Ukrainian War Developments

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Zichan

Junior Member
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This is the kind of hypocritical reporting that Herman and Chomsky described in their book Manufacturing consent. Yes, it is true that Russia is not a signatory of the Convention on Cluster Munitions and that employing such weapons in urban areas constitutes indiscriminate application of firepower and therefore a war crime.

But guess what: the US is not a signatory either. The US and UK used nearly 13,000 cluster munitions containing an estimated 1.8 to 2 million submunitions in the three weeks of major combat in the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. Some of these were used in civilian areas.
On 2 April 2003, Dr Sadid Moussawi of Hilla Hospital, 100 km south of Baghdad, said 33 Iraqi civilians had been killed and more than 300 wounded in US air raids on a residential area when cluster munitions were used. “They are using cluster bombs,” he insisted. “We can tell from the distribution of shrapnel.”
In 1991, American forces dropped 24.5 million bomblets in 37 days. Keep in mind that these weapons have a bomblet dud rate of several percent. There is no way to defuse the bomblets: the only way to dispose of them is to destroy them with another explosive.
Yet, neither the US nor the UK were charged with war crimes, the latter of which continued to supply weapons and munitions to Saudi Arabia after it became clear that they used cluster weapons in Yemen.

 
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Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
You are wrong. If Russia shows weakness they will likely rearm even faster.


So what? It took the US 1 month and two weeks to capture Fallujah. Which was half the size and had a third the amount of defenders.


Kharkov is closer to Russia than Mariupol.


Oh look here. Someone who wants to get their gas supply cut off this year.


Russia is currently training their army which will get to fight WW3 if necessary. They did it in a smaller scale in Syria but this is the big one.


What makes you think NATO countries won't get invaded as well? The more equipment NATO sends into the Ukrainian meatgrinder, close to Russia's supply lines and population core, for Russia to destroy, the less equipment they will have for a Russian counter-offensive into their own territories.


They are doing ok. Not stellar but ok. It would have been nice to have less ground equipment losses, but the fact is Ukraine does have a lot of ground equipment of their own with similar upgrades to the one the Russians have.


Russia already sent Bastion units close to border with Finland. And in case you don't know, those Oniks missiles can have either conventional or nuclear warheads in them. These are "just" tactical nukes. With more explosive power than the bombs the US dropped in Japan on WW2. Thermonuclear.


They would like to capture the Azovstal plant as intact as possible. But if not possible they will blow it up yes.


You read too much Western analyst propaganda. Oil/gas is like 15% of Russian government budget or less. And most oil/gas produced in Russia is consumed in Russia, not exported.


German army de-mechanized not from lack of vehicle production, but from lack of fuel to run said vehicles. Near the end of the war they were running trucks with wood gas.
they were running out of vehicles and de-mechanizing even in 1942. In 1941, by looting the civilian motor pools from occupied territories the the germans accummukates enough motor vehicles to supply all three German army groups that drove into the soviet union with their own extensively mechanized components. By 1942 the Germans ran out of readily lootable motor vehicles from outside the army. To make up for shortfall in motor vehicle production, they had to extensively loot motor vehicles from the motor pools of army group center and army group north to bring the motorized components of army group south up to strength to conduct the summer 1942 offensive into the caucasus.

By 1943, the german army in the soviet union actually no longer have enough motor vehicles to even conduct deep penetration on just a single front. One of the selling points of the kursk offensive is it required relatively few motor vehicles to support it because the main offensive elements of german army would not venture nearly as far from their staging areas as they did in 1941 and 1942.

Basically, the german industry and industry of the occupied europe was never up to the task of supporting a army mechanized to the degree the german army was when she invaded the Soviet Union in june 1941. The initial degree of motorization was only achieved by a combination of build up done during a year’s hiatus in major land combat, and looting accumulated civilian motor pool.

Once the army in Russia failed to achieve a quick victory and became committed to sustained high intensity combat, the German army was bound to demechanize due to production inability to keep up with attrition.
 
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pmc

Major
Registered Member
Okey, so you're basically taking it from the perspective of "economic security" (I am not sure if this is correct term). Basically, you are observing from a perspective of comparing the economic damage on both side as the aftermath of a drastic worsening of relations.

Sure, that does make sense for a very war-like way of thinking, befitting of "战斗民族".

I was taking it more from the perspectives of developmental potentials.
I am referring that Russia was already building its economic and development system in opposition to Europe for very long time. it is just people not paying attention or not understanding it. The have adopted Anglo-German model of heavy engineering but it does not mean they left emerging tech like 5G, quantum, photonics, AI.
They started with Aurus Auto. the thing about his brand is that it has Van that Van was shown in Beijing during recent visit. I dont think RR or Bentley has Van.
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Well, there is no doubt that Russia is a Great Power country that is certainly above the level of the likes of Japan, France, Germany, UK alone, certainly on par with EU, US, China, etc., in terms of overall power and capabilities as a country. Nobody doubted it. And the aviation industry, as a whole, is the one of major pillars of Russian power.

I use the examples of France (Airbus) and Japan (semiconductor), not to mean that Russia is at their level. Not at all, Russia is definitely a level above them. What I was trying to say was that Boeing and Airbus purchasing components, parts and design works from Russian aerospace industry should not be an indication as the "strength" of Russian Aviation. Because these kind of trophies are below the level of Russia: countries like Japan and France can boast about their industry provided parts for Boeing and Airbus, Russia doing so would be out of place. This is because, just like you said, Japan and France are small countries with pretty narrow fields of technological expertise, they are component providers of one or two cutting edge areas of industry at most.
you are assuming they only invest for exports. rather it is that overproduction from same area that need export. i tend to think there will be less need for exports as productive manpower will be increasingly used in domestic aviation products.


Russian aviation should be the competitors of Boeing and Airbus. And to be honest, I sincerely hope to see that good future you are pointing at, for Russian aviation.
i agree. they starting with 100% approach to SSJ/MS21. separate production lines open for Tu-214/IL96M. its matter of manpower how much they want to scale up.
Okey, that's good know. By the way, what are some of the main advanced munitions used by Su-25SM3. I checked Wikipedia quickly, and it lists on there mostly old soviet era missiles, rockets and FAB's. Are they getting any new cool munitions? Care to tell us more about it?
most of ATGM/Rockets that will be included in attack chopper. the whole point of CAS is too have more distributed fire power of rockets/guns/ATGM variants to destroy maximum mobile units in one pass. it also seems to carry EW.
newer missiles are more modular adopted both for aircraft and attack choppers.
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Overbom

Brigadier
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Sky News says that Mariupol will likely fall within a day. I personally doubt it, but whatever, here is the video
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
If Ukrainians are executing POWs, and Russians are showing everyone how well they are treating Ukrainian POWs, the Ukrainians will carry on executing them.
You need to match what they're doing and do worse. That's what has happened in every war ever.
Not really. It will speed up operations for Russia if Ukrainian troops surrender in higher numbers. Ukraine is making things harder for themselves by abusing Russian POWs.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaking to Ukrainian soldiers conducting training on switchblade drones in Biloxi, Mississippi.
Those drones use GPS to get to the target and it is alleged that Russia is now using GPS jamming in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government has been sending specialists abroad to learn about newly acquired systems for better integration within their forces; the same can be logically assumed for newly inducted British anti-ship missiles.
If Ukraine still has a coastline to shoot their missiles from by the time they finish training that will be great for them I guess.

If they are rich enough to afford four or five hundreds of each sub type, than sure. But we all know Russia is not that rich.
Russia already has a plan to use a common engine across Su-30, Su-35, Su-34 variants. And the same radar in Su-30, Su-35. This is supposed to be rolled out with Su-30M2, Su-34M variants.

The reason is Russia had since time immemorial customarily began any war with a considerable deficit in the actual combat effectiveness of her forces.
This does not apply just to Russia. Any army with units without combat experience typically fails on several degrees. Training helps but is no replacement for actual combat.

but Russia is in trouble now because neither the numerical superiority during offensive, nor an enemy that must live off the land that could be denied by scorch earth policy applies to probable future hostility with Europe. Yet at the same time, Russia has not broken the old habit of beginning any hostility was a considerable deficit in the combat effectiveness of her forces.
It is precisely because they see a conflict is inevitable, and that they lack both strategic depth, and troops with enough combat experience, that Russia had to attack first. As for your claims their old Soviet doctrine of mass of numbers can't apply anymore, this is true. And it is why you see weapons systems like the Su-57 or T-14. Or programs like Ratnik. Which are designed to maximize troop survivability.

This brings up a good point. So there's a ton of public sources that say Russia has 12,500 tanks in total, including those held in reserve. Do we know how quickly those reserve tanks can be activated and brought on the battlefield, if the Russians wanted to do so?
I would say only a couple of thousand should be easy to put into service. Most of the others will be in deep storage and will likely take at least a couple days each to become operational. And most of those tanks won't be any good against modern tanks. The exception would be the T-90s in storage.

Use of chemical weapons designed to kill or cause serious injury to combatants would be a violation of numerous treaties to which Russia is a signatory. The gain seems minuscule for the resulting blow back. Logically the best option to smoke them out is to literally smoke them out, by using tear gas or particulate agents that doesn’t maim or kill in themselves but makes the air progressively more unbreathable.
Why would Russia use chemical weapons when they are winning in Mariupol? It makes no sense. Besides, Russia already eliminated its chemical weapons stockpile years ago.

I wouldn’t take it seriously. Since we don’t know how real this video is but…
Supposedly, Zelensky has ordered the invasion of Russia with the City of Belgorod as the target. Sounds like a suicide mission but whatever.
If they do attack Russian territory then Russia can use nukes according to their doctrine.

I've no idea why the Russians haven't developed a drone tank. It would cost them nothing to convert some of the old T-72s they have in stock. The autoloader makes it even easier. One person controlling drive and the main turret, then one person operating each of the guns independently.
They have. But those are only prototypes.

Congrats to Ukraine for getting the worst built T-72's along with the Czech ones.
Weren't the Iraqi T-72Ms during the Gulf War made in Poland? Makes sense how they are desperate for Leopard 2s now.
No kidding. Those are the tanks Saddam's "elite" Republican Guard used to have. Some say those Polish tanks are T-72A. But it is BS. The turret lacks the composite and quartz filler a real Soviet T-72A has. And Ukraine had hundreds of those. Problem is, they are probably in deep storage in Kharkov. These tanks are little better than T-72 Ural if they made no other upgrades.

I didn't mean that conquering more of Ukraine would fix Russia's issues with low life expectancy or fertility rates.
Russia has similar fertility indicators as the EU. And life expectancy was rising steadily all over Putin's term in power.

Ukraine was primarily in helicopter and marine engines. so that took a decade or two to replace them.
Actually some of the helicopter engines are still not replaced with Russian models. Like engines for small and medium helicopters. They are still on bench testing. e.g. for Ansat and Ka-60. But those were considered lower priority since the main user is civilian government functions not the military.

more like M577 Command Post Carrier and M109A6 Paladin
That looks like German cammo. I assume those are the M577s Germany sold to Lithuania. I doubt the Paladins are latest A6 version.
The Paladins use incompatible ammo compared to current Ukrainian stockpiles.

It does feel laughable, right? Zelensky has full responsibility for anything that happens to Medvedchuk. I am sure that the West will find ways to avoid saying that it is just hostage taking, since Medvedchuk is a Ukrainian citizen and not a combatant in service of Russia...
Russia has no responsibility in freeing a Ukrainian citizen. Regardless of him being detained in Ukraine against his civil rights or not.

Well, I myself is not on EU's side. If Russians feel that they don't see EU-Russia relations as important or even beneficial their country, then all the power to them for cutting down ties.
For geographical and cultural reasons it was their main and preferred trade partner. But if they can't be anymore, there are plenty of other, more suboptimal, but possible replacements.

Frankly Japan does not have much chance to be independent as its technological base is in narrrow fields and they are certainly not known for software. than you add declining population means not much surplus manpower to train for really complex battlefield.
Japan is also culturally isolated from large part of world.
Japan has a good software industry. But like you said cultural issues, their language, make it hard to export their software.

This Finland joining NATO move is probably design to thin out Russia military strength. And it is working.
There will be no end to it. Why even responding with sending heavy weaponry and manpower at the Finnish border. Russia should start waving its nuclear might to deter neighbors bringing Nato on Russia front yard.
They already did by showing Bastion with Oniks moving close to Finnish border.

I'm still curious on what are Russian forces doing in Belarus atm... are they regrouping and preparing for new North offensive or something else ?
Baranovichi airbase might still be full of Russian aircrafts.
Probably guarding Belarus against NATO incursion or Ukraine counter attack.

I disagree with this. Sounds like copium to me.
The PLA hasn't fought a war in decades and its training is getting stronger (And that's from its own assessments where it admits weak/string points)
Any army which gets into a war after a long time of peace makes all sorts of mistakes. And do not assume China is the exception to this rule.

Let's call it what it is, Russia's military reforms were (as usual) half-arsed and as a result they are now paying the price for it. Sprinkle a bit of Putin's hopium on "brother war" and you get this result.
As with any similarly ambitious reforms program the progress is pretty much uneven.
 
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