Ukrainian War Developments

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lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
Full speculation but I think there's only a few scenarios for Ukraine.

1. Ukraine gets beaten up and capitulates with federalization/regime change, separatists have a timetable to rejoin Ukraine but they control the entire Oblasts. Western Ukraine rises in rebellion.

2. Ukraine gets beaten up, doesn't capitulate and there's a new ceasefire border somewhere between Kviv and Transistria. Or along the Dnieper and parts of Southern Ukraine if Russia is less ambitious. There will be a puppet East Ukraine or occupied Ukraine as a buffer state.

3. Overrated Russian espionage actually achieves something like overthrowing Zelensky and pulling off a coup, paralyzing the government or mass defections/surrenders. Which leads to 1. but way less costly. 2014's failed Russian-backed uprisings showed us it only happens in movies or Tom Clancy novels.

4. Russia gets bogged down very early, achieves nothing and bad things happen inside Russia. May or may not involve NATO.
Ukraine is demolished on Russia's way out.

Nothing good for Russia or Ukraine in any scenario.
Ironically, if they sent "peacekeeping forces" into Ukraine in 2014 during the Euromaiden to support their puppet, it would have been less costly to Russia. But that's 100% hindsight.
 

hashtagpls

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm actually more surprised by the evident cowardice of NATO and by the anglo american Hawks who, for years have been promoting the idea of a Ragnarok style showdown with Russia to give meaning to their own empty soon to be expired, lives.

On the other hand, a conflict against China would be a different matter because it would be sold by anglo america as a war for white privilege, which for the white ruling classes of europe would be an existential crisis lest they be considered equal to Asians.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Full speculation but I think there's only a few scenarios for Ukraine.

1. Ukraine gets beaten up and capitulates with federalization/regime change, separatists have a timetable to rejoin Ukraine but they control the entire Oblasts. Western Ukraine rises in rebellion.

2. Ukraine gets beaten up, doesn't capitulate and there's a new ceasefire border somewhere between Kviv and Transistria. Or along the Dnieper and parts of Southern Ukraine if Russia is less ambitious. There will be a puppet East Ukraine or occupied Ukraine as a buffer state.

3. Overrated Russian espionage actually achieves something like overthrowing Zelensky and pulling off a coup, paralyzing the government or mass defections/surrenders. Which leads to 1. but way less costly. 2014's failed Russian-backed uprisings showed us it only happens in movies or Tom Clancy novels.

4. Russia gets bogged down very early, achieves nothing and bad things happen inside Russia. May or may not involve NATO.
Ukraine is demolished on Russia's way out.

Nothing good for Russia or Ukraine in any scenario.
Ironically, if they sent "peacekeeping forces" into Ukraine in 2014 during the Euromaiden to support their puppet, it would have been less costly to Russia. But that's 100% hindsight.
Why didn't Russia get bogged down in Crimea? Without outside involvement, I see no scenario where Ukraine is able to mount a meaningful resistance, either militarily or in a popular uprising. They failed in 2014 and the situation is worse for them today.

The two most likely options I see:
1. Russia invades and overthrows the current regime. Mass arrests of far right militia and anti Russian elements in Ukraine. Installation of a pro-Russian Belarus like regime. The perpetrators of the Odessa massacre get special treatment. A largely bloodless and quick war.
2. Ukraine agrees to all of Russian demands at the least minute including recognition of Crimea/Donbass and pledges not to join NATO.

The only hope for Ukraine would be the imposition of a no-fly zone over western Ukraine if conflict breaks out. However NATO have so far shown ZERO intention to get militarily involved in this conflict.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I wish you wouldn't take my response as personal, also I dislike repeating myself, but your criticism of Russian actions is serving the interest of the Westoids.
That's because you are insecure and oversensitive. I regularly post anti-US imperialism posts, see my 16 years of SDF posts.
Russia is China's ally in its efforts to resist Westoid imperialism.
So why doesn't China openly support Russia then at UNSC? Oh yea, because principles and international law does matter.
If you are for the benefit of China and support the spirit of Neutrality, you should at least keep your criticism of Russia to yourself.
If the Russia-China relationship will collapse because of legitimate criticism, then the foundations of the relationship must be built upon sand. Grow up.
Tell us a good reason why it is a good idea to bad mouth a friend who helps you against someone who wants to burn down your house?
Violation of international law and invasion of a sovereign independent country is literal fact. It is not "Bad mouthing" to speak literal fact, even if it is inconvenient to your pro-Russia narrative.
Countries don't need to have an official treaty to be considered allies. You are applying too much legal terms here, what I mean by an ally is that Russia is on China's side in its struggle against Westoid Imperialism.
So they are strongly 'aligned' or a 'comprehensive strategic partnership', not a real alliance. Russia-China are aligned, not allies.
And you do not need to support Russian actions, but supporting Ukraine even after they backstabbed China in favor of America is an Abnormal behavior.
This is a 'False Dilemma Logical Fallacy'.
  1. Favor Russia
  2. Favor America
but you ignored the 3rd choice:
  1. Favor neither (criticize imperialism by both Russia and America).
So please stop with these logical fallacies.
I never advocated for China to openly support Russia, where are you getting this idea from?
Good. China should not openly support Russia because it's actions are literally imperialism and violation of international law. China should stay neutral, and Russia needs help, it can get economic support from China.
What China is doing right now is excellent.
Oh, but I thought US was going to kill China, so why isn't China openly supporting Russia now?
Notice how China is not making derogatory comments in relation to Russian actions?
This is what Chinese Foreign Minister is saying:
In comments on Saturday while addressing the same conference in Munich, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said "
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"
So what Chinese FM Wang Yi is saying is respecting every country's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Guess who is that directed to?

Perhaps you should be doing the same if you truly subscribe to the idea of Neutrality.
If you read my 16 years of SDF posts you will see I regularly bash US imperialism.
Bashing Russia only serves the interest of Westoid propagandists. Why do you continue this path?
Because my brain is wired to detect bullshit, and I smell bullshit coming from Russian propaganda. Problem? I do the same with US propaganda too.
How is it a legitimate criticism when you didn't weigh in all factors like NATO expansion closer to Russia's heartland and Ukraine's hostility towards China?
This is legitimate criticism. I say US is an imperialistic power, and I say Russia is a imperialistic power, and I support China helping a weaker imperialist (Russia) against a strong imperialist (USA), it doesn't stop me from calling a spade a spade. Are you allergic to the truth?
And the Westoids are spreading disinformation in these countries as well through Westoid mainstream media about how China is out to exploit their countries and drown them in debt traps.
Thank you, if you read my 16 years of SDF posts you will see I regularly identify US imperialism and double-standard hypocrisy.
China's neutral stance won't bring much PR points if China's reputation is smeared 24/7 by Westoid media.
Thank you, if you read my 16 years of SDF posts you will see I regularly identify US imperialism and double-standard hypocrisy.
The KMT receiving donations from US during world war 2 doesn't change the fact that the Yeltsin leadership is a US puppet.
KMT receiving massive US aid means it's a US puppet, and even 'US puppet' KMT did not recognize Tibetan independence post-Qing collapse So why did alleged 'US puppet' Yeltsin recognize Ukrainian independence post-Soviet collapse? There is zero comparison between Tibet and Ukraine.
Oh, now you are asking for "Evidence", there are lots of information out there that clearly points out how the US has supported Yeltsin's government. It's easy to see unless you are completely blind to it.
Hey, US gov't supported China against Soviet Union after 1972, sending many advisers to China. Does that mean China is a 'US puppet'? It's so easy to twist anything as 'US puppet' that is really diminishes the value of your argument. Do you have any other evidence.

Russia is China's ally (or friend or partner if you prefer these terminologies instead). Russia's actions in its own turf are not at the expense of China's interest. The Westoids on the other hand is hell bent on destabilizing and dismembering China.
It's possible to be anti-US and anti-Russian imperialism at the same time. It's called being anti-Imperialism (Russian or American).
There is no point in hating Russia or labeling its actions as imperialist.
There is a point, and it's the reason why China remains neutral at UNSC. The point being, Russian actions are brazen violation of international law, so even China (a best friend) cannot openly support it at UNSC.

This thread as devolved into russiandefenceforum fest. It's my pleasure to call out double-standard hypocrisy from Russophiles like you.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I'm actually more surprised by the evident cowardice of NATO and by the anglo american Hawks who, for years have been promoting the idea of a Ragnarok style showdown with Russia to give meaning to their own empty soon to be expired, lives.

On the other hand, a conflict against China would be a different matter because it would be sold by anglo america as a war for white privilege, which for the white ruling classes of europe would be an existential crisis lest they be considered equal to Asians.
Agreed. If I was American, I'd be furious at my government right now. What's the point of having a trillion dollar a year military if you aren't going to use it?

The only countries America actually fights are poor third world countries. You can do that with a European style low spending military.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
So when someone (Yeltsin, Gorbachev) enact policies that serve the interest of the Westoids instead of their own country, or when the Westoids instigate a coup to install a Pro-Westoid government, (successful in Ukraine, failed in Hong Kong), or when someone parrots Westoid propaganda (aimed towards Russia and China), somehow they are not Westoid Puppets, is there a proper term for such individuals?
You can't just generalize anyone who disagrees with you as a "Westoid puppet", that is low-effort propaganda. You haven't shared evidence that Yeltsin/Gorbachev is a "Westoid puppet". It really doesn't make any sense.

I didn't label them Westoid puppets because I disagree with them. I call them puppets because they served Westoid interests at the expense of their own country's interests.
Ugh, you don't see the irony? Using your logic, since China adopting market reforms, that make China a "Westoid puppet" because Chinese economic reforms serves the interest of Westerners. It's such a convoluted and low-effort argument.
Low effort propaganda. What makes you think I am spreading propaganda? What do you think is my end goal here?
You accuse everyone who doesn't agree with you as "Westoid puppet" and want to bury the inconvenient fact of Russian violation of international law because it makes you uncomfortable or overly sensitive.... Grow up man.
But Yeltsin is a Westoid puppet. Just like Joshua Wong is a Westoid puppet. I dont see whats the problem here except your irrational hatred towards a Chinese ally (or friend) like Russia.
Go read my 16-years of SDF posts, I hate the US wayyyyy more than I hate Russia. I am naturally wired to detect bullshit propaganda and call it out. Problem?
Why not just keep it to yourself to live up to your golden rule of "Neutrality"?
Why not you read my 16-years of SDF posts and see how much anti-US imperialist post I have made?
Besides, Ukraine slapped China in the face in favor of the US.
This is once against a False Dilemma logical fallacy. You are making a false choice between pro-US or pro-Russia, but the third option is pro-nobody, because they are both imperialistic powers.
Supporting Ukraine after this despicable act is Abnormal.
Supporting violation of international law and invasion of a sovereign country is a despicable act.
Just an excuse to push your anti-Russian narrative which is NOT benefitting China at all but benefits China's Westoid bullies.
What's up with this False Dilemma logical fallacy. It's possible to be anti-Russia and anti-US imperialism at the same time. You make it appear like a false choice. Are you really that insecure and overly sensitive?
Really? I find that your affinity to Westoid propaganda is extremely more fulfilling for you.
I take extreme pleasure (genuine and sincere) calling out double-standard bullshit propaganda from people like you.
BTW is Russian propaganda aimed against China or the Westoids? Cause I bet you would agree that Westoid Propaganda is directed against both China and Russia. If Russian propaganda is not directed against China, then why are you so affected? You make no sense.
Please read up on a
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that you consistently keep on arguing.
Lets assume I regurgitate Russian propaganda, Is the so-called Genocide in Xinjiang a product of Russian propaganda or Westoid Propaganda? You seem very affected by Russian propaganda when its not targeting China at all. You on the other hand parrot Westoid Propaganda, you know, the same people who bash China 24/7.
Please read up on a
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that you consistently keep on arguing.
Neutrality doesn't involve bashing Russia.
Neutrality means I bash both US-imperialism and Russia-imperialism, I am fair. See my 16-year posting history on SDF.
So just keep it to yourself instead of serving Westoid propaganda efforts.
Why? Are you afraid that China-Russia relationship will implode because of minor legitimate criticisms? Grow up dude. This isn't Russiandefenceforums, I'm not obligated to suck Putin's suck (nor Biden's dick), so take your "pro-US shill" accusations and shove it up to the unknown darkness.

This is the internet, if you cannot argue with logic, then STFU. You can't tell someone to shutup because it makes you feel uncomfortable, and you are insecure, and overly sensitive to criticism.
 
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