Sabotage of railway tracks in Russia, near the border with Ukraine...
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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They've been taunting this bullshit for so long now. It'd be meaningless when those old junky Migs actually does make it to Ukraine. Might as well start training those ghosts of Kiev on F-16's instead, on borrow USD, seeing how slowly this war drags on.
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This exact thinking is why the Nazis got their asses kicked by Yugoslav partisans. The nexus of any future Ukrainian insurgency are their special forces and military vets. They will be backed by the west. The west has already begun training them for this. These insurgents can cross into Poland. They can recruit Ukrainian refugees to join them. If an insurgency has support in neighboring nations and if you can’t strike them you will lose. Poland is a nato state so Russian aerial assets can’t bomb militant positions. Ukraine got massive cities like Kiev, Kharkiv, Dnirpo, Odessa, Lviv. Taking these cities will be a bloody battle. Then the further west you go the more Banderist and hatred for Russia hotter. You will need manpower to take these places, to train local forces and support them if they face major difficulty.
Using local forces may work but as we saw in Afghanistan they can melt away without support. In eastern and southern Ukraine there is plenty pro Russian speakers to recruit and they will fight hard. Russia don’t need to support them. Once you go west it will be very difficult. Russia would have to support those local forces. Because the hatred for Russia is very hot in those lands. Any puppet govt will be delegitimized and if Russia ever pull back it will be like when the Afghan army collapsed. The Ukrainians hated Russia before this invasion and hate Russia even more. There will be an insurgency and the west will back and support it.
200k is not enough to take over a massive country like Ukraine. The logistics alone is a nightmare. Your thinking is totally in fantasy and makes no military sense. Those same citizens who take up arms can cross to Poland get training to become insurgents.
Random thought:
When this war is all over, Russia will have increased its total population by roughly 10 million people, going from 146 million to 156 million. So much for Russian demographic problems! I estimate they've added at least 5 million already with their conquests in the south and the east. Conquest baby, it pays off if you do it right.
When this war is all over, Russia will have increased its total population by roughly 10 million people, going from 146 million to 156 million. So much for Russian demographic problems! I estimate they've added at least 5 million already with their conquests in the south and the east. Conquest baby, it pays off if you do it right.
I do not believe that Russia will make any more attempts west of the Dnieper River beyond Kherson. Not even Mykolaiv and Odessa.
This is an example of poor discipline (which is not limited to Russia). It only increases resentment and makes reconciliation harder, and even the victor (if not genocidal and not a complete winner) has to reconciliate with the defeated somehow if they want to make productive use of conquest. It is not just moral, it is pragmatic to show restraint after winning.
One reason the KMT lost and the PLA won was because KMT warlords tolerated this sort of behavior while PLA generals shot any soldier who raped or looted. Civilians hated the KMT.
excessive cruelty by the victors is an example of might makes right but the corollary is nobody is mighty forever. when you're on top, it's advisable to set a good example so when you aren't, there's incentive to work with you. Some countries (not necessarily just Russia) unfortunately forget that and decide to maximize cruelty when they're winning. They should expect nothing when losing.
Well, actually, from what it looks like right now, it seems less and less probably that this will be one long war.
I think it's more probably that this will be multiple wars, with on and off fighting.
This is because the Ukrainians still aren't possessing/provided a credibly large and effective penetrating maneuver force, and they lack the air superiority to protect the maneuver operations (as well as the logistics and supplies in support) of such a forces.
Now that the US has passed a lend-lease program for Ukraine, the Ukrainians will have to make real gains in the east, in order to make it worth while for themselves and for the US.
For now, the Russians has the advantage of facing a Ukrainian military lacking both a credible maneuver force to do any large scale armored penetration operations, as well as the anti-air capability (at least) to cover for such operations. This is because it takes time for Ukrainian military use NATO's heavy equipment.
Those polish (and other) T72 won't do, as they are front line nations, which shouldn't deplete their own inventories of tanks (rapidly deployable, as manned by their own soldiers), in a strategic consideration. Amour equipment (tanks and IFVs) should be supplied from rear line nations (German, France, Spain, Netherlands, the US, etc.), which aren't facing Russians in the front line. Especially now that such a maneuver would have been risky anyways when land units are exposed under the Russian-controlled sky. And we all know that Ukrainians are NOT trained and effective on these 120mm REAL Western tanks and IFVs (M1A2, Leclerc, Leo2, Bradley, Puma, Marder, CV90, etc., yes, these are the REAL western equipment, to rub it in the face of fake-white-countries).
This is why we should NOT listen to what the West says, we should look at what they are doing, to analyze what really is happening on the ground.
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That's why they need to be wiped out.
How are these insurgents going to get past border controls?
The idea that Ukraine is going to turn into Afghanistan is a western fantasy, not going to happen. Most likely it'll be another Belarus. Even if it did, Russians have handled counterinsurgencies fine.
Besides I think there's a good case for Russia invading Poland after this war. They've already sent a significant amount of their heavy weaponry to Ukraine. It would be challenging NATO authority directly, but in my opinion America won't do much.
The further west you go the easier it will be for the Russians. They won't need to be as careful to avoid civilian collateral damage. I'm sure no one in Russia will have a problem turning Lvov into Raqqa America style.
Why can't Russia do what they did in Syria? Blockade cities cutting off supplies until the defenders surrender? It's not about manpower and more about artillery and air power.
The solution to that is to keep fighting them until they stop hating Russia.
Why didn't any country in eastern Europe collapse after WW2?
You have no idea why the Afghan army collapsed. I did and I predicted it months before it happened (see the thread here).
How does increasing the number of soldiers improve logistics?
More western "Ukrainians will turn into Afghan warriors" delusions. There won't be any insurgency, and any Poles/Ukrainians crossing the border will just get shot or walk into a landmine. Why isn't there an insurgency in any city controlled by Russia right now? Its been a month now. Are they waiting for Ukraine to lose before starting the insurgency?
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