I am going to go against the common sentiment and bellicose war talk in this thread and say that the position of the Chinese government is
A LOT more
NEUTRAL than people think in this thread. The Chinese Foreign Minister and representatives have maintained the same positions throughout the entire crisis:
- "China firmly advocates respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries ... This equally applies to the Ukraine issue." Under no circumstances will the Foreign Minister advocate for separatism in another sovereign nation. Yes, this includes Ukraine despite what some of the posters here believe. Defending Ukrainian territorial integrity is the equivalent of the PRC upholding the One China principle and staying consist with its opposition to Taiwan separatism. As a result the Foreign Ministry has shown no interest in recognizing the independance of the LPR and DPR.
- "Given five consecutive rounds of NATO's eastward expansion, Russia's legitimate security demands should be taken seriously and properly addressed." China is warning NATO to not push a nuclear-armed Russia into a corner. China not putting sanctions on Russia is the policy implementation of the previous statement. However, it is NOT an endorsement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- "We believe that all countries should settle international disputes in a peaceful way in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter." For some reason this statement just flies over everyone's head here. The Chinese Foreign Ministry advocates for a peaceful solution through negotiation. This is consistent with the following statement, "The Taiwan region’s peace hinges on the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, rather than fawning on foreign forces for arms sales and military support." The Foreign Ministry opposes US arms sales to Taiwan and remains consistent by not supporting both NATO arms sales/transfers to Ukraine and Russian arms sales/transfers to the separatist LPR and DPR. The Foreign Ministry does NOT endorse the Russian invasion/intervention in Ukraine because it also opposes foreign (US) intervention in its relations with Taiwan.
My perspective is that the government of China is not afraid of NATO at all from a security perspective. There is fundamentally no chance of winning a conventional war in China for
ANY invader in the current world. The One China principle is the fundamental diplomatic redline backed by China's nuclear arsenal (yes this is a very realpolitik stance, but that does not mean China's entire foreign policy follows a cynical realpolitik view). China's response to hostile sanctions has consistently been internal development and improvement and not external aggression.
The Belt and Road Initiative is built on
peaceful cooperation and trade between nations to foster
friendly relations with China. Many developing nations are members of the BRI and do pay close attention to China's foreign diplomacy stances. The BRI is a long-term project that will continue beyond Xi Jinping's term at the head of the CPC and it will not be undermined just to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine. One must remember that the process of global decolonization that began in the 1950s is not even 100 years old at this point! The BRI has a long way to go in helping uplift its partners and China. The end goal for China is not war, the military and nuclear arsenal is just insurance for the
unthinkable.