Ukrainian War Developments

Overbom said:

They made many mistakes but they still reached Kiev. Military operations are inherently unpredictable but Russia didn't seem to have planned this very well.

Anyway, Russia's military is too big and too strong for it to lose against Ukraine, but that means the conflict will cause them more casualties and it will most probably get prolonged

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"In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable". - Dwight D. Eisenhower

Why does every Ukranian soldier looks well armed, properly dressed in multicam+Armor plated, than regular russian troop in every photo circulated ? Despite the fact that Russian GDP per-capita is higher than Ukranian.

The amount of false being put out on social media by Ukrainian citizens is making the situation worse. It's impossible to vet whats coming in, and some of the things being proposed are dangerous. I wonder how many vigilante groups have killed because of online rumours.

They've finally managed to implement the curfew, that's a good start to restoring law and order.

I think there's a good argument to shut down internet entirely in these situations. Hopefully the Ukrainians aren't reading this and don't get any ideas...

GodRektsNoobs said:

I don't think Russia had military option as first choice. Otherwise they would have been far more coordinated. The current situation probably was plan Y or Z.

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Even if it wasn't well planned, my critique of Russia is mostly about the state of its military

Aircraft are flying blind and then get shot down. Helicopters flying blind without cover. Formation convoys moving in Ukranian roads like they would move in parades in Moscow. Drones/air support is almost non-existent existent

Very few troops committed, only 50k (with 100 on reserve + rotated). They need 200k extra troops to make proper fronts and secure their supply lines

Dogs of the same kennel should help each other out, 2 dogs away actually, could be friends.

Hypothesis:

Ukraine stationed it's best troops in the East in preparation for an attack on the separatists.

The current Russian offensive was meant to lure those troops into racing back to Kiev so that the Eastern forces can gain control of the entire region with minimal losses.

Putin's end game is to take control of portions of Ukraine and force Zelensky into negotiations. Russia will keep the pressure on Ukraine, with the understanding that they can come in and take another chunk of Ukraine's territory at any time. In the worst case scenario, Russia will still have those areas as a buffer zone.

j17wang said:

Its not zero. Russia's offensive has made slower progress than expected, the longer this goes, the less stockpiles of material available and the more likely NATO is likely to send harder assets like replacement tanks to Ukraine. Putin is under the gun to wrap it up. Hopefully a ceasefire can be reached in a few days.

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this Syria sortie rate from 30 to 40 aircraft from one airfield. i think they are just taking it slow.

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In just four days of the "retaliation campaign," the planes carried out 522 sorties on 826 targets. They used 85 air-based cruise missiles, 18 sea-based missiles, and 1,400 tons of air bombs.
For 60 days, from December 24, 2015, to February 22, 2016, the air group conducted about 6,500 sorties in Syria—on average, 107 flights per day—which is at least 50 percent more than the group had conducted before the increase in numbers of aircraft.28

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bettydice said:

There are many people and nations that grab huge benefits out of instable situations. I think China tends to be too obsessed with stability and to be risk-averse. I always see "no need", "don't play with fire" attitude and the inwardly attitude that focuses on internal advancement, here too. I think China has lost many opportunities and potentials by wanting to avoid dangers and conflicts.

Being neutral means it's hard for other countries to consider China as their ally, and that makes them choose the US who provides protection to its allies and takes their side.

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Until very very recently (right around the time of covid) China was still seen as very far behind the US. Even J20 was still in the low double digits and semiconductors were nowhere. China has gained a lot of strength in the past 2 years, with 14nm now quite secure, J20 starting full production and even gaining a full 3 trillion in gdp in 2021. Not to mention the entire non-western world seeing the immense difference in state capacity through the difference in covid handling (westerners still believe millions of chinese died though)

j17wang said:

Ukraine may potentially accept Beijing, as that would also put China's reputation on the line and force good faith from China. Ukraine could ask for some leverage against Russia and in return China could also win some support from non-aligned countries as a place to mediate. Ukraine might even request chinese assistance for reconstruction, for which China would comply, for good optics with belt and road.

China doesnt have an interest in either Ukraine's dismemberment or Russia becoming a complete pariah state.

Otherwise, UAE might work well too as its a reasonable node between Russia, Europe, China, and US.

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Still very unlikely but I could see a situation where China plays peacekeeper and forces a settlement, given how Russia is now completely out of options with the west. It would be a huge step away from traditional chinese diplomacy though.

Friendly fire

Overbom said:

Even if it wasn't well planned, my critique of Russia is mostly about the state of its military

Aircraft are flying blind and then get shot down. Helicopters flying blind without cover. Formation convoys moving in Ukranian roads like they would move in parades in Moscow. Drones/air support is almost non-existent existent

Very few troops committed, only 50k (with 100 on reserve + rotated). They need 200k extra troops to make proper fronts and secure their supply lines

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All these so called losses have been reported by Ukraine. Yesterday when I went to bed, the Russian attempt to take the airport at Gostomel was supposedly a debacle. This morning I woke up to read about Russians firmly in control and landing in reinforcements.

There's way too much disinformation right now to draw conclusions. The only thing we can be certain of is that it's been 2 days and Kiev is under siege.