I was wrong too. I thought there would have been no conflict and Ukraine would have fulfilled Minsk II.
But the Ukrainian leadership are dumb like a ton of bricks. Dummies. They thought Russia was bluffing. It is the US which is bluffing.
The MIC appreciates the new weapons sales they will make. And the European project has stumbled again.
This is a massive step backwards. The EU ran again to daddy US. The US creates the problems and then profits from the solutions. The US is the world's greatest nation of snake oil salesmen. Admirable really. I should know.
One thing I got right though was that in the case of conflict Russia would do a massive blitz. So far it seems to be happening.
The final showdown with the Ukraine government isn't over yet though.