Ukrainian War Developments

Remember that Paul Wolfowitz had plans for the US to invade North Korea. They still keep pushing THAAD into South Korea and Aegis Ashore into Japan. Add the Aegis destroyers of the US, Japan, and South Korea, and the SM-6 upgrade. They only did not invade North Korea because they had to go into Afghanistan. The original US plan, as written in the PNAC, was simultaneous invasions of Iraq and North Korea. Then a later invasion of Iran. The US also keeps trying to peel Vietnam into the US orbit but has mostly failed thus far.

Anyway this is offtopic. I am getting way ahead of myself. It might just end with Ukraine.

He previously sanctioned his own countrymen??

Anlsvrthng said:

NATO hasn't got nuclear weapons.

UK,France,USA has.
NOT the NATO will attack the Russian soil with nuclear weapons, but one of the three nuclear weapons state.

Means they could expect retaliation if for any reason attack Russian soil due to an attack of non UK/France/USA soil.

Would worth the annihilation of Paris to get revenge for Poland?

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I know what you mean, but not exactly correct:

Nuclear sharing is a concept in NATO's policy of nuclear deterrence, which involves member countries without nuclear weapons of their own to be involved in delivering U.S. nuclear weapons. In NATO - Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.

Explained here:

Right now we have no direct evidence for Russian strikes on main cities. It all seems to be targeted attacks on the Army and military formations and bases.

gelgoog said:

Right now we have no direct evidence for Russian strikes on main cities. It all seems to be targeted attacks on the Army and military formations and bases.

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Ammunition/missiles are too valuable to be wasted on civilian targets

Live Cams showing Russian troop movement in Ukraine. Be patient, keep watching you'll see it.

"A peaceful European country is experiencing an unprovoked invasion unseen since the Second World War. Heartbreaking, tragic and totally senseless."


The salt is so much here. I am sure that the Middle East countries are feeling something called schadenfreude now. Especially Iraq and Afghanistan.

Your support for US caused untold destruction everywhere except Europe, however time is up now. For once, enjoy this disaster happening in your neighborhood

My three cents:

This is the map of indicative distances for the ongoing conflict. Distances between key operational objectives for Russian advance is in green. Red on black are indicative distances between important geographical points to provide better understanding of the theater.



For context: Ground campaign during the Gulf War in 1991 took place over similar distances and lasted five days. The war against Georgia in 2008 lasted for twelve days.

I'll cite my previous post on the order of battle for the air and land forces:


You can compare the forces and locations of air force units with the reports.

At the end of the post in the link you will find information on Russian amphibious capabilities currently stationed in the theater. They are not very extensive and are unlikely to contribute meaningfully to the ongoing operation.


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Now a quick speculation on the conditions for establishing a puppet government.

The maps below show results from 2020 local election to councils in oblasts and raions. Local governments will be fundamental to retaining control over the region without permanent occupation as the new authorities will have to field its own military which will only work with support from local authorities and at least a significant plurality of local populations.


Dark blue indicates areas where Oпозиційна платформа - За життя (Opposition Platform - For Life) had the highest electoral result. Note - it is not majority, just the plurality and outside of Donbas OPLF doesn't have the ability to form a government and will have to cooperate with a local party, usually led by the mayor of the largest city in the region. That can be achievable in Odessa (Gennadiy Trukhanov) and Kharkiv (Hennadiy Khernes) but will be more difficult in other dark blue regions.

"OP-FL" is the larger openly pro-Russian party with representation in the parliament (Verkhovna Rada). The other "Opposition Platform" party is the minor wing of the anti-EuroMaidan coalition and formerly part of the Party of Regions and doesn't play an important role country-wide.

This is the map of OP-FL support in 2019 parliamentary elections and the map of turnout by electoral district.

ILikeChina said:

If Putin would want to give NATO a punch, the only logical move is against the baltics countries, not Poland.

@MarKoz81:
Maybe you can answer.

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There will be no attack against NATO because that's an attack against a direct US security guarantee and therefore the US is obliged to respond.

Additionally all NATO countries in the region are also EU countries and unlike NATO the EU has an explicit clause on mutual defense so it would automatically involve the entire Union and would also trigger Sweden's and Finland's immediate de facto entry into NATO which changes the strategic situation in the Baltic region dramatically to Russia's disadvantage.

In my view this overt invasion of Ukraine is Russia's "all in" scenario. This is why the theatrics took place during the early morning hours.

Russia signals that it agrees to Ukraine becoming a destabilized buffer zone which in my understanding is acceptable to the US as well because the US is willing to trade influence in Ukraine for instability because it will increase its influence over EU's policy which is preferable to Washington.

I view this ongoing operation as a strategic failure on Russia's part. They are the major long-term losers in this conflict. The major winner is China which now won't need to wait long before it has full Russian dependency as a client state, just with nukes. The US is a minor winner and the EU is a minor loser.

Remember that violence is always a sign of weakness.

When two animals come to a contest it is always the weaker one that becomes aggressive first. Everything else is a deception and judging from the comments here too many of you have fallen for it. Germany didn't attack in 1939 or 1941 because it was strong but because it was weak. So did Japan. So did the US in Iraq in 1991 and 2003. So did Russia in Ukraine in 2022.

I'll leave you with this great quote from Isaac Asimov's "Foundation": "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."

Overbom said:

Agreed. Russian economy still has a long way to go until it reaches the bottom. New sanctions will.come which will tank the stock market even more

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After Monday, the market might stabilize or rebound.

Ukrainian soldiers surrendering. Take this with a grain of salt