Ukrainian War Developments

gelgoog said:

The Ukrainian Neptune missile isn't less capable than most NATO anti shipping missiles. At least on paper. The best NATO anti ship missile is probably the Norwegian Naval Strike Missile. And I did hear rumors of possibly sending it to Ukraine. The Brimstone the UK was supposed to send is really short range and not really in same class of weapon.

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I can't believe I need to point this out, but I will.

If Ukraine had Neptune missiles, why has it taken this long to use them? Why didn't they use them when Russian ships were sat outside Odessa, or docked in Ukrainian ports? Clearly something has changed, and it's not the Ukrainians suddenly remembering they have Neptune missiles.

Or it's not because Neptune, like mine maybe.

Stealthflanker said:

Or it's not because Neptune, like mine maybe.

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Not sure mine could cause ammunition to explode? Possible, but more likely AShM.

Abominable said:

I can't believe I need to point this out, but I will.

If Ukraine had Neptune missiles, why has it taken this long to use them? Why didn't they use them when Russian ships were sat outside Odessa, or docked in Ukrainian ports? Clearly something has changed, and it's not the Ukrainians suddenly remembering they have Neptune missiles.

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Exactly.

It's likely it wasn't Neptune missile, but a NATO-supplied anti-ship missile they got recently (most likely from UK). For political reasons, it was either disguised as Neptune for political purposes or morale boosting reasons.

I think the loss of this cruiser maybe an serious moral embarrassment, but it is not a serious military loss. This cruiser’s role is broadly similar to those of the recommissioned Iowa class battleship that the US navy deployed. It looks formidable in peacetime, and that actually is the majority of its value and justification for existence In war t it is a glorified missile barge with negligible self defense capability and poor prospect for survival incongruous with it demand for trained men power. In war against any serious naval opponent it will never get within range to use its missile battery.

one should not be too fixated on its 10k tons. this ship is more an ornament then a seriously valuable military asset.

Abominable said:

I can't believe I need to point this out, but I will.

If Ukraine had Neptune missiles, why has it taken this long to use them? Why didn't they use them when Russian ships were sat outside Odessa, or docked in Ukrainian ports? Clearly something has changed, and it's not the Ukrainians suddenly remembering they have Neptune missiles.

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Alternative theory is that this ship was alone at time. so cannot fend off. some thing changed that either Russian lower there guards or deliberate sabotage.
i havent seen any report that this ship down anything. when there is persistance reports of drone downing in that area several times by other ship or ground defence. when there is S350 there is no need for anything else.

Maikeru said:

Not sure mine could cause ammunition to explode? Possible, but more likely AShM.

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In any case that ship was a relic of Soviet time without any upgrades. It was a sitting duck more or less if anything good was shot at him. What in the world you put that ship there ? It was a place holder more or less. Two slava class sunk in that war I think, the Ukrayina and the Moskva...it's half the ships that have been laid down in that class.

ISW & MilitaryLand updates:

So many little actions and reactions have led to this.

1. NATO has ISR aircrafts flying in the black sea. Sometimes very close to Crimea. Why the Russians not declare those areas as NFZ baffles me.
2. NATO are tacitly providing live-feed intel to Ukraine and now Ukraine was reportedly getting anti-ship missiles.
Put 2 and 2 together and we can be certain Ukraine had help in this incident.

3. A couple days ago a Gorshkov frigate, I think, shot down a TB-2 so right there, you can tell Ukraine were planning on targeting the Russia ships.
4. Despite being a Cruiser and having the S300F for SAM protection, you can argue the Gorshkov has better search, tracking, and engagement radars with 360 degrees coverage than the Cruiser. The cruiser is old and has poor sensors.

pmc said:

Alternative theory is that this ship was alone at time. so cannot fend off. some thing changed that either Russian lower there guards or deliberate sabotage.
i havent seen any report that this ship down anything. when there is persistance reports of drone downing in that area several times by other ship or ground defence. when there is S350 there is no need for anything else.

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I believe it's the simple fact that Russia lacks ships.
Russia doesn't have a lot of ships, that's a fact. If they even have 12 Gorshkov-class in commission right now, the situation would have been a lot different.