Theoretically speaking, is it possible for Russia to annex ukraine up till the Dnieper River through military force? That seems like a very nice natural boundary but would involve crossing over 250~ km of enemy territory. Does russia have the military strength to accomplish that?
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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What's 250km for a modern mechanised military force? Arguably nothing.
Russia can theoretically annex Eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper river (good natural boundary) if it wants.
Your real question instead should be, do the benefits of annexing of Eastern Europe outweigh the consequences of taking this action
That's only known in Russia's national security elites.
I had to use the google translate, it gives good general idea about the situation, but won't give too much about the future development.
As I think about the imminent action after the failure to reach agreement with the USA ( 90% chance) should be two folded, one of the middle east, the other central america.
Russia needs to bring knife to the throat of the USA to change the situation, it will require installation of nucelar capable bombers and INFs to Venezuela or Cuba - few Tu-160 flown there in the past ,they need to establish a syrian like military base, with diesel submarines / airport for strategis bombers, and with few regiment Bastion / Kinzal.
Say 500 warhead should be enought - it could cover the east coast of USA from Venezuela, and the whole USA from Cuba.
IT will require significant money of course, but cheaper than a continous war in Ukraine.
The other should be INFs in Iran or Syria, or formal military alliance with iran/syria and iraq . Or same combinations of these.
Should be enought if the swep out the Turkish from Syria , and take over iraq with iran . A syria-iraq-iran axis would be the worst nightmare of ISrael and the USA.
I think the strongest counter Russia could make in the ME would be to announce an immediate mutual defense/weapons transfer pact with Iran in which they defend Iran’s right to develop nuclear weapons. THAT would quickly disabuse the Anglo/Zionist/Euros from their misapprehensions!
New name ZioNATO!
New name ZioNATO!
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Yep, especially given the alternative to Putin in Russia is far more anti west then Putin has ever been.
Speaking purely in theory here.
Russia has the strength to take what you asked, yes, assuming no outside intervention. To be honest, unless foreign troops were in place ahead of time, they could do so even with foreign intervention unless there was a massive and prolonged war. That's not in the cards, so, yes, Russia can take up to the Dniepr.
If Russia is going to do an invasion and annexation, then I don't think they would stop at the Dniepr. I think they will take the southwest as well (Odesa), cut any rump Ukraine off from the Black Sea and possibly link up with Transdnistra.
That said, I could see Russia creating a client state (Malorus?) instead of outright annexation. It would be a puppet, of course, but it would be a russophonic buffer between the west and Russia proper. It would also allow them to claim to be liberators rather than conquerors. If the Donbas is anything to go by, it would be a sh*tshow though.
I could also see the Russians taking all of Ukraine and installing a Lukashenko-like puppet.
What will happen? I don't know.
Rant time. About the situation and the thread here.
The whole thing is wildly sad. None of it needed to happen. Yanukovich really screwed up the response to the Maidan protests. They were in the process of dying out when he turned the water cannons on in winter in below freezing weather. Ukrainians did not like him, but the Left Bank despised Timoshenko et al for their rhetoric and stupid infighting. However, when you turn the water cannons on at that time, well, people who live in very cold places can understand.
Russia screwed up their response. Ukraine was not going to let into NATO any time soon, probably not in my life time and even if they had become full members of the European Union. Had Ukraine started the process to join the European Union, it is highly probable Ukraine might get stuck like Turkey has: there are far, far too many fundamental problems to let Ukraine in. Even so, had Ukraine passed the sniff test, then it still would have been beneficial for Russia. The borders of Ukraine are porous and corrupt: trade would have continued even if sanctions were ever levied on Russia. Money from the EU would have poured into Russia. Russia could have fully rebuilt its military without the economics hits Russia has taken. It could have also intervened even more so beyond Syria and Libya.
The post-Yanukovich government screwed up, but that had a lot to do with the fact they were as coherent as a scurry of methamphetamine addicted squirrels. They were worse than the Orange Revolution team.
Finally, America screwed up. Many, many times. There is a fundamental lack of understanding of the Russians and Russian culture. This has been wildly problematic since Clinton[1]. The dismissal of Russian needs and goals since the 1990s made this inevitable. The incident at the Pristina airport and the problems of Transdnistra should have been the writing on the wall Russia was going to respond badly at some point. The lack of US help when the banking crisis took place in the late 90s made average Russians turn against the US, too. Even Putin's attempted reset after 9/11 fell on deaf ears in Washington, DC, producing another screw-up. In addition, when Putin put the "Little Green Men" in Crimea, the US could have moved the 173rd into Crimea as well. No fighting would have happened if the Americas moved fast enough. The LGM may have melted away, the 173rd might have become peace keepers or Russia may have still received Crimea; however, the Donbas War would not have started. The reason the LGM were not wearing patches or insignia was to test how the West, especially, America would respond. Obama just talked. Russians - in my experience, from the poorest to the crazy richest - despise 'just talking' because, as the saying goes 'talk is cheap' and, in this case, it shows weakness in their mind. It made Russians believe the Budapest Memorandum was just more cheap talk - empty promises - by the Americans (and British).
In the end, people suffer and continue to suffer. There is still a war going on in the Donbas. OSCE negotiates a ceasefire every New Year's, but many, many people die every year from shelling and snipers. Thousands of mortar and larger shells are fired every year from the Ukrainian Army and the DNR, LNR, etc. militias.
People I know and love have been killed due to this stupidity. People have lost homes they have had for decades. People have died alone because their friends and family were forced from the places they grew up in. People I know and love have extreme PTSD from the horrible things they have seen. People became refugees on both Banks and on both sides be despised from coming from the other. I see people who used to be friends now spitting at each other over flags. People I knew and loved to have dinner with, verbally joist with, and ranged from members of the Party of Regions to die hard anti Russians who lost family to the Holodomor or even the NKVD (some were not young at all).
ALL parties are at fault. This is a massive tragedy. The incompetent Ukrainian governments. The uncaring, self absorbed and distracted Americans. The Russians. The Europeans. ALL of them. There are no heroes here. There is just incompetence, paranoia and stupidity. And vast oceans of propaganda.
Ok, enough. I had hoped this thread would be interesting and informative. It is always good to hear other points of view and have people evaluate sources, scenarios and give information/perspective they may only have. Instead, I see only braggadocio and ignorance. Sift through data and tone down rhetoric. There are a number of well connected people here who can do interesting analysis. Do that.
Rant over.
MODs: if you think I am out of line, nuke the post and chastise as you see fit.
1. I heard it told once - as a snarky commentary, not meant to be taken literally - after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia said to America, "Oh, good! We don't have to be enemies anymore! We can run the world together!" America is said to have replied, "Oh, good! We don't have to be enemies anymore! Now, I can ignore you!"
Russia doesn't want an annexed Ukraine, they want an independent, not aligned Ukraine.
If Ukraine under Russian control, or only Russian ally they need to deliver huge pille of money to them.
If we consider that Russia financed the leftover of Soviet Union and Eastern block, and the Russians needed to have low level of lving to give higher to the "borthers" the reluctance is easy to understand.
Just consider that Ukraine up to this date had a price tag of 10-20 billion since 2014, and the need of financing will increase by few billion each year compared to 2018 from 2025.
And all USA help only gave help to slow the sliding, not to change the course.
If Ukraine under Russian control, or only Russian ally they need to deliver huge pille of money to them.
If we consider that Russia financed the leftover of Soviet Union and Eastern block, and the Russians needed to have low level of lving to give higher to the "borthers" the reluctance is easy to understand.
Just consider that Ukraine up to this date had a price tag of 10-20 billion since 2014, and the need of financing will increase by few billion each year compared to 2018 from 2025.
And all USA help only gave help to slow the sliding, not to change the course.
It still baffles me how badly Yanukovych screwed up the protests. Running away to Russia was just a completely idiotic move.
It also showed me why it's important for every country to control foreign interference. The Americans won't bat an eye destroying your country as long as it brings them a little political benefit. Ukrainians got brainwashed to overthrow the government in the name of so called freedom and democracy and look where it left them.
That's why I fully support the NSL in Hong Kong and think it should in fact have been implemented years ago.
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