Its impossible for the EU to act as a unified block because it fell to the US trap by accepting Easter Europe countries to be enter the EU
The moment this happened, it was destined that the EU would be dysfunctional
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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The moment this happened, it was destined that the EU would be dysfunctional
Its looking as though the US (with UK help) is looking to false flag a "Russian Aggression" The current stream of odd stories and events - ie Russia choosing a new "puppet leader" and the US and UK embassies withdrawing families and none vital staff members etc
Blinken promised Lavrov a response to Russian demands this week. No said it had to be written!
Blinken promised Lavrov a response to Russian demands this week. No said it had to be written!
It is for the domestic audience, not for Russia.
Too many problem at home, like Boris's party, Biden economical issues and so on.
Or just simply the deep state dictating the terms from the pentagon/GCHQ.
I think the core issue is Putin refuses to accept the outcome imposed by the West after the end of the cold war, he wants to roll back and renegotiate major parts of it.
That is the worry. All to easy to write it off as a media stunt, but sooner or later you come to the point where ".... and suddenly!!..... nothing happened.........."
I think they would be left looking rather foolish if after going to all this trouble, they simply had to say "sorry false alarm".
It would also build the impression that when Putin yawns, Biden jumps nervously...
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Right, this whole ‘crisis’ has been a real head scratcher for me because none of it makes much sense.
There just isn’t much value in a Russian invasion of Ukraine, certainly not enough to justify the military and economic costs of going through with one.
As such, I don’t think the Russians planned to do anything. But rather I think it was all rather haphazardly escalated in response to the weak and chaotic response from NATO and the US.
Simply put, the Russians started off with a bit of ‘normal’ sabre rattling and boundary testing, but decided to keep pushing because the US and NATO positions kept collapsing at the slightest touch. That’s where the frankly outrageous demands about NATO withdrawal came from.
At the strategic level, I think the Russians are just probing to see where America’s bottle line is now, and will back off without a fight once they know where American red lines really are.
This is also a happy coincidence for the Russian economy in the meantime as record breaking gas prices must be a welcome boost.
There would also be internal Russian domestic political considerations as Putin is also silencing some of his domestic enemies who might be rather keen at the US’ current ‘white races United against the evil yellow Chinese’ racist bullshitary.
There just isn’t much value in a Russian invasion of Ukraine, certainly not enough to justify the military and economic costs of going through with one.
As such, I don’t think the Russians planned to do anything. But rather I think it was all rather haphazardly escalated in response to the weak and chaotic response from NATO and the US.
Simply put, the Russians started off with a bit of ‘normal’ sabre rattling and boundary testing, but decided to keep pushing because the US and NATO positions kept collapsing at the slightest touch. That’s where the frankly outrageous demands about NATO withdrawal came from.
At the strategic level, I think the Russians are just probing to see where America’s bottle line is now, and will back off without a fight once they know where American red lines really are.
This is also a happy coincidence for the Russian economy in the meantime as record breaking gas prices must be a welcome boost.
There would also be internal Russian domestic political considerations as Putin is also silencing some of his domestic enemies who might be rather keen at the US’ current ‘white races United against the evil yellow Chinese’ racist bullshitary.
"It is for the domestic audience"
There is undoubtedly a gigantic dose of propaganda, these days we can watch in amazement the shameful media circus. The West is a gigantic kindergarten
But
But the visceral Russophobic impulse of a large part of the Anglo-imperial oligarchy in Washington and London is unfortunately very real
And
On the other hand, there is a clear intention to damage Germany, in fact the Minsk agreement basically negotiated by frau Merkel and Putin has become a dead letter at Washington's express wish
There is undoubtedly a gigantic dose of propaganda, these days we can watch in amazement the shameful media circus. The West is a gigantic kindergarten
But
But the visceral Russophobic impulse of a large part of the Anglo-imperial oligarchy in Washington and London is unfortunately very real
And
On the other hand, there is a clear intention to damage Germany, in fact the Minsk agreement basically negotiated by frau Merkel and Putin has become a dead letter at Washington's express wish
So what do you do if you push at an open door that opens wider and wider every time you push?
If Putin had a chance to reacquire the former actual Russian areas and therefore better secure his hold on the Crimea and Black Sea in general, he might conclude he would have to be a fool not to take it and just wait for his enemies to sort out there current disarray anc come back at him later in good order again.
If Putin had a chance to reacquire the former actual Russian areas and therefore better secure his hold on the Crimea and Black Sea in general, he might conclude he would have to be a fool not to take it and just wait for his enemies to sort out there current disarray anc come back at him later in good order again.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
This is a giant game of Chess. And just as in Chess, you don’t always want to push your pawns as far forward as you can just because your opponent isn’t actively pushing back to stop you from doing so. Overreaching can create liabilities and costs disportioncate to any gains made.
What would be the tactical or strategic valuing in re-taking the former Russian parts of Ukraine? Would said benefits outweighs the costs of the inevitable economic sanctions?
I think Putin is content to just kick the door open and let the draft in without actually stepping over the precipice himself.
That in itself has value as it must be pretty moral sapping for the Ukrainians to be staring down the barrel of a Russian invasion and only get thoughts and prayers from their supposed saviours in Washington and NATO. Do you really want to be cannon fodder for such people who don’t want to have your back when the chips are down?
Russian value is maximised by pushing as far as possible without an invasion, because an actual invasion will force NATO and America into a reaction. Whereas right now their continued inaction is doing them no end of damage.
Impossible. Russia != USSR. In case of large scale conventional conflict the best case scenario for Russia would be a short military conflict for 3-4 weeks and then go to the negotiations table. They won't be able to keep it going for any longer. Baltic countries are indeed a case lost if Russia will attack them as there's no possible way to stop the there but if Poland would be able to build up depth and stop the first attack it would probably become a stalemate until reinforcements would come and then of course Russia won't stand to the combined military might of NATO combined forces.
I think that in case of absolutely (which is impossible nowadays, it's not 1940's) surprise attack through Belarus towards Poland and Baltics (becasue that's the only possible scenario) France, Italy and GB will be able to mobilize and send reinforcements within 4 weeks. US forces are in place but largely fragmented. And that's reason why so many within NATO propose change towards more fast-paced response reforms in NATO countries rather than building up expeditionary forces for conflicts in Africa (like France is doing for a long time in recent years for example).
Yeah, sure. Thanks to 4 weeks war they will be eating only kartoshki and bliny for the next 20 years...
German industries to be exact. Poland plans to diversify and become a gas-hub for countries in central Europe with gas from Norway and LNG and if I remember it well they want to keep Russian gas at max 20% of their needs and they're building gas pipes towards East (Ukraine) and further south. But German industries of course have higher demands for gas and they can't do 100% with Russian gas and that's why we have within EU and NATO that stems from this simple fact.
A classic input from another expert. If you're so sure about coming years in the world wide economy tell us more details so all of us will get rich in the process!
I wanted to click Like as it all sounded really well and I agree with 90% of your post but of course you had to include your trademark 'victimization' card as always
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