Only one so far.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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I think one of the goals of the Russian offensive is to take out the die hard ones as well as the capacity of the Ukrainian military to keep fighting. The West can replace some of the equipment lost, but the die hard soldiers are harder to replace, especially after this drubbing. If other Ukrainians hear what happen to those that stay and fight, it would be very difficult to recruit good soldiers that don't run at the first sound of gun fire.In my opinion,
The war seems to me as if it will last longer than many of us; including the Russian military; expected with the Ukrainians finally making a significant effort to contest Russian advances. Most notable are efforts of the Ukrainian military to secure previously captured cities such as Schastia. However what we are seeing is the separation of the wheat from the chaff, the initial shock of the conflict and the adversity faced by the Ukrainian peoples will determine who will stay and fight and who will flee the country, eventually the wheat will be separated from the chaff and once they are able to reorganize themselves accordingly [assuming the Russian advanced becomes hindered by resistance] we may see a conflict that lasts anywhere from a week to a month with pockets of resistance and holdouts throughout occupied territory. This can already be seen in practice in places such as Sumy and Chernigiv where Russian and DPR/LNR forces have taken significant losses from Ukrainian resistance that has been able to mount a cohesive defense of those regions; especially when compared to the south of Ukraine where Ukrainian forces where unable to organize into a cohesive fighting force and were subsequently steamed rolled by Russian forces.
It is true that the vast majority of the Ukrainian government and military are cowards and have chosen to abandon their posts but there will be a persistence of committed die hard hold-outs and CIA backed and trained insurgents that will cause issues in the region far into the foreseeable future.
So far we can calculate Russian forces have lost the following based on available information and videos
*NOTE THIS IS A ROUGH ESTIMATE*
3 Confirmed Ka52/Ka50
Ukraine on the other hand has lost the vast majority of their Air-force, Air-Defense force as-well as it’s navy, however based on events today we can summarize that they have a few operational coastal missile batteries, at least two active air defense batteries [several kalibr missiles were intercepted earlier in the day] and some air elements persist however it is unlikely that they will last for much longer.
It is likely that we will see the war turn into an asymmetrical nightmare not too much different from previous conflicts we’ve seen, and with the west’s “commitment to defending the freedom of the Ukrainian people” I’m sure that there will be problems for years to come. This of course is all speculation and we will have to see what happens, however Russia very much holds all the cards.
This is might be the first major warfare in the age of social media. Having said that the number of copes are amazing on Twitter and reddit, like TB2 drone vids recycling. All analysts who wrote about Russian advantage on Twitter are being trolled right now.
Some analysis
Given the situation, this is what the west will do, which is exactly how we got this mess in the first place. I highly doubt CCP will repeat the mistake. Xi didn't spend all these years courting Putin's friendship just to squander away the good wills like that. A friend in need is a friend indeed. I'm pretty sure Xi intends to demonstrate to Putin that China is the friend he can count on. China will assume a nurturing role instead of a dominating role in this partnership. In practical terms, it means China will stay neutral, avoiding getting entangled in any military conflicts on Russia's behave while supporting Russia through commercial trade, investment and economical aids. And these measures are likely non-predatory in nature in consideration of Russian sensitivity, a sensitivity that China shares. China is well aware of that (Putin's)Russia doesn't like to bow to anyone.
Events unfolded during the winter Olympics made me to believe Putin has finally hit the "f**k it" stage. The invasion of Ukraine cuts off Russia from the west and practically kills off any chance for a Reverse Nixon. This means Russia is now fully committed to the Russo-Sino partnership. By fully lean on China economically, China gets more market access to Russia and its sphere of influence. More importantly, Russia now has a vested interest in China's well being. Should China's fortune wane, so will Russia's. The strategic ramification is that Russia just might extend its nuclear umbrella to China should the need rises. China probably can hold its own against any nuclear power. But a Russia involvement would completely tip the balance scale. Should the partnership work out well, it might even afford Putin another trump card -- a full energy sanction on Europe, something the Soviet never did even at the height of the Cold War. Even more reasons for the Russians to be fully vested in China's well being.
Using video game analogy, Russia will be the warrior character in the fellowship that takes heat off China while China will be the spellcaster that cast buff/healing spells to make the warrior lasts longer than he would otherwise. Both can benefit from such partnership.
Yes, it's a strategic failure on Russia's part that they have to resort to violence, but I don't think things are that doom and gloom for the Russians. But for China, these are very auspicious developments. US might be a winner in the short term but I don't see many long term positives and I don't see any positive outcomes for Europe.
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I hope so, but it's looking unlikely right now because the company building the pipeline was already sanctioned yesterday... But it's possible that Germany is planning to get around the sanctions and keep the pipeline alive behind the scenes. If that happens, it will be a major loss to the US and NATO will continue to fracture.
Better a Chinese client state than getting balkanized by the US and friends.
If only you could arm all the keyboard warriors with rifles and get them to the front lines instead of social media!
This reminds me of #Kony2012, as if retweeting and tagging will accomplish anything.
How dare you mock the 101st Chairborne!
Just saw another report on Hostomel. Not posting anything until pix and video! Fool me once...
I also did not see this invasion coming and thought that Putin will consider the sanctions, but I think that Putin saw an opportunity and decided to sacrifice economics to change his strategic security situation. He has demonstrated military success in Georgia, Syria, Crimea, Kazakhstan and now Ukraine. Other nations in the periphery of Russia will now think twice before they make a move against Russia. I am sure a guy like Putin weigh his pro and cons very carefully and make a decision after deep analysis.
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