Iraq 2 was one of the most one sided wars in modern history, and it took 6 weeks. We've not passed 24 hours of this conflict so it's premature to be saying much about how long the war is going to take.The war seems to me as if it will last longer than many of us; including the Russian military; expected with the Ukrainians finally making a significant effort to contest Russian advances. Most notable are efforts of the Ukrainian military to secure previously captured cities such as Schastia. However what we are seeing is the separation of the wheat from the chaff, the initial shock of the conflict and the adversity faced by the Ukrainian peoples will determine who will stay and fight and who will flee the country, eventually the wheat will be separated from the chaff and once they are able to reorganize themselves accordingly [assuming the Russian advanced becomes hindered by resistance] we may see a conflict that lasts anywhere from a week to a month with pockets of resistance and holdouts throughout occupied territory. This can already be seen in practice in places such as Sumy and Chernigiv where Russian and DPR/LNR forces have taken significant losses from Ukrainian resistance that has been able to mount a cohesive defense of those regions; especially when compared to the south of Ukraine where Ukrainian forces where unable to organize into a cohesive fighting force and were subsequently steamed rolled by Russian forces.
It is true that the vast majority of the Ukrainian government and military are cowards and have chosen to abandon their posts but there will be a persistence of committed die hard hold-outs and CIA backed and trained insurgents that will cause issues in the region far into the foreseeable future.
So far we can calculate Russian forces have lost the following based on available information and videos
*NOTE THIS IS A ROUGH ESTIMATE*
3 Confirmed Ka52/Ka50
Ukraine on the other hand has lost the vast majority of their Air-force, Air-Defense force as-well as it’s navy, however based on events today we can summarize that they have a few operational coastal missile batteries, at least two active air defense batteries [several kalibr missiles were intercepted earlier in the day] and some air elements persist however it is unlikely that they will last for much longer.
It is likely that we will see the war turn into an asymmetrical nightmare not too much different from previous conflicts we’ve seen, and with the west’s “commitment to defending the freedom of the Ukrainian people” I’m sure that there will be problems for years to come. This of course is all speculation and we will have to see what happens, however Russia very much holds all the cards.
The materiel losses do stand out, but then again Russians don't fight like NATO. They aren't afraid to get their hands dirty and acknowledge there will be losses. Look how they fought in Afghanistan, or even WW2.
I see no evidence of the conflict becoming asymmetrical warfare scenario. Ukrainians aren't Afghan tribals, they mostly live a western life and haven't grown up seeing daily violence. The neo-nazi groups may fight to the last man, then again they're cowards who can only kill civilians.
There may be some civil disobedience when cities like Kiev are occupied but that won't be a problem as we saw in Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Right now Zelensky is on the phone to NATO officials desperately asking, "about that support you promised, when is it coming?" As his country and all order around him collapses. NATO officials are telling him, "don't worry, it's on it's way. Keep fighting!".
As soon as he realises that it was all a lie and Ukraine isn't more important to Anglos than the price of gas at the pump he'll surrender and the war will be over. People in the west will post a few more Ukraine flags and edgy Putin memes on twitter and then will forget about Ukraine just like they did about Afghanistan.
