Ukrainian War Developments

Status
Not open for further replies.

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
On the other hand, I'm beginning to doubt Russia lost planeloads of people.

Maybe it's just me but I expect footage to be uploaded within minutes of it happening.
A giant fireball that close to Kyiv should be seen by millions of people with phones.

Time will tell.
Were you born ~, or after, 1985?
 

wxw456

New Member
Registered Member
Over on Reddit. They seem convinced that China is turning against Russia. Either way China been saying the same things since the start and a lot of them gloss over the article that US debt been frozen but Yuan can still be used. Guess it’s beneficial to China lol.
I am going to go against the common sentiment and bellicose war talk in this thread and say that the position of the Chinese government is A LOT more NEUTRAL than people think in this thread. The Chinese Foreign Minister and representatives have maintained the same positions throughout the entire crisis:
  • "China firmly advocates respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries ... This equally applies to the Ukraine issue." Under no circumstances will the Foreign Minister advocate for separatism in another sovereign nation. Yes, this includes Ukraine despite what some of the posters here believe. Defending Ukrainian territorial integrity is the equivalent of the PRC upholding the One China principle and staying consist with its opposition to Taiwan separatism. As a result the Foreign Ministry has shown no interest in recognizing the independance of the LPR and DPR.
  • "Given five consecutive rounds of NATO's eastward expansion, Russia's legitimate security demands should be taken seriously and properly addressed." China is warning NATO to not push a nuclear-armed Russia into a corner. China not putting sanctions on Russia is the policy implementation of the previous statement. However, it is NOT an endorsement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • "We believe that all countries should settle international disputes in a peaceful way in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter." For some reason this statement just flies over everyone's head here. The Chinese Foreign Ministry advocates for a peaceful solution through negotiation. This is consistent with the following statement, "The Taiwan region’s peace hinges on the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, rather than fawning on foreign forces for arms sales and military support." The Foreign Ministry opposes US arms sales to Taiwan and remains consistent by not supporting both NATO arms sales/transfers to Ukraine and Russian arms sales/transfers to the separatist LPR and DPR. The Foreign Ministry does NOT endorse the Russian invasion/intervention in Ukraine because it also opposes foreign (US) intervention in its relations with Taiwan.
My perspective is that the government of China is not afraid of NATO at all from a security perspective. There is fundamentally no chance of winning a conventional war in China for ANY invader in the current world. The One China principle is the fundamental diplomatic redline backed by China's nuclear arsenal (yes this is a very realpolitik stance, but that does not mean China's entire foreign policy follows a cynical realpolitik view). China's response to hostile sanctions has consistently been internal development and improvement and not external aggression.

The Belt and Road Initiative is built on peaceful cooperation and trade between nations to foster friendly relations with China. Many developing nations are members of the BRI and do pay close attention to China's foreign diplomacy stances. The BRI is a long-term project that will continue beyond Xi Jinping's term at the head of the CPC and it will not be undermined just to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine. One must remember that the process of global decolonization that began in the 1950s is not even 100 years old at this point! The BRI has a long way to go in helping uplift its partners and China. The end goal for China is not war, the military and nuclear arsenal is just insurance for the unthinkable.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
I am going to go against the common sentiment and bellicose war talk in this thread and say that the position of the Chinese government is A LOT more NEUTRAL than people think in this thread. The Chinese Foreign Minister and representatives have maintained the same positions throughout the entire crisis:
  • "China firmly advocates respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries ... This equally applies to the Ukraine issue." Under no circumstances will the Foreign Minister advocate for separatism in another sovereign nation. Yes, this includes Ukraine despite what some of the posters here believe. Defending Ukrainian territorial integrity is the equivalent of the PRC upholding the One China principle and staying consist with its opposition to Taiwan separatism. As a result the Foreign Ministry has shown no interest in recognizing the independance of the LPR and DPR.
  • "Given five consecutive rounds of NATO's eastward expansion, Russia's legitimate security demands should be taken seriously and properly addressed." China is warning NATO to not push a nuclear-armed Russia into a corner. China not putting sanctions on Russia is the policy implementation of the previous statement. However, it is NOT an endorsement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • "We believe that all countries should settle international disputes in a peaceful way in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter." For some reason this statement just flies over everyone's head here. The Chinese Foreign Ministry advocates for a peaceful solution through negotiation. This is consistent with the following statement, "The Taiwan region’s peace hinges on the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, rather than fawning on foreign forces for arms sales and military support." The Foreign Ministry opposes US arms sales to Taiwan and remains consistent by not supporting both NATO arms sales/transfers to Ukraine and Russian arms sales/transfers to the separatist LPR and DPR. The Foreign Ministry does NOT endorse the Russian invasion/intervention in Ukraine because it also opposes foreign (US) intervention in its relations with Taiwan.
My perspective is that the government of China is not afraid of NATO at all from a security perspective. There is fundamentally no chance of winning a conventional war in China for ANY invader in the current world. The One China principle is the fundamental diplomatic redline backed by China's nuclear arsenal (yes this is a very realpolitik stance, but that does not mean China's entire foreign policy follows a cynical realpolitik view). China's response to hostile sanctions has consistently been internal development and improvement and not external aggression.

The Belt and Road Initiative is built on peaceful cooperation and trade between nations to foster friendly relations with China. Many developing nations are members of the BRI and do pay close attention to China's foreign diplomacy stances. The BRI is a long-term project that will continue beyond Xi Jinping's term at the head of the CPC and it will not be undermined just to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine. One must remember that the process of global decolonization that began in the 1950s is not even 100 years old at this point! The BRI has a long way to go in helping uplift its partners and China. The end goal for China is not war, the military and nuclear arsenal is just insurance for the unthinkable.
Of course, it’s neutral; instability does not benefit China!
 

Pendemic

New Member
Registered Member
No, stopping NATO expansion, diverting the resources of the West away from China and onto Ukraine are all beneficial to China. Of course China will not reprimand Russia, which only acts this way because the West forced it to by their own underhanded actions. Russia is China's most critical ally; China would have to be an unsavable fool to be peer-pressured into undermining Russia. Every nation's principles are self-centered; America doesn't care about democracy or freedom when it comes to the Saudis or national integrity/sovereinty when attacking small nations. Nobody is under the impression that China is different, and they are right. China must be self-serving as well, not some captain of principles at the cost of self.
Great point there. US openly considers China as its biggest threat but yet demands unconditional support from Beijing in condemning Russia. Only the naive believe in principles when it comes to geopolitics. All countries, big or small, align themselves in a certain manner out of self interest or survival and never because of conviction.
 

LesAdieux

Junior Member
The real risk of the Ukrainian conflict: the convoys from Poland, NATO's Ho Chi Minh Trail.

how will Putin deal with it? if he bombs the convoys within Poland, does that mean the Article 5? the Soviet Union paid the ultimate price for refrain from bombing Mujahideens camps within Pakistan. to drain a quagmire, you must cut off the supply.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
@anzha yeah bro! let them do it, usually Chihuahua bark a lot BUT no bite until the Big dog (Germany and Italy) does it which it won't....lol. In Europe follow what the Germans does, the others are just noises within a month the life cycle of this news will be exhausted and the viewers will move on then you will see all the Capital of Europe rush to Moscow to renew deals...lol. Reality Bites, You can't cut out the worlds largest commodity producer out of the market and rely on America to monopolized its distribution and be held hostage.
I say let the EU cut Russia out of SWIFT. They'll have to buy Russian gas in Euros or Rubles after that. Unlike USD or Euros, gas keeps your lights, heaters, and factories ON.

I forsee the US attempting to step in to supply gas to Europe. US O&G companies could get some windfall from this conflict. But Europe will be paying premium for American gas. Especially with O&G prices are soaring, American O&G corporations are gonna fleece the Europeans. Classic capitalism. Cost of living in Europe is gonna go even higher than it already is. Societal problems coming over the horizon.

If Europe is forced to go back to buying from Russia again. They'll have to bypass the Swift system and USD.

So all in all. Russia getting cut off from SWIFT is just bad for the West, no matter how they'll try to justify it. Simply because, gas is still more useful than currency.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top