Ukrainian War Developments

asif iqbal said:

I do not support these US invasions

but two wrongs dont make a right

Click to expand...

Do not use childish principles on the international stage. There is no right or wrong because there is no judge. These are the highest powers in the world doing all they can to vie for an outcome. The West is underhanded; Russia can be more underhanded to beat them. America justifies killing innocent children because the Taliban "made" them do it as if not surrendering is the crime that led the US to commit those attrocities. Same thing applies to Russia; everything they had to do, they did because NATO forced them; it's all NATO's fault. If two wrongs don't make a right, then what's right? Complain about a wrong committed upon you while taking abuse and refuse to defend yourself with similar actions? Two wrongs don't make a right because there is no wrong or right; this is a fight. If your opponent hits, hit harder. If he's vicious, be more vicious. If he's underhanded, be more underhanded. There are no rules. Anything he does, you do better. Win at all costs for your nation and your people. And when it's over, you dictate what was right or wrong in the history books that you write as the winner. That's all there is to it. I support Russia no matter what they have to do and any attrocities committed are the fault of NATO for pushing Russia.

solarz said:

They won't, but that's not the point. I don't see Putin wanting to get into a lengthy occupation.

Click to expand...

That's what I see too.

The numbers employed by the Russians are not realistic for a long-term occupation, but they are realistic for a quick decapitation followed by a division of Ukraine into Russian-governable parts and a dysfunctional western part that Russia will eventually vacate but will likely demilitarize. Ukraine and the abandonment of any desire to join NATO. It just needs a proxy installed to sign. I think that's the Russian objective, the problem is that I don't see how this is possible in the long term, this neutrality of Ukraine, even if such agreements are signed, I think there would be new protests like Maidan.

Putin must have put on the table the open questions between dividing Ukraine into separate parts that will be duly annexed to Russia and a separate part on the western side so as not to have to bear the costs of a heavy military campaign and conquest as well as deploying troops. permanently on the west side who are not pro-Russian.

Which territories will be duly annexed to Russia?

Probably the entire coast of Ukraine and the entire east of the Dnieper River.

The western side of the territory would have to lay down their arms by virtue of a treaty and abandon the objective of joining NATO, but they will have autonomy from the Moscow regime.



In the map above, basically the blue part would be integrated into Russia.

solarz said:

They won't, but that's not the point. I don't see Putin wanting to get into a lengthy occupation.

Click to expand...

that will be western ukraine. i am not sure they want to give back control of water canal that goes to Crimea.

solarz said:

What's his alternative? Allow Ukraine to become a NATO stronghold? Russia would be screwed then. In any case, this is only day 2. I think Russia is going to pull a Vietnam (as in Sino-Vietnam war, not US-Vietnam war) and withdraw after making his point.

Click to expand...

I do agree that Russia will withdraw at a certain point, but not for the reason that you brought up. Ukraine may initially “learn” their lesson, but they can wait for the next opportunity to join NATO. One of the major demands from Russia towards Ukraine is a guaranteed, on the paper agreement that they will not join NATO in the present nor in the future. Unless China decides to backstab Russia or some other extraordinary event happens, I believe Russia will withdraw only when all of the key pro-Western figures in Ukraine get “neutralized” regardless of Ukraine’s status as a sovereign nation, a defeated and occupied one, or one that surrendered. They need to make sure that a pro-Russian Ukrainian government will stay there permanently.

Overbom said:

Spot on. I think the West went into an overdrive and didn't think carefully the sanctions.
They have escalated the economic war to such an extend that Russia could actually become a bigger version of N.Korea and possibly become a rogue state in order to destabilise the West.

Too many sticks from the West. They kept beating Russia with sticks for so long that Putin said f*ck it and turned over the table

Click to expand...

Yes, it seems Putin is after regime change. He will pull out once the military is run by commanders that are pro-Russia. If, at that time, the hard sanctions like kicking them out of SWIFT are put in place, the following could happen.

1. Russia withdraw sale of material critical for electronic chip making, things like semi-conductor grade neon, and palladium. The entire semi-conductor except China will come to a grinding halt.

2. No oil for the Europeans means their industries will also come to a grinding halt.

3. Further integration of the Russian economy with China.

4. If the harsh sanctions are not lifted some years down the road, they can contemplate taking over the Baltic states. Since these are NATO members, if we don't intervene, NATO is all but finished. If we do intervene, except the small border with Poland, there is no way to send support except by sea. Do we want to send in our carriers? In a small area like the Baltic Sea, they can easily sink them. Since all the sanctions are already in place, there is nothing more we can do.

The West got ourselves into this pickle when we kept expanding NATO to the Eastern European nations without any regard for Russia's security concerns. It is fine if we can back it up with our military, but we clearly don't have the means to do that.