Ukrainian War Developments

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Zichan

Junior Member
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ILikeChina said:
Today marks a huge strategic change.

I still try to grasp the effect of it, but could result the colapse of the industry and electrical grid in Europe due to sanctions , either by the EU or by Russia, reconsideration of the current security architecture of Europe, and generally the relationship with the USA.

In the past 12 hours the military alliance with the USA become a liability from being an asset.
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Winter is almost over in most of the EU. There are sufficient gas reserves to ride it out. The real concern will be next winter. Perhaps the Netherlands will have to make some sacrifices and back track on its decision to shut down the largest gas field in Europe. Germany would be wise to reconsider shutting down its nuclear reactors. There is substantial unused LNG capacity in the EU that will prove important for the months to come.
 
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Laviduce

Junior Member
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Overbom said:
"A peaceful European country is experiencing an unprovoked invasion unseen since the Second World War. Heartbreaking, tragic and totally senseless."
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496695693389537283


The salt is so much here. I am sure that the Middle East countries are feeling something called schadenfreude now. Especially Iraq and Afghanistan.

Your support for US caused untold destruction everywhere except Europe, however time is up now. For once, enjoy this disaster happening in your neighborhood
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The messed up part is that their support / tolerance of the illegal US backed regime change coup got Europe to the place it is today. That nutjob and their respective nutjob leaders should be happy that the world has not called them out and made them face justice for their crimes and complicity in US acts of aggression in Europe, the Middle East, Asia and elsewhere.

If Russia gets condemned and sanctioned for attacking a US installed regime in Ukraine then why is the US and its co-criminals escaping justice for Iraq, Syria, Libya, Ukraine, Kosovo, Hong Kong, Venezuela, etc.?

Rules for me and rules for thee , right ? This is a disgusting farce.

I really believed that the US and Western countries (US vassal states) were the good guys and everyone else that opposed them(us), particularly Russia and China, were the bad guys. Good God, was I gullible, stupid and naive.
 
Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
MarKoz81 said:
My three cents:

This is the map of indicative distances for the ongoing conflict. Distances between key operational objectives for Russian advance is in green. Red on black are indicative distances between important geographical points to provide better understanding of the theater.

View attachment 83400

For context: Ground campaign during the Gulf War in 1991 took place over similar distances and lasted five days. The war against Georgia in 2008 lasted for twelve days.

I'll cite my previous post on the order of battle for the air and land forces:

Ukrainian War Developments

Wrong thread.
www.sinodefenceforum.com

You can compare the forces and locations of air force units with the reports.

At the end of the post in the link you will find information on Russian amphibious capabilities currently stationed in the theater. They are not very extensive and are unlikely to contribute meaningfully to the ongoing operation.

Ukrainian War Developments

I'm asking people to make solid predictions just for this next week. Not long term. Let's see how accurate people are. I don't know is a perfectly acceptable answer. My prediction from last year is about a mil attack against Ukraine from Russia to happen in 2022 My prediction from some days...
www.sinodefenceforum.com

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Now a quick speculation on the conditions for establishing a puppet government.

The maps below show results from 2020 local election to councils in oblasts and raions. Local governments will be fundamental to retaining control over the region without permanent occupation as the new authorities will have to field its own military which will only work with support from local authorities and at least a significant plurality of local populations.

View attachment 83401
Dark blue indicates areas where Oпозиційна платформа - За життя (Opposition Platform - For Life) had the highest electoral result. Note - it is not majority, just the plurality and outside of Donbas OPLF doesn't have the ability to form a government and will have to cooperate with a local party, usually led by the mayor of the largest city in the region. That can be achievable in Odessa (Gennadiy Trukhanov) and Kharkiv (Hennadiy Khernes) but will be more difficult in other dark blue regions.

"OP-FL" is the larger openly pro-Russian party with representation in the parliament (Verkhovna Rada). The other "Opposition Platform" party is the minor wing of the anti-EuroMaidan coalition and formerly part of the Party of Regions and doesn't play an important role country-wide.

This is the map of OP-FL support in 2019 parliamentary elections and the map of turnout by electoral district.

View attachment 83402







There will be no attack against NATO because that's an attack against a direct US security guarantee and therefore the US is obliged to respond.

Additionally all NATO countries in the region are also EU countries and unlike NATO the EU has an explicit clause on mutual defense so it would automatically involve the entire Union and would also trigger Sweden's and Finland's immediate de facto entry into NATO which changes the strategic situation in the Baltic region dramatically to Russia's disadvantage.

In my view this overt invasion of Ukraine is Russia's "all in" scenario. This is why the theatrics took place during the early morning hours.

Russia signals that it agrees to Ukraine becoming a destabilized buffer zone which in my understanding is acceptable to the US as well because the US is willing to trade influence in Ukraine for instability because it will increase its influence over EU's policy which is preferable to Washington.

I view this ongoing operation as a strategic failure on Russia's part. They are the major long-term losers in this conflict. The major winner is China which now won't need to wait long before it has full Russian dependency as a client state, just with nukes. The US is a minor winner and the EU is a minor loser.

Remember that violence is always a sign of weakness.

When two animals come to a contest it is always the weaker one that becomes aggressive first. Everything else is a deception and judging from the comments here too many of you have fallen for it. Germany didn't attack in 1939 or 1941 because it was strong but because it was weak. So did Japan. So did the US in Iraq in 1991 and 2003. So did Russia in Ukraine in 2022.

I'll leave you with this great quote from Isaac Asimov's "Foundation": "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."
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In addition to what you said, this crisis means Biden's Indo-Pacific Plan is now dead on arrival.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
MarKoz81 said:
I view this ongoing operation as a strategic failure on Russia's part. They are the biggest long-term losers in this conflict. The biggest winner is China which now won't need to wait long before it has full Russian dependency as a client state. The US is a minor winner and the EU is a minor loser
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Agreed. Russia attacking Ukraine signals a strategic failure on its part.

Powerful nations (e.g. China) don't need to use military power because they have other far more useful ways to influence the international environment.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Zichan said:
Winter is almost over in most of the EU. There are sufficient gas reserves to ride it out. The real concern will be next winter.
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It can be pretty chilly in Europe until the end of April. It depends on the weather. Last year was really cold so this year might be too.
Hopefully it won't be too bad.

Zichan said:
Perhaps the Netherlands will have to make some sacrifices and back track on its decision to shut down the largest gas field in Europe.
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From what I understand it is almost depleted and the more you pump out the higher the risk of the soil subsiding and earthquakes.

Zichan said:
Germany would be wise to reconsider shutting down its nuclear reactors. There is substantial unused LNG capacity in the EU that will prove important for the months to come.
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Any reasonable person would delay the shutdown of the nuclear reactors. But I doubt there are any such people in the German Greens.
 
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