.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China won the trade war and easily evading tariffs, so let the salty Americans ban XJ cotton as a consolation prize, Beijing will evade those sanction too!
That's called salami slice tactic. Many European countries can't afford to totally decouple from Russia so they take one step at a time. Just a few days ago, we all thought SWIFT is off the table because it is so detrimental to both Russia and the EU.
Fair enough. Salami slicing can potentially lead to complete de-coupling, I hope that doesn't happen... but time will tell.
 

Helius

Senior Member
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Maybe I'm too dumb to understand the logic. It seems to me sellers always has the choice of accepting USD or not regardless of whether China send her USD back to US, it makes no difference.

Vendors are willing to accept USD simply because they have faith in it as a stable currency.

China buying US goods with USD will only reinforce that confidence, however if China spends all that USD to buy Non US goods it will cause USD to flood every nation's currency reserve, effectively devaluing the USD. Now this will impact confidence in USD, if China really wants to stick it to the US then China will follow by refusing USD payment for Chinese goods. This is game over for USD, and I believe nuclear war will follow soon after....

Anyway, I will not continue on this topic as it is quite OT, my fault to get baited in it....
Yeah we're getting into economics 101. But to address your point briefly, by allowing a currency to circulate you're creating demand.

So to put very simply, by giving the supply i.e. USD back to the supplier, you're signalling you'd rather use other legal tenders e.g. Euro, JPY, RMB etc. for world trade, effectively upending the dollar's status as the global reserve currency and raising demand for others. Remember the US' greatest export is the dollar. If nobody buys USD, suddenly everything in the US becomes super expensive due to excess money supply i.e. hyperinflation.

This is what the US is doing to itself right now with the SWIFT sanctions, to bring it back on topic. Because where else is all that USD that was supposed to be bought by Europe for Russian gas gonna go? Back to the US.
 
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anzha

Senior Member
Registered Member
Oh thank goodness you're back! Have you seen what the kids have been doing without adults around? Arguing American economics here. yeesh.

They have air superiority allright. Just not air supremacy. Their air forces are designed to work that way. It is unlike US doctrine.

Forgive me, but it seems to me they have a very contested air space, rather than a lightly contested as if they had air superiority.

Why do you think they moved only a small amount of troops? You don't need a huge logistics train to do troop exercises. They did not move a lot of those resources to the border before to keep up appearances.

I apologize, but I don't buy that. To move around large armies, even in an exercise, you need logistics if that exercise is legit. Tanks don't sit there and navel, belly hatch? gaze.
 

yongpengsuen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Stingers aren't that big a threat anymore. These days aircraft can fly at night using thermal, and strike from dozens of kilometers away with guided munitions. On top of that, with drones, you never risk losing a single pilot.
 
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