Ukrainian War Developments

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j17wang

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The quickest way for the US/West to force its companies like Dell, Apple, IBM etc to exit the China and re-shore back in the US or say Vietnam, Mexico, India is to hit it at the chip/IC/semiconductor level... a broad categorical blanket and yet precise surgical strike.

Currently China does NOT have a fully indigenous 14nm much less 7nm, 5nm or 3nm etc...

But THAT isn't even the entire scope of the problem. If US did a blanket ban and told the likes of ARM/ Intel/TSMC to completely cut ties with all of China (and all Chinese entities, companies etc) then immediately overnight this means Dell, Apple, etc etc all have to pull its factories and supply chains out of China... even if China created a clone of the Intel x86 processor overnight the OEM cannot use it, its all structured to use Intel chipsets... its not that simple to plug in a new Chinese CPU etc etc... plus they would never get Microsoft to get on board to create drivers and kernels that support Chinese CPU! America "owns" most of the entire stack.

This is America's "nuclear option" in terms of striking China's tech ecosystem and supply chain... by making sure all chips (like Intel, AMD, Arm processors) are embargoed and forbidden to ship to China at all, in one fell swoop they can effectively force all integrators (yes even hanjian Lenovo) to move their entire supply chain out of China to rehome elsewhere...

Sure electronics worldwide would probably become an order of magnitude more expense for a while, but this would be the US option for digital "scorched earth" and its "rip and replace" on steroids that makes it 5G/Clean Network initiative look like childs play , its the cost the US would be willing to inflict on the rest of the planet in order to reroute and decouple tech supply chains to isolate China

It is the last card they have to play and its use it or lose it and if I was the US this is what I would do

Washington regime could theoretically do this, but this would be something that would take at a minimum months. China could hit back even harder by simply stopping the export of masks, PPE, other critical supplies in merely days. Yes, Washington could probably rebuild all of this (they went to the moon 50 years ago), but it takes time to build factories, get the steel, man the production lines. Forget stopping china's rise, Jimmy isnt going to have a pencil to go to school, let alone his laptop already cant get replaced.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Washington regime could theoretically do this, but this would be something that would take at a minimum months. China could hit back even harder by simply stopping the export of masks, PPE, other critical supplies in merely days. Yes, Washington could probably rebuild all of this (they went to the moon 50 years ago), but it takes time to build factories, get the steel, man the production lines. Forget stopping china's rise, Jimmy isnt going to have a pencil to go to school, let alone his laptop already cant get replaced.
USA running big trade deficit for manufactured goods .

Means if the USA want to replace the Chines supply they will need to quardruple the home industrial capacity.
 

xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
The quickest way for the US/West to force its companies like Dell, Apple, IBM etc to exit the China and re-shore back in the US or say Vietnam, Mexico, India is to hit it at the chip/IC/semiconductor level... a broad categorical blanket and yet precise surgical strike.

Currently China does NOT have a fully indigenous 14nm much less 7nm, 5nm or 3nm etc...

But THAT isn't even the entire scope of the problem. If US did a blanket ban and told the likes of ARM/ Intel/TSMC to completely cut ties with all of China (and all Chinese entities, companies etc) then immediately overnight this means Dell, Apple, etc etc all have to pull its factories and supply chains out of China... even if China created a clone of the Intel x86 processor overnight the OEM cannot use it, its all structured to use Intel chipsets... its not that simple to plug in a new Chinese CPU etc etc... plus they would never get Microsoft to get on board to create drivers and kernels that support Chinese CPU! America "owns" most of the entire stack.

This is America's "nuclear option" in terms of striking China's tech ecosystem and supply chain... by making sure all chips (like Intel, AMD, Arm processors) are embargoed and forbidden to ship to China at all, in one fell swoop they can effectively force all integrators (yes even hanjian Lenovo) to move their entire supply chain out of China to rehome elsewhere...

Sure electronics worldwide would probably become an order of magnitude more expense for a while, but this would be the US option for digital "scorched earth" and its "rip and replace" on steroids that makes it 5G/Clean Network initiative look like childs play , its the cost the US would be willing to inflict on the rest of the planet in order to reroute and decouple tech supply chains to isolate China

It is the last card they have to play and its use it or lose it and if I was the US this is what I would do
Neither of those countries you listed (Vietnam, Mexico, India) has enough semiconductor manufacturing ability to replace even existing capacities in China, lol - they lack everything from the tech to specialists.

You are right about calling it a nuclear option because it is mutually assured destruction on the US part - this move will not only make "everything more expensive", it will destroy hundreds and thousands of companies on the part of sanctioning countries, and the current undersupply will look like a joke. In addition to that, if China is fully barred from semiconductors, then they will simply stop exports of rare earths and the equipment to extract & refine them which will put not only semiconductors but many other industries to a halt all over the world. Every single piece of tech that uses chips would cease to exist for several years - Western regimes would collapse from internal unrest.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Neither of those countries has enough semiconductor manufacturing ability to replace even existing capacities in China, lol - they lack everything from the tech to specialists. You are right about calling it a nuclear action because it is mutually assured destruction on the US part - this move will not only make "everything more expensive", it will destroy hundreds and thousands of companies on the part of sanctioning countries, and the current undersupply will look like a joke compared to what will happen there. In addition to that, if China is fully barred from semiconductors, then they will simply stop exports of rare earths and the equipment to extract & refine them which will put not only semiconductors but all other industries to a halt all over the world.
Not on the same scale. China will have to ban all exports if the US goes scorched earth policy. Simply barring rare earths is not enough because such an action by the US isn’t just slowing China but an attempt to economically cripple China. Such an action must be met with equal response. If they are going nuclear on the economy then China must go nuclear as well.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Washington regime could theoretically do this, but this would be something that would take at a minimum months. China could hit back even harder by simply stopping the export of masks, PPE, other critical supplies in merely days. Yes, Washington could probably rebuild all of this (they went to the moon 50 years ago), but it takes time to build factories, get the steel, man the production lines. Forget stopping china's rise, Jimmy isnt going to have a pencil to go to school, let alone his laptop already cant get replaced.
High-end semiconductor is the chokepoint though... US can source pencils from anywhere, heck they can even conscript Canada and Mexico to be their cheap labor slaves... but China creating a complete high end semiconductor supply chain (including the tools and the tooling for the tools and the software design etc etc) is 10x to 100x as hard as say the US find an alternative source for rare earths or coercing an ally/vassal for raw materials or just straight out pirating shipments of medicine/PPE etc and putting those 11 carriers to good use on the high seas....

My point is semiconductor is the hard stuff, everything else that China can take away from US is much easier for US to replace or even go without than say China suddenly losing access to chips and chip making machines/materials... Yes China is catching up fast, but currently US has the advantage of having their entire tech stack, platforms and standards integrated into the global world economy and they have proven they are not shy to abuse their position to make sure China never overtakes or even so much as become peer competitor...

Chips are at the heart of the modern world and economy. Its not just about smartphones and gpus and computers, no chips no car, no airplane, no train, no nothing... its completely and categorically different than sourcing raw materials, we aren't talking about a different color of paint or a new country to get steel from etc... even raw earth is just a commodity. But high end IC is different. Its the one thing that is hardest to make/replace and even if China had a chip clone it would take as much effort for the global supply chain to have to redesign to accommodate Chinese chips than it would be for US to bully everyone to isolate China from the market/game/supplychain etc in a grand experiment of build back better / great reset

Plus I don't recall computer companies ever stopping shipment to Russia back in 2008/2014... its why I think this move is US hinting to China about the things to come if it doesn't capitulate and backstab Russia etc
 
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