Ukrainian War Developments

emblem21 said:

It is all about timing right now given that the USA wants to focus most of its fire power on China that they want to take some of there important resources from Europe to Asia but the issue right now is that Ukraine can see right now that without USA backing, whether or not Russia intends to invade Ukraine, Ukraine has not much value right now other then being a weakening buffer state for Europe against Russia that is becoming poorer and poorer everyday so right now, the President of Ukraine is doing his best to provoke a conflict to try and prevent the USA/NATO from abandoning the nation it is own devices. Putin seeing this has to respond and given that he has chosen to be as hardline as he is in his response, this has scared the USA so much that they cannot fully withdraw from Europe to focus on China until they have worked things out with Russia but given that Russia sees this as an opportunity and given the current situation in the USA, is pushing back hard against NATO and the USA right now and is successfully diverting critical amounts of time where the USA could be fully focused on China, essentially making the situation worse for Biden. Also to note is that the reason that Putin can afford to push so hard now is because Russia and China are essentially allies right now due to the USA pushing against both their red lines when the USA should know damn well how that will honestly play out.

Keep in mind that the demands that Putin is making towards the USA and NATO are very unlikely to be allowed for given that if they do so and are made to pull back from Ukraine, this will become another great debacle comparable to the retreat of Afghanistan which will weaken the USA standing in the world even more, which is something that Biden cannot afford ever so he is trapped in a very hard place where he wants to fight China on its own, but Russia and a whole slew of issues is making this near impossible for him to do unless he makes real concessions, something he cannot do either unless he wishes to critically damage the US's standing in the world any further. In this situation, Putin alone cannot beat the west by himself although you have to admit, he did lead Russia back from the cliff that the previous leaders of Russia have lead them towards, but the combined forces of Russia, China and other likeminded nations can over a period of time push the USA into a true decline that cannot be salvaged if the cards are played properly which as the current event are know showing, they seem to be on the right track.

The USA is still the worlds super power but its resources are finite and the nation itself has issues that need to be solved in a matter of months or even days if they want to maintain their grip on the world but if Biden fails to focus on the real issues and continues to engage in saber rattling against Russia over Ukraine and China over Taiwan, well the very nation of the USA may be fast approaching its use by date. Also to note is that the whole 'Build, Back, Better' bill is basically shot dead by Joe Manchin or Biden's position is losing is security with each passing debacle and if his position is replaced by Kamala Harris, well the USA will finally have a crisis on its hands that will be much worse then what has already happened this year

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james smith esq said:

And, that’s one, and only one, of many more lines of, potentially plausible, analysis/interpretation!

It’s, obviously, a Putin’s Gambit. The salient questions are: is it based in accurate assessments/valid assumptions, and will it succeed.

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emblem21 said:

Oh well, all we can do is wait and see although given the current terms of events, the same can be said about whether the USA can magically bounce back in a magical fashion and still remain as the worlds super power with the current situation as chaotic as it is.
I can say as well that even if Putin is a genius or not, I can say that none of the leadership in the USA from Blinken, Austin, Nuland and Biden are all that smart either given the current amount of stuff ups that they gone through as of now and now look to make the situation even worse. Heck, as of now I can say the Xi is more qualified given his performance in regards to past crisis’s that he has successfully lead China through. For further evidence, look no further then his handling of the HK riots, Covid and the so called trade war. I for one am interested to see how things turn out as further speculation is only speculation but some conclusions can be drawn given how this year with Biden has gone, it isn’t positive at all

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james smith esq said:

Without offering any immature and erroneous assumptions about your sources of information or bases of interpretation, I’ll simply say this: we’ll see how this all plays out.

I’ll go ahead and predict that Putin gets nothing out of this performance other than a photo-op, for domestic-consumption, and nothing else! I’m sufficiently observant to assess that Putin is no international political genius and sufficiently mature to separate wishful thinking from realpolitik.

I’d love to see the “West’s” ass handed to it; but Putin ain’t the one to do it!

So, there’s my prediction! What’s yours?

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james smith esq said:

You won’t find any endorsements of the quality of US political leadership, or US foreign policy, coming from me. I do agree, however, with your endorsement of Xi!

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james smith esq said:

Without offering any immature and erroneous assumptions about your sources of information or bases of interpretation, I’ll simply say this: we’ll see how this all plays out.

I’ll go ahead and predict that Putin gets nothing out of this performance other than a photo-op, for domestic-consumption, and nothing else! I’m sufficiently observant to assess that Putin is no international political genius and sufficiently mature to separate wishful thinking from realpolitik.

I’d love to see the “West’s” ass handed to it; but Putin ain’t the one to do it!

So, there’s my prediction! What’s yours?

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Abominable said:

So to clarify, your prediction is that Ukraine will join NATO? As far as I can tell, it will be very difficult for them not to agree to at least some of his requests.

Putin has made his demands very clear. American politicians and the military brass are warmongers, but they are adept at killing unarmed civilians rather than competent militaries. As long as Putin sticks to his guns, there is very little space for the west to manoeuvre.

Say, for example, if Russia announces the reactivation of civilian cold war nuclear bunkers, what will the west's response be? Do you honestly believe America or any country in western Europe is prepared to tell their populations that they will need to do the same?

Why do you want the west's "ass" handed to them? With a name like that, you're obviously not a Brazilian.

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